Lower voter turnout in the elections and the distribution of power: Who stands to lose?

More than two million eligible voters will decide on 7 June, in the snap parliamentary elections, on the balance of power among political parties in Kosovo. Given that these will be the third parliamentary elections in the past year and a half, political analysts assess that voters are fatigued by repeated electoral cycles, which is expected to result in lower turnout. Sources speaking to Kosovo Online predict that, even in such circumstances, the Self-Determination Movement (Self-Determination) will maintain stable support levels, while assessing that party leader Albin Kurti’s claims of winning 60 percent of the vote are unrealistic, as Vjosa Osmani’s return to the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) threatens to “chip away” at the technical prime minister’s voter base.

Written by: Milena Miladinovic

According to the Central Election Commission, 2,092,174 voters are registered for the 7 June elections. Of that number, 1,959,962 voters reside in Kosovo, while 132,212 voters are registered abroad. According to the interlocutors interviewed by Kosovo Online, votes from the diaspora will largely determine the post-election distribution of political power in Kosovo. Should support from this electorate weaken, analysts believe that the percentage of votes won by Kosovo’s largest party – Self-Determination – would also decline.

Another important category are pensioners, who traditionally vote in large numbers, as well as women, who, according to research, have increasingly turned out at polling stations in recent years.

Analysts assess that, should turnout among these groups decline on 7 June, Self-Determination would suffer losses, although they still predict a stable percentage for Kurti.

Another factor expected to influence the final percentages is the return of Vjosa Osmani to the LDK, which, according to analysts, could “take away” part of Self-Determination’s electorate.

At a time when citizens are visibly exhausted by constant election cycles, analysts warn that the key factor for stability may be the willingness of the largest parties to compromise.

Smaller Percentage, but Not a Debacle

Stefan Surlic, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, told Kosovo Online that lower turnout in Kosovo’s 7 June elections would likely result in a lower percentage for Self-Determination, but that this should not be interpreted as a debacle for the movement or its leader Albin Kurti.

“In addition to lower turnout, we will probably see a lower percentage for Self-Determination, but we cannot speak of a debacle. Research conducted so far shows stable support for Self-Determination, but also that Albin Kurti’s claim that he will win 60 percent of the vote is unrealistic,” Surlic said.

According to Surlic, two factors will influence the post-election balance of power among the parties: Vjosa Osmani’s entry into the race and the international community.

“We now have a new factor – Vjosa Osmani’s direct return to the political arena – and she will manage to recover a certain percentage of support for the Democratic League of Kosovo. There is also the international factor, namely how they will behave, primarily the United States, and I believe that this will also affect voters’ choices,” he said.

Nevertheless, Surlic believes it is premature to conclude that Kurti is losing support.

“Even if he were to move into opposition, he has created such a strong nationalist narrative that the opposition would largely continue along his path regarding the Serbian community, which is unfortunately discouraging,” Surlic stated.

Self-Determination Loses Out

Milica Andric Rakic, Executive Director of the New Social Initiative, does not expect lower turnout, citing heightened competition among political parties, while describing the diaspora electorate as crucial in determining the post-election balance of power.

“There is a certain level of mobilization within the LDK. The party has, so to speak, been refreshed by Osmani’s return, although not everything is entirely clear there either, and it is evident that there are still many high-ranking party figures who oppose that decision or were not fully supportive of that kind of unification. However, the very fact that there is a visible degree of revitalization and mobilization within the LDK means that this could affect voters of Self-Determination or the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK). Therefore, despite the fact that these are the third elections within a short period, it is not impossible that turnout will remain roughly at the same level as last time. I would not be surprised if voter fatigue does not become apparent precisely because of the intensified competition among the parties,” Andric Rakic told Kosovo Online.

Regarding the Serbian community, she noted that turnout results remain almost unchanged year after year, while at the Kosovo-wide level there has been a noticeable increase in the number of women participating in elections. She added that this could positively affect the LDK, as Osmani may mobilize female voters.

As for age groups, the youngest voters – who are largely nationalist-oriented – participate the least, she said.

“If they fail to mobilize, this would mean that the ‘nationalist parties’ could achieve somewhat weaker results than their actual potential,” Andric Rakic added.

She emphasized that pensioners are the most regular voters, generally contributing to the results of parties currently in power, as ruling parties use their resources during election campaigns.

Nevertheless, she believes that the diaspora will once again be the decisive factor.

“The key factor here is diaspora turnout, because it was the diaspora that largely contributed to Self-Determination’s results. If, for some reason, turnout among that electorate declines, this could bring Self-Determination back to the result it achieved in February last year,” she said.

In the event of lower turnout, she believes that the largest parties – in this case Self-Determination – stand to lose the most.

“Self-Determination conditionally loses from lower turnout. The diaspora will primarily determine whether turnout increases or decreases. These are usually the votes that make the difference, so lower turnout does not suit the largest parties,” Andric Rakic stated.

Citizens Fatigued

Former diplomat Silje Ukshini said that citizens are tired of constant repeat elections. He assessed that Vjosa Osmani’s return to the LDK could weaken Self-Determination, but also warned that such a development could return Kosovo to a political deadlock.

Ukshini told Kosovo Online that compromise is essential.

“I think what most exhausts and frustrates citizens are the constant elections, because elections are meant to choose a team that governs the country, Kosovo. People now see elections merely as competition and an unwillingness to compromise. In the Balkans, compromise is wrongly interpreted as weakness. I believe there is a lack of willingness to compromise. Rugova made compromises from 2001 to 2004, Thaçi did so in 2014, and I think Kurti must also do the same. A small party without votes cannot make compromises – that responsibility lies with the large party. It has the votes. Someone may win even 70 percent in elections, but democracy is most effective when there is balance,” he said.

He added that if Osmani succeeds in attracting part of Self-Determination’s electorate, it will raise the question of “what comes next.”

“People hope that Vjosa Osmani might strengthen the LDK. If that happens, it will not be due to votes from the PDK, but from Self-Determination. That would mean Self-Determination losing five to six percent. And if it loses five to six percent, there will be problems regarding what comes next. If Kurti did not vote for Osmani in the previous mandate, I do not believe he will do so now,” Ukshini said.

On the other hand, he noted that Self-Determination leader Albin Kurti has repeatedly criticized the PDK, which further undermines the possibility of cooperation.

“If we end up having elections again in the autumn, this will truly become a tiresome Turkish soap opera,” Ukshini concluded.