What would the postponement of the Council of Ministers of the Council of Europe's vote on Kosovo's admission mean for Belgrade, and what would it mean for Pristina?

Has Kosovo completed the path it embarked on May 12, 2022, when it officially submitted an application for full membership in the Council of Europe, or will this game go into overtime will be known in two weeks. As the session of the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe approaches on May 16 and 17, during which the final word on Pristina's request is expected, forecasts increasingly suggest that the Committee's decision on this matter may be postponed.

The temperature before the Committee's session in Strasbourg was further raised by messages from Berlin. First, Frank Schwabe, head of the German delegation in the Council of Europe, assessed that the chances for Kosovo's admission are "50-50", and then German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who two days ago in a conversation with Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti, highlighted the importance of concrete steps in establishing the Community of Serb Municipalities in the context of Kosovo's request for membership in the Council of Europe.

"If the draft statute of the Community of Serb Municipalities is not sent to the Constitutional Court, as far as I know, the vote will be postponed for a year," recently stated Lulzim Peci, director of the Kipred Institute in Pristina. Journalist and publicist Veton Surroi stated yesterday that there is a possibility that, despite the recommendation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the Committee of Ministers may postpone Kosovo's membership until next year, and he also mentioned an "even worse" option - that the vote on Kosovo's admission takes place, but the necessary two-thirds of the votes are not achieved.

What would the postponement of the vote at the Committee mean for Belgrade, and what for Pristina? Could Belgrade turn the numbers in its favor during that period, and would Pristina be more motivated by such a development of events to roll up its sleeves and form the Community of Serb Municipalities?

Dunja Simonovic Bratic, a member of the Serbian Assembly delegation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, says that if the decision-making at the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe were postponed, it would mean that there is awareness that what was attempted with Kosovo is a legal inversion and that it would open Pandora's box for all other separatists and factions across various member states of the Council of Europe.

"Every postponement is precious to us and would be a diplomatic success. These are our wishes and hopes, although each of us naturally wants this postponement to be forever, that is, that their plan to enter the Council of Europe never materializes," says Simonovic Bratic for Kosovo Online.

She points out that since the adoption of the report by Dora Bakoyannis in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, several indicative events have occurred, one of which is the statement by Frank Schwabe, who is also the president of the Socialist, Democrats, and Greens group in PACE, about the 50-50 chances for Kosovo's entry into the Council of Europe.

"This was not his stance during the assembly session and before the adoption of the report. They had already started, in a way, to create an exit strategy, which we saw from statements criticizing Serbs in Kosovo for actually obstructing the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities (CSM). This is somehow a minor German maneuver for an exit strategy if they fail to secure the necessary majority," says Simonovic Bratic.

She adds that what has also been "exposed" in the meantime, which is good for Serbia's negotiating position, is that the President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, stated what their path in the Council of Europe means. She believes this indicates that their goal is not what they advocated for in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) and for which they received support.

"It's not the primary thesis that Serbs, as a minority, would have greater rights by entering the Council of Europe and accessing the European Court of Human Rights, but rather the idea is to continue terrorizing Serbs, seeking damages, and trying to divert attention from the trials of Thaci, Veseli, and others. In this context, I would say that more favorable winds have arisen in these two weeks since the report was passed, and many members of parliament are expressing that it is indeed necessary for the CSM to be formed and that it would be a proper condition for the so-called Kosovo's entry into the Council of Europe. These statements are indicative that we might succeed in obtaining this postponement. The entire state leadership is engaged 24 hours a day on this topic. Everyone has joined at the highest level in lobbying and presenting facts to countries that may not have insight into all this," states the Serbian MP.

Asked whether a postponement of the decision on Kosovo's admission would motivate Pristina to form the CSM sooner, Simonovic Bratic says that Pristina looks to do nothing.

"They had a constitutional ruling on Visoki Decani monastery and did not implement it for eight years. In this case, they would look to buy time and perhaps submit the CSM statute to the Constitutional Court, but we all know how sensitive this issue is and how necessary it is to create conditions for its formation, then to negotiate all the details. It's not something that can be resolved with one decision, so I don't believe they would actually work on the ground. And, of course, they rely on the help of their mentors, mostly Germans, to actually do nothing but get everything handed to them on a silver platter, as they have mostly received so far," emphasizes Simonovic Bratic.

Analyst Afrim Hoti does not believe in the scenario of postponing the decision at the session of the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe; he expects a positive outcome for Pristina. According to his assessment, membership in this organization is a completely separate process from the obligations that arise for Kosovo and Serbia from the Brussels dialogue.

Hoti, speaking to Kosovo Online, bases his belief that Kosovo will become a member of the Council of Europe this month on the recommendation made by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe during its session in April, and as he adds, it appears that all European countries that are members of the Council of Europe have already decided in favor of Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe. "Whatever statements come, whether from Europe or from Kosovo and Serbia, they have no impact because the general impression is that Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe is the best way to protect human rights, including minority rights. Kosovo will definitely get membership in the Council of Europe," Hoti believes.

Regarding the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities, he says that it is an obligation of the Kosovo authorities and he believes that it will be fulfilled.

Foreign policy commentator Miroslav Stojanovic tells Kosovo Online that the possibility of postponing the decision on Kosovo's request to become a member of the Council of Europe at the session of the Committee of Ministers this month is more in the media spotlight than in political circles, and we are not sure what is brewing behind the scenes, but certainly, the uncertainty at the Committee of Ministers is much greater than it was at the level of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe where party delegations appear.

"In the Committee, it's the governments, or states, that appear and the balance of power is different. The Committee could probably discuss, as scheduled on May 16, and if it is assessed that the outcome of that vote is not convincing in favor of Pristina then there could be a postponement. That would be a chance for Belgrade, if it has already been late in the diplomatic offensive, because this could not have been a surprise, to make up for it and somehow more seriously influence those countries that still do not know what to do when precedents are being set. Because now many in the world, especially in Europe, are aware that one precedent creates new precedents and can boomerang back to other countries. Specifically, this now affects us but such situations can occur in one form or another in other countries," says Stojanovic.

He highlights that it is problematic how states that explicitly do not recognize Kosovo will behave because there is "some kind of diplomatic tightrope walking and cunning that is quite two-faced."

"To save face before their public opinion, some of these countries resort to a variant that is legitimate but not always honorable, by abstaining, while the trains pass because the votes 'for' and 'against' are counted. This is the case announced by Greece which says it will not recognize Kosovo but their Minister of Foreign Affairs says they will be abstinent in this vote," Stojanovic states.

If the decision of the Committee of Ministers were postponed for some period, our interlocutor believes, Belgrade could act a bit more strongly towards countries that are weighing what to do, but it could not change "sealed" stances.

Asked whether a postponement of the decision would motivate Pristina to form the Community of Serb Municipalities as soon as possible, Stojanovic says it is possible that the Kosovo side might make a gesture around the CSM but that it would not functionally mean anything because, as he emphasizes, the CSM is "rapidly being substantively emptied." "No one more than those who would shape the CSM and the international organizations and foundations that help Kosovo on this matter mentions the Brussels agreements, which specifically stipulated what the content of the CSM would be. The CSM has been cleverly removed from the PACE because it could cause controversy and not be voted on as it was voted on and returned to the realm of so-called international treaties so that it would not be in the realm of human rights," Stojanovic points out.

The Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe consists of the foreign ministers of the 46 member states of this organization or their permanent representatives in Strasbourg.

The report by Greek MP Dora Bakoyannis recommending Kosovo's admission to the Council of Europe was supported by 131 members of the PACE, with 29 against and 11 abstaining, on the vote held on April 16 in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.