Instead of the Berlin Wall, a political wall has been built between the west and Russia

Beograd_240125_Željko Šajn 05
Source: Kosovo Online

Written for Kosovo Online by Zeljko Sajn

The Republic of North Macedonia, marking two decades of waiting in the antechamber of Brussels, has been sidelined in its European prospects due to the hypocritical policy of European Union leaders. Euro-Atlantic integration has been halted by the bilateral policies of neighboring countries, which deviate from the general foreign policy of the European Union.

The newly appointed EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, stated in the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament that the mood for EU expansion is now visibly more positive than in previous years, and she hopes that during this term of the European Commission, at least one country from the enlargement process will reach the "finish line." When it comes to North Macedonia, it must first implement constitutional changes.

How long this process will take is uncertain, as on one hand, the EU does not provide guarantees to North Macedonia for an unobstructed path to integration, and on the other hand, with the inauguration of Donald Trump, an unstoppable process of forming a multipolar world begins. It is an open question whether it can be shaped without major conflicts, through constructive agreements, as the current crisis has demolished the unity between the West and Russia.

Figuratively speaking, instead of the Berlin Wall, which existed between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, a political wall has been built between the West and Russia. These global currents in building a new multipolar world will also affect the status of the EU and its expansion to new member states, raising the question of whether the EU will maintain the supranational status it gained back in 1951 with the integration of Belgium, France, Italy, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.

North Macedonia's primary strategic goal remains accession to the European Union, but its perspective on Euro-integration processes is not guaranteed even by the security and defense partnership agreement with the European Union, signed last year. The leadership of this country, led by the VMRO-DPMNE party with Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski at the helm, sees the greatest hope for support on the Euro-integration path in the USA, with which it has signed a military-political strategic agreement since Macedonia's independence from Yugoslavia. They hope the Americans will persuade Bulgaria to remove the barrier on Macedonia's path to EU integration and prevent other neighbors from interfering in this strategic goal.

The optimism with which Macedonian Prime Minister Mickoski will return from Washington, where he will attend Trump's inauguration as the only statesman from the region, will be seen after his return to Skopje. However, it is clear and undeniable that North Macedonia, like all Balkan countries, will have to wait for its place on the priority list that will be set by Putin and Trump at a summit significant for the direction of development of the entire world. Indeed, this summit will determine the directions for the development of both the EU and NATO.

"The concept of the European security structure is based on the Euro-Atlantic model with NATO at its center, under US dominance. The first question that arises is whom Europe needs to be defended from. Who was threatening it in the late 1990s? Why did NATO, after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, not only continue to exist but also began to expand eastward? Russia considers this model unsustainable and believes that the entire concept of European security, established in the OSCE documents, needs to be revised. This concept is not just in crisis—it is destroyed," stated A. J. Drobinin, Director of the Department for Foreign Policy Planning at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in an interview for the Hungarian media "Megostas."

While Russia was opening doors to a new multipolar world by gathering populous countries with natural resources and strengthening BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the West focused its efforts on militarily defeating Russia in Ukraine. The newly appointed President of the United States will need political stamina to avoid the force of major conflicts, which is why the European decision on expansion will still be on hold. Based on what we have heard in Kazan and Moscow from Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia and the BRICS members start from political realities, and the relations among BRICS members are solidified by both economic and political foundations of quality bilateral partnership.

According to Putin and Lavrov, the Russian-Chinese tandem is an important stabilizing factor in international politics that curbs the hegemonic ambitions of some countries. Both Putin and the Russian Foreign Minister have repeatedly expressed hope that BRICS will lead to a fairer world order, based on equal relations and mutual respect. These principles already define the functioning of organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization alongside BRICS.

Therefore, it is clear that a priority for Trump and his administration is a meeting with Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, which will be held in some neutral corner of the planet to stop the unofficial war whirlwind being waged between NATO and Russia. Within the framework of security architecture and the creation of a multipolar world, the Putin-Trump Summit can also be expected to open security issues that will include the stagnation of EU development, as well as its expansion, sought by the countries of the former Yugoslavia and Albania. Also, the issue of Kosovo and Metohija will remain open for some time.