Vujinovic: The main message of the pre-election campaign will be who is to blame for the new elections

Security studies researcher Nikola Vujinovic believes that the main message of the pre-election campaign in the snap elections, which begins today, will be who is to blame for the new elections, while messages toward the end will relate to the decision of the Council of the European Union on lifting sanctions on Kosovo.

Vujinovic told Kosovo Online that during the campaign both sides, Self-Determination and the opposition parties, will level accusations against each other.

“The essence is that only one new message has emerged, one new dimension of the campaign, and that is who is to blame for us going to snap parliamentary elections. The paradox of this whole debate is that both sides criticize the other for something the other side actually accepts. So, the opposition criticizes Self-Determination for being to blame for the failure to form a government because it did not want partners and a coalition, but wanted someone to support it, meaning a minority government, which Self-Determination itself confirms. On the other hand, Self-Determination criticizes the opposition for not wanting in any way to support Self-Determination so that the government would be functional, which the opposition also confirms,” Vujinovic says.

He added that campaign messages will also depend on the decision on whether the sanctions imposed by the EU on Kosovo will remain in force, be fully lifted, or be lifted gradually in the coming months.

“If there is no lifting of measures, the opposition will use that very sharply against Self-Determination. If there is at least some minimal lifting, even a postponement, for example for the next three months, Self-Determination will use that and say that the opposition is not on the right path when it claims that Kurti has quarreled Kosovo with the whole world,” Vujinovic noted.

Voter fatigue certainly exists and people living in Kosovo will definitely turn out in smaller numbers, Vujinovic assesses, but, as he adds, around 120,000 votes from the diaspora are expected, either in Kosovo or by mail.

“In that way turnout will be leveled out, but I do not expect it to exceed 40 percent, because there truly is election fatigue. On the other hand, each political party is trying to consolidate its voter base, while it is noticeable that the opposition is trying to further reduce the percentage of Self-Determination, especially in the diaspora, where we see that the campaign has essentially been conducted from day one,” Vujinovic emphasized.

According to him, Serbs are already part of the campaign of Albanian parties, and messages against them will, he believes, be particularly strong as the campaign approaches its end.

“They already are a topic, though not as dominant as I would expect. You can see how the Serb List and its candidates are being harassed. I expect messages against Serbs to be strong toward the very end of the campaign. The thing is that both sides, Self-Determination and the opposition Albanian parties, have already said that they do not want any cooperation with the Serb List, and that was one of the reasons why there was no new government, because Serb MPs will be decisive in the question of who will form the government,” our interlocutor said.

Vujinovic said that a weak coalition government would suit the Serbian community the most, as it would be susceptible to international influence, but that everything depends on whether Albin Kurti is ready to give up the prime minister’s post to Bedri Hamza in exchange for the presidency.

“The fact is that a weak coalition government would suit the Serbian community the most. If PDK, LDK or AAK were to form a coalition government, because they would be susceptible to international influence, which would in some way help the Serbian community and local self-governments to somehow get out of that vicious circle of Self-Determination’s malpractice and hatred. But I am skeptical that this will happen. I agree with most analysts who believe that the election results will be similar. Then everything will depend, for example, on the relationship between Kurti and Hamza and whether Kurti is ready to hand over the prime minister’s post to Hamza in exchange for the presidency in the upcoming elections,” Vujinovic concluded.