Graovac: Kurti will play the card of 'Greater Albania' in North Macedonia elections

Srdjan Graovac from the Center for Social Stability assesses for Kosovo Online that the upcoming elections in North Macedonia will be marked by a political struggle among Albanian parties and that Albin Kurti's intention is to establish himself as a pan-Balkan leader through the idea of "Greater Albania," aiming to surpass the influence of Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama.

Commenting on the recently announced elections in North Macedonia, Graovac says they are somewhat predictable regarding Macedonian parties as the battle will be between the two traditionally largest parties: VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM.

"However, as strange as it sounds, that is less relevant at the moment, even though they will win the most votes. It's more important which Albanian parties will gain a dominant position and which of these two parties they will lean toward. The formation of the future government will depend on this," Graovac emphasizes.

He says the first option is DUI, the ruling party of the current Prime Minister in technical mandate Talat Xhaferi, while Albin Kurti is attempting to form an opposition bloc through which he not only aims to seize power in North Macedonia but also to emerge as a pan-Albanian leader.

"Kurti is trying to impose himself as a pan-Albanian leader, the most recognizable among all Albanians. His officials have announced their support for the Albanian opposition in Macedonia, opponents of those in power, DUI. He has decided to enter the race regarding Albanian political parties and support the opposition to ensure they assume a dominant position among Albanians and become those who will enter the government in North Macedonia. This will strengthen the Self-Determination Movement's influence in this country. Kurti does not hide his intentions to unite Albanians in the Balkans," Graovac says.

According to him, Kurti openly advocates the ideas of the Prizren League and "Greater Albania," which will be, he claims, the key message to Albanian voters.

"Let's not forget that this is a time of great global upheaval, and many politicians believe this is their moment to solve their problems. We see this from the Middle East to Eastern Europe. Hot spots, or potential hot spots, are emerging worldwide. It would not surprise me if Kurti considers this may be his moment to advocate the idea of Greater Albania and bring up the issue of Greater Albania. However, I think there is currently no will among major powers to support such a project," Graovac emphasizes.

Graovac highlights that by playing this "card," Kurti in the North Macedonia elections would simultaneously attempt to oust Edi Rama's dominant role among Albanians in the Balkans.

"In the struggle for dominance among Albanians between Rama and Kurti, Xhaferi leans more toward Rama. It seems to me that Xhaferi will not be someone who will facilitate Kurti's attempt to have a share in controlling the government in Macedonia. On the contrary, he will try to suppress that option," Graovac believes.

He stresses that an additional complicating factor for Kurti will be his conflict with the international community due to pressure on Serbs in Kosovo.

Speaking about the rivalry between Kurti and Rama, Graovac says Kurti has undisputed leadership among Albanians in Kosovo, while Edi Rama has it in Albania, as shown by the 2021 election results in which the Self-Determination Movement unsuccessfully participated.

Hence, according to him, the "battle" is fought for the support of Albanians in southern Serbia, parts of Montenegro and Greece, as well as western North Macedonia.

"I am not even sure if Kurti will overpower Edi Rama in that aspect. I think this idea currently has no chance of success because it lacks the support of major powers, primarily the West, which supports the Albanian factor but does not support the creation of Greater Albania. Generally, they are not interested in creating large states in the Balkans," Graovac assesses.