Campaign and the North of Kosovo: Will Self-Determination mobilize its supporters around an already “well-developed” theme?

One month remains until the early parliamentary elections in Kosovo. The official campaign has not yet formally begun, although it is already fully underway, and analysts have little doubt that, as in previous campaigns, Self-Determination will seek to mobilize its supporters by placing the issue of northern Kosovo at the forefront.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

The campaign for the snap parliamentary elections officially begins on 17 December and will last until polling stations open on 28 December.

From the party that placed first in the regular elections on 9 February, but failed to form a government in the nine months that followed, no shift in strategy is expected compared to the one it adopted when it came to power in 2021—which means the focus will again be on issues related to northern Kosovo.

Political analyst Artan Muhaxhiri assessed yesterday that Self-Determination will again rely on a “populist, pseudo-patriotic and victimizing discourse,” concentrating on the north, bridges, and the Serb List.

“They had five years and billions in the budget, yet they did not deliver the change they promised,” Muhaxhiri said.

According to analyst Albin Krasniqi, Self-Determination uses artificially generated topics to create polarization that mobilizes its electorate, with one of the three main themes being: “who is aligned with the Serb List.”

Milica Andric Rakic, program manager at the NGO “Social Initiative,” told Kosovo Online that focusing on the north and Serbian institutions was a pattern seen in the previous Self-Determination campaign and that it is reasonable to expect it to be repeated.

“There was a lot of focus on North and South Mitrovica, on the concept of unification, and on the effects of changing realities on the ground in the north. These are essentially the biggest results of Self-Determination’s government in the past period, and they will surely highlight them. In addition, there will likely be emphasis on social policies, as can be seen from the numerous increases in various budgetary allocations. These are themes that Self-Determination ideologically promotes—Albanian ethno-nationalism and social policies,” Andric Rakic said.

According to Dragiša Mijacic, coordinator of the National Convention on the EU Working Group for Chapter 35, it is almost certain that Self-Determination will base its campaign for the 28 December elections on further pressure toward the Serb community.

He told Kosovo Online that the party has, for years, run a campaign exclusively tied to issues in the north.

“They came with the slogan of new jobs and justice. We have seen neither significant increases in jobs nor justice, but we have seen considerable pressure on the Serb community and everything that has taken place in the north,” Mijacic said.

However, he emphasized that the most important thing is that everything remains peaceful during the campaign.

“That there are no incidents—which would undoubtedly play to Self-Determination’s advantage. International actors and all other political stakeholders should work to prevent incidents, and that Self-Determination will base its campaign on further pressure against the Serb community is almost certain,” Mijacic underlined.

University professor Mazllum Baraliu told Kosovo Online that, after winning the last elections, Self-Determination consistently stated it would be engaged in the north and would, where possible, maintain direct contact with citizens from the Serb and other communities in the north and other parts of Kosovo—and that to some extent it succeeded.

According to him, credible data indicate that conditions in the north have improved for all citizens, including members of the Serb and other minority communities.

“Self-Determination believes that, in this regard, it has been successful—that it has invested and maintained contact, although it faces continuous obstacles from the Serb List and, in their view, from Belgrade as well, in terms of integrating citizens and developing the country in that area,” Baraliu said.

How all this will affect the upcoming elections depends, he added, on whether citizens are more dissatisfied with opposition parties or equally with all parties for everything that has happened in recent months, because the prolonged institutional vacuum has caused immeasurable damage.

“We shall see whom they trust more and whom they will grant higher support,” he noted.

Regarding expectations of how the caretaker government will treat the newly elected Serb mayors in the north, who will assume office next week, Baraliu pointed out that all political actors, including Self-Determination, have recognized the results of the local elections, and that there is nothing to dispute.

“Both the mayors and all other bodies will be there as provided by the Constitution and the laws of this country. The democratic will of the citizens will be respected, and I believe no one has either the intention or the possibility to prevent anyone from assuming their responsibilities at the local level. There will be no obstacles—nor can there be—because all of us in the Balkans, especially Kosovo, are under close scrutiny from the international community,” Baraliu said.

Mijacic also stressed that the process of transferring authority in the northern municipalities will be under intense observation by both domestic and international public opinion, which is why he believes it is unlikely that, before 28 December, the new local authorities will come under pressure from the central government.

“I think this will be set aside at least until the campaign is over,” Mijacic noted.

Andric Rakic, however, considers conflicts between the Kosovo caretaker government and the new mayors inevitable.

“There will be attempts to block certain changes that the mayors, I assume, will strive to implement, so the stabilization period will be very interesting. In that context, we already have warnings from the European Union that one of the conditions for lifting the punitive measures against Kosovo is a peaceful transfer of power,” she concluded.