Elections in North Macedonia - a political storm in the struggle for power

Writing for Kosovo Online: Zeljko Sain, Politika’s correspondent for Skopje

The appointment of Talat Xhaferi as the Prime Minister of North Macedonia is certainly a significant political step for the Albanian parliamentary party DUI, led by Ali Ahmeti, fulfilling the agreement between the SDSM party, led by former Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, and the DUI party that the Prime Minister of the Government should be from the Albanian ranks, i.e., from this Albanian party, a hundred days before the parliamentary elections in North Macedonia.

This political move by the Albanian DUI party, which has also received legal-legislative form in the Parliament, has a long-term strategic goal in parliamentary democracy, strongly supported by the West, specifically by the West whose frontman, the United States, declared Kosovo an independent state. However, the atmosphere in the Macedonian public opinion is far from democratic, especially when political currents come from Pristina, from the cabinet of Albin Kurti.

Talat Xhaferi, the current Prime Minister, was previously the President of the Parliament of North Macedonia for two terms and the Minister of Defense. He is a member of the DUI party, which evolved from the Albanian National Liberation Army, known as the "Macedonian KLA", which militarily clashed with the state of Macedonia, after which the Ohrid Framework Agreement was signed, granting the Albanians all rights to participate in state institutions and form the government. Xhaferi graduated from military schools in Yugoslavia, in Belgrade, and Sarajevo. He gained political experience through the Democratic Union for Integration. He is remembered by many as a political figure in state functions who brought the national symbol of the Albanian state - the Albanian flag - into his cabinets. Western leaders have never commented on such actions, just as they did not pay attention to Kurti's incident when he was declared president of all Albanians in Tetovo, accompanied by the state anthem and flag of Albania, as well as a map of "Greater Albania", which clearly shows territorial claims.

Leaders of opposition Albanian parties in Macedonia, Bilal Kasami, Izet Mexhiti, Afrim Gashi, and Arben Taravari, immediately after the election of the Macedonian Prime Minister from the ranks of the DUI party, were guests of Albin Kurti, where they consulted on the upcoming elections in North Macedonia and agreed to nominate a joint presidential candidate. On the same day, Ali Ahmeti, the leader of the DUI party, appeared in Pristina on RTK, emphasizing that it is still too early for a President of North Macedonia to be from the Albanian ranks. At the same time, Ahmeti criticized them for not being a part of the "historic act" when voting for Prime Minister Talat Xhaferi in Parliament.

Since DUI left VMRO-DPMNE as a coalition partner and started a coalition with SDSM, all Albanian parties have been going for consultations in Tirana, with Albanian Prime Minister Rama. However, this year the host was Kurti, and it was opposition parties that declared him president of all Albanians, but the delegation also included the President of the Albanian Alliance, Taravari, who is in a coalition with the current Government in North Macedonia. It was agreed with Kurti that Taravari would be the joint presidential candidate of the Albanian opposition. Although Taravari denied this upon returning to Skopje, divisions within the parties began, even on a physical basis, as well as threats of bullets at Taravari's doorstep.

Due to such threats directed at Taravari, the gathered people in Struga stood by him and supported him to break away from the coalition with SDSM and DUI. The other wing of the Albanian Alliance is led by Ziadin Sela, who, let's recall, was violently removed from the Parliament in 2017. At that time, VMRO-DPMNE defended the parliament by opposing the election of Xhaferi as Speaker of the Parliament.

If the Alliance withdraws from power, the majority in the parliament is called into question. Namely, the Alliance has eight MPs. If they all go with Taravari, the Government in the Parliament will have slightly fewer than 61 MPs, thus raising questions about the functioning of the legislative body itself.

In North Macedonia, the atmosphere is just heating up ahead of the parliamentary elections, and already there are signs of a fierce battle, as well as concern about Kurti's persistence in toppling Albanian leaders who are not his puppets. Although Kurti has not registered a party in North Macedonia, he has established an imperative obedient and executive parliamentary pluralism with the Albanian opposition for the parliamentary elections, where he will disrupt political calculations - if not through democratic and fair competition, then certainly through a campaign that brings unrest and discord into people's peaceful lives - both in Kosovo and Metohija and in North Macedonia.

The question arises as to why Kurti's mentor wants this: is he opposing certain Western partners - primarily the US, or is he opening up space for a third country from the East? However, it increasingly resembles dominance over the Balkans, where this region is being targeted through scenarios of a turbulent parliamentary atmosphere. Demonstrations and unrest are being created precisely in areas where the leaders of the "Open Balkan" without any grants and mentors have preserved peace in the Balkans. The question is who is bothered by peace in the Balkans? And not only that but also whether this dominance over the Balkans would exempt Balkan countries from giving their voice in the new global division of spheres of interest in negotiations between the interested powers, the US and the Russian Federation.

For Eastern states, the Western support for Albanians is worrying, as emphasized by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, after the 30th OSCE Ministerial Council held in Skopje, from which, as Lavrov emphasizes, "Blinken, Cameron, and Borrell fled".

"The Albanian factor is very serious, as confirmed by the situation in North Macedonia. To this day, the Chairman of the Macedonian Parliament sits at a table where the Albanian flag is displayed. The Macedonian flag is also there somewhere, but so is the Albanian one", Lavrov told "Politika", warning that Albanians are an important factor supported by Western powers in the Western Balkans. That flag has also been raised in the Prime Minister's cabinet, where Xhaferi sits. However, since all unrest originates from the Albanian opposition, from common interests, as a common denominator, only the Albanian flag will remain, under which Kurti was declared the president of all Albanians.

On the domestic front of North Macedonia, a political storm is expected in the struggle for power, while on the external front, the country is fighting for a place in the sun in the European Union. We will have the opportunity to see what strategic decisions the Government led by Xhaferi, under the patronage of his DUI party, which placed him in this position, will make in the coming period. However, if North Macedonia continues to seek its path solely based on party interests, it may question the entire Western Balkans within the division of global interests.

Russia has no problem with the Western Balkans joining the EU. Despite the fact that it is not clear where the "Eastern Balkans" are, as Lavrov said to "Politika", Russia will support every decision of the Serbs, i.e., Serbian leadership, but he also emphasized that Russia considered the Macedonians friendly, unlike the Macedonian authorities. Certainly, agreements primarily at the domestic level of Western Balkan countries, and then at the regional level, are necessary for the Western Balkans to play a more significant role on the world political stage and to be present at the negotiating table of significant powers, primarily Russia and the US, to achieve a balance of relations and peace in the world.