Is Kosovo heading towards extraordinary parliamentary elections and what would they bring?

There is a year and a half left until the end of the mandate of the current government in Kosovo, however, due to dissatisfaction due to unfulfilled promises and unilateral actions that created a crisis in the north and damaged relations with the international community, the opposition AAK requested a vote of no confidence in the government. The interlocutors of Kosovo Online state that there are two ways to hold new parliamentary elections, which, they say, are very difficult to achieve.

As they add, the calling of new parliamentary elections primarily depends on the number of deputies in the Assembly of Kosovo, where the current government has a stable majority, which prevents the opposition from ousting Albin Kurti from the post of Prime Minister.

Professor of constitutional law Mazllum Baraliu pointed out that the number of opposition MPs in the Kosovo parliament did not allow the overthrow of the current government and new elections.

"Regardless of the events in the north, which certainly affect the overall situation and stability in the country, the fall of the government or the continuation of the work of this coalition depends on the numbers in the Assembly of Kosovo. The entire opposition has less than 40 deputies in the parliament, so it does not have a sufficient number to overthrow the government. For now, it seems that the government is standing firmly on its feet, although President Osmani stated some time ago that there were disagreements on some issues," Baraliu said.

Analyst Blerim Burjani also assessed for Kosovo Online that the opposition currently did not have the power to overthrow Kurti.

"The option of overthrowing is not possible, because the opposition does not have 61 deputies to overthrow the government," Burjani says.

Another way for parliamentary elections in Kosovo to be called in the near future is for Kurti to resign, which, they say, is almost impossible.

In this regard, Baraliu states that Kurti will not hand over power easily, although he believes that the trust of the citizens should be "verified" in new elections.

"Kurti is quite rigid in his views. I do not believe that he will surrender easily, although the government and the coalition in power should verify the confidence of the voters, because of what they promised, they did not fulfill much. It would be healthy if the legitimacy and the confidence of the voters from the previous elections is verified in the new elections. However, I do not see the readiness of the ruling coalition for new elections. Even if Kurti resigns, it will be difficult to create a stable government that will contribute to solving the problems of the citizens, because these political disputes affect the everyday life of the citizens in Kosovo," Baraliu believes.

He states that the opposition is also aware that victory in the elections is difficult to achieve, which is why he states that PDK and LDK did not support the initiative of AAK to overthrow the government.

On the other hand, Burjani points out that, if the President of Kosovo Vjosa Osmani were to resign, the Self-Determination Movement would not be able to secure 81 votes in the parliament as needed for the election of a new president, which, he says, would immediately mean the end of Kurti's rule.

"That would mean that in 45 days, according to the Constitution of Kosovo, extraordinary elections must be organized. And if the parliament could not secure a majority for the election of a new president, that would be the end of the story about Kurti," Burjani says.

Our interlocutors add that there is a third way, which, taking into account Kosovo's current position and relations with world power centers, is more likely than the previous two, and that is for the international community to "interfere" and create a new political reality in Kosovo.

Baraliu states that the international community would achieve this in a very short period, but that it is not in their interest to have an unstable government in Kosovo.

"The international community could change the picture and mosaic of the situation in a very short time, but that would not suit them either, because any option that could follow potential elections would not be suitable for the international community either. They tried by holding the elections every two years, but no government was stable. Regardless of the attitudes and actions that they consider to respect constitutionality and legitimacy, the current government is the most stable. And the international community is satisfied with a stable coalition in the governments in the Balkans, and especially in Kosovo," Baraliu says.

Burjani, on the other hand, believes that the policy of Albin Kurti and his government can force the international community to take such a step.

"If Kurti continues to lead this kind of politics, with no way out and no point where he will stop himself. This whole process should turn towards a better situation in the north. At the moment, his policy looks more like a personal one than an institutional one. The political adventure has no goal, in the north, the sovereignty of Kosovo cannot be established without a dialogue with the Serbs," Burjani says, who, in the context of the current situation in the north of Kosovo, adds that the international community "needs to change its policy towards Serbia".

When asked what the new parliamentary elections would bring, Burjani says, "A new government without Kurti".

"New elections would give a coalition government made up of the opposition, and Kurti would not be a part of that government. In the second case, Kurti can agree to a transitional government without going to the elections, which would preserve minimal power, as the Prime Minister of the transitional government," Burjani believes.

However, just as the number of deputies in the assembly is important for overthrowing the government and holding extraordinary elections, the number of voters is important for electing a new political party.

Baraliu states that the support for the Self-Determination Movement among the citizens of Kosovo is still high, but not as in the previous elections, so, if the results of current surveys are taken into account, in the case of holding elections, the Self-Determination Movement would have to create a coalition with one of the opposition parties in order to re-create the majority in the Assembly.

"I don't know how much you should believe it, but according to research, the Self-Determination Movement still has the majority of support, not like it had in the previous elections of 50 or more percent, but it has about 45 percent of support. Citizens' trust in the majority still refers to the Self-Determination Movement.  But I think that percentage if the elections are held in the near future, will not suit Self-Determination, because it would still have to form a government in a coalition with someone, and in that case, whoever it is from the previous parties that have proven that they are not capable of leading and stabilize Kosovo, it will not contribute much to a better composition of the government and leadership, i.e. governance in terms of leading the country forward. Whatever the composition of the eventual new government, it will not be as stable as the current one, in terms of numbers in the Assembly," Baraliu concluded.