KFOR Republic

Written for Kosovo Online by: Dragan Bisenic, journalist

After the incidents in Banjska, the international community's verbal reactions have been sharp, but no measures, not even urgent ones, have been adopted yet. The most serious of all of them was the demand for the withdrawal of a part of the Serbian soldiers deployed near the administrative line with Kosovo. This move does not have any particular strategic significance since Serbia, as Defense Minister Milos Vucevic stated, had about 4,500 soldiers in that area, which is not a secret but well-known information to KFOR and NATO. This move was praised by the US administration and US representatives. At a press briefing, Deputy State Department Spokesperson Vedant Patel stated that the US had been monitoring the deployment of Serbian artillery, tanks, and mechanized infantry units and called on Serbia to withdraw its forces from the border and reduce tensions. "We have noticed some withdrawal of forces and materials along the Kosovo border since September 29, and we expect Serbia to continue steps of de-escalation," Patel said.

The US Ambassador to Belgrade, Christopher Hill, stated that "there is no doubt that there has been a withdrawal of a small portion of troops, and in that regard, things are moving in the right direction. I can also say that we have confirmation of reduced troop numbers. The problem here is not military but political".

He added that the increased presence of troops along the administrative line with Kosovo was a cause for concern, and the US had requested the Serbian leadership to withdraw troops. "We are very pleased to say that this has happened," the US Ambassador said. Confirmation soon came from the National Security Council, whose spokesperson announced that the withdrawal of the army had begun, describing it as a "good thing that will lead to de-escalation."

To better understand where the way out of the current situation might be, let's remind ourselves where the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue stands and what accompanies it in Kosovo and Metohija. All of this happened after the collapse of the last talks in Brussels when the Kosovo negotiator, Albin Kurti, accused the European representatives, Josep Borrell and Miroslav Lajcak, of something. The Community of Serb-majority Municipalities has become an issue for which, it seems, no one has a strong will to implement, even though representatives and envoys of the US and the EU verbally stand firmly behind it. This does not prevent anyone, as seen in the example of the Minsk Agreements for Ukraine or diplomatic initiatives for Nagorno-Karabakh, from using force because, in the current circumstances, few are truly willing to enter another such adventure in Kosovo, in addition to the expansion of all military costs in the West. It seems that Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti was the first to understand such logic. The continuous escalation of repressive measures against the Serbs in Kosovo brought him to the brink in mid-June, both in political and personal terms. Threats went so far that it was promised that in the future, he would only be able to meet with representatives of the non-governmental sector and would no longer meet with any officials. One such punitive measure was the announcement of the possibility of "weakening the understanding of Kosovo's sovereignty in the north of the country," or what the self-proclaimed state of "Kosovo" considers its sui generis authority in the north.

Kurti, from the moment the Serbs withdrew from Kosovo's institutions and boycotted elections, made every effort to demonstrate that "Kosovo's sovereignty" in northern Kosovo is indisputable. Since all of this was most often accompanied by police actions, it was more obvious that such a tactic could eventually turn into broader violence against the population, as it did in 2004 or as indicated by the events in the Caucasus. It can be assumed that they also played a role in the assessment of the Serbian army to deploy certain additional forces in the days after September 19, when the military action in Nagorno-Karabakh began. This development escalated into an incident on September 24, which is significant, among other things, because it showed that the Serbian side was ready for confrontation. In such circumstances, the range of solutions available to international actors is not extensive. But it had certainly been studied before.

As early as June, when a solution was sought to prevent further escalation, scenarios for preventive action were developed in case things were not localized and tensions increased. One of those options, which was most often mentioned and made its way to the public, is to turn northern Kosovo into a "KFOR Republic". This is a somewhat ironic term coined based on the decades-long strategy of Kosovo Albanians to achieve a "Kosovo Republic", which would ultimately transform into a "KFOR Republic." Jeffrey Hovenier, the US Ambassador to Pristina, announced the possibility of a complete militarization of northern Kosovo, and a paper from diplomatic sources leaked to Albanian media announcing that "unfortunately, northern Kosovo could turn into a mini-republic of KFOR". It was announced that this would be necessary, and the KFOR Commander would soon have the necessary political support to fully exercise his wide-ranging powers.

The reaction and assessments from Pristina regarding the events in Banjska further convinced everyone that the "KFOR Republic" would be necessary. Pristina has classified the events as "terrorist", attributing them to certain organizations in the north, which it declared "terrorist" back in June. Such assessments imply a special status for the Serbian community, which, for example, should be turned into "European Gaza", and those who resist it into "Serbian Hamas". In short, all of this would lead to a replay of the Palestinian issue in the heart of Europe, or rather, in the middle of Serbia, a country that is a candidate for EU membership and is promised a European perspective by 2030. True, Pristina also labeled these events as "terrorist." Roughly like the Islamic State in France in 2015 or Spain. It is clear even from a great distance that northern Kosovo and these events are not similar in any way. But the warning remains. What Milan Radoicic has now unsuccessfully done, someone else may do better.

Immediately after the incident on Sunday, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, following a meeting with representatives of the Quint, proposed an expanded role for KFOR. "In one of the most difficult moments for Serbia, I had an important conversation with representatives of the Quint. I reiterated Serbia's views on the recent events in Kosovo and requested that KFOR take responsibility for all security issues in northern Kosovo instead of Kurti's police," the President of Serbia said.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama joined this proposal, advocating for the need to strengthen KFOR and expand its powers. In announcing this proposal, Rama stated that he had discussed it in New York at the NATO Council meeting held during the UN General Assembly session.

Pristina strongly opposed these suggestions, claiming that the Albanian Prime Minister was undermining Kosovo's position once again. However, the Albanian Prime Minister remained steadfast in his stance and reiterated in a recent interview with the "Financial Times" that NATO should regain control of northern Kosovo, or, as he put it, it will face ongoing violence between the Serbs and the Albanians.

NATO member countries are already preparing additional contingents. The Commander of KFOR in Kosovo, Italian General Michele Ristuccia, assesses that there is no military solution to the situation in Kosovo and that normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia must be achieved. However, he warned that KFOR and NATO would not be infinitely patient.

"I want to be optimistic and think that what has happened can make the parties think more wisely. If that doesn't happen, KFOR will have to become more involved," Ristuccia warned. When asked whether it was possible for KFOR to replace the Kosovo Police in areas with the highest tensions, Ristuccia left the question open, providing no details and stating that it was a political decision made in coordination with NATO. However, it seems that, after everything, it is becoming more likely.