Ivanov: Positions on Kosovo's status will not change until the dialogue concludes or geopolitical change occurs

Source: Kosovo Online

Helena Ivanov, a research associate at the Henry Jackson Research Center, says for Kosovo Online that the positions countries have taken regarding Kosovo's status will most likely remain the same until there is a fundamental change in the global geopolitical situation or until the dialogue on the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina concludes.

She says that there are three groups of countries that base their views on Kosovo's status on different motivators.

In the first group, Ivanov includes countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and many Western nations that firmly believe Kosovo is an independent state, as well as countries like Russia or China, which hold the view that Kosovo is part of Serbia, a stance that she notes is also based on principled grounds.

"The second group of countries is most likely waiting for the normalization dialogue process to finish, and depending on the outcome, they might change their position. But at this moment, while the dialogue is ongoing, they have no motivation to alter their stance. This group includes EU member states that have not recognized Kosovo as an independent state. Their primary motivation for non-recognition often stems from close partnerships with Serbia or internal political issues, such as in the case of Catalonia in Spain," Ivanov explains.

In her view, the third group consists of countries that have been heavily lobbied.

"This group includes, for instance, some African nations that have been persuaded to take a stance on Kosovo, one way or another. As long as the geopolitical situation remains as it is now, I don't think we should expect their positions to change. However, if there were a major shift in the global geopolitical landscape, it could potentially motivate some countries to reconsider their stance. The conclusion of the dialogue on the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina could also influence these countries' positions," Ivanov notes.

Despite the fact that there have been no new recognitions of Kosovo for four years, Ivanov believes that Pristina's partners are actively lobbying on this issue.

"Serbia is actively lobbying, and I believe Kosovo, along with its partners, is also lobbying. It should be noted, however, that there have been instances and 'threats' recently, especially since Pristina made several unilateral moves that the Quint countries did not necessarily agree with, suggesting that Kosovo's main and strongest partners, who have been lobbying for more countries to recognize Kosovo's independence, might reduce, minimize, or entirely withdraw their support for such lobbying efforts. Whether this has actually happened behind the scenes remains unclear, but I think both sides are engaged in intense lobbying, with certain limits to how successful that lobbying can be," Ivanov says.