The strengthening of cooperation between Turkey and Kosovo: what are Ankara's interests in the Western Balkans?

Less than a week after donating one million dollars to the Kosovo Security Force (KSF), Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Kosovo yesterday. While some media speculate that the visit is linked to the recent arrest of a Kosovo Albanian accused of being a spy for Israel's Mossad, sources for Kosovo Online see it as evidence that Turkey-Kosovo relations are flourishing and reflect Ankara’s clear interests in strengthening and expanding its "soft power" in the Western Balkans.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

"The people of Kosovo are not just friends of Turkey but also brothers and sisters. We want these strong ties between us to develop in the best possible way," Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated yesterday.

President Tayyip Erdogan was more precise in 2013.

"Dear brothers and friends, we share a common history of culture and civilization. Don’t forget, Turkey is Kosovo and Kosovo is Turkey. We are so close that even the author of the Turkish anthem, Mehmet Akif Ersoy, is from Kosovo, from Peja," Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said in 2013 in Prizren.

Ten years later, Kosovo received its first shipment of "Bayraktar" military drones.

"We have added Bayraktar TB-2 drones to our army's arsenal, which we as a government purchased from Turkey. In two years of governance, we increased the number of soldiers by over 80 percent and the military budget by over 100 percent. Kosovo is now safer than ever," stated Prime Minister Albin Kurti at the time.

Meanwhile, Turkey has also supplied Kosovo with anti-tank missile systems with a four-kilometer range, 120-millimeter mortars, various types of infantry vehicles...

"Turkey and Kosovo are currently building a brotherhood through arms," military analyst Aleksandar Radic told Kosovo Online earlier this year.

The arming of Kosovo, he emphasized, is part of a broader political project through which Turkey is building a bridgehead toward the Western Balkans, where it finds political opportunity.

Last week’s one million dollar donation to the Kosovo Security Force could also be interpreted as a form of such a "bridgehead."

"This donation is part of the Turkish government's foreign military support program. The relations between our two countries have always been at the highest level, and Turkey’s contribution to enhancing the capacities of the Kosovo Security Forces is continuous, both in terms of training and military equipment," stressed Defense Minister Ejup Maqedonci.

Neo-Ottomanism and solo actions

Milos Pavkovic, a collaborator at the Center for European Policy, believes that arming Kosovo is a way for Turkey to strengthen its neo-Ottoman strategy in the Western Balkans and, in many aspects, "go it alone" relative to the EU and NATO.

"In doing so, Turkey is actually sending a message that it is strengthening its ties with Kosovo and other Muslim countries in the Balkans. This is a kind of neo-Ottoman policy in the 21st century, where Turkey seeks to find partners and strengthen its presence in the Balkans. Besides Kosovo, this includes Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, what is particularly important for Kosovo is that Turkish interests, despite being a NATO member, do not often align with the interests of the EU and NATO in Kosovo and Metohija. In this way, it seems that Turkey is acting somewhat independently and trying to play a larger role in influencing the Balkans," Pavkovic told Kosovo Online.

According to him, Turkey's "going it alone" approach at this moment most benefits Prime Minister Albin Kurti.

"This solo approach is primarily reflected in support for the government in Pristina and for all unilateral actions taken by that government. These are actions that have been condemned by the European Union, the Quint group, and the United States, all the major NATO members, yet Turkey supports them and works on strengthening Kosovo’s army. These are opposing, differing interests. In this way, Kurti currently requires external support. Given that he cannot obtain it anywhere in the West, Turkey is emerging as the ideal partner for him at this moment.

At the same time, Turkey has seen an opportunity to strengthen relations with Kosovo, and thus reinforce its presence both in Kosovo and the Balkans as a whole," Pavkovic explained.

Consequences of (non)integration

Afrim Hoti, a political analyst from Pristina, also reflects on Turkey's neo-Ottomanism and its aspirations in the Western Balkans.

"There is certainly talk of neo-Ottomanism. This is Turkey’s influence in the Balkans. If we look back in history, we see the presence of the Turks in the Balkans. While the Balkans look toward EU integration, at the same time, due to the numerous obstacles encountered along that path, for some countries, primarily Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the possibility of falling under Turkey’s influence emerges as a second option. Serbia is in a different position here and gains the most from it. As one of the largest countries, Turkey views it as a real and most serious partner in the Balkans," Hoti told Kosovo Online.

He notes that Turkey and Kosovo share historical, cultural, and religious ties.

"I think that the relations between Turkey and Kosovo are historical. Everyone can talk about the historical aspects, as well as the cultural and religious sides of it, but in addition to that, I also see economic cooperation and the economic opportunities that both countries have been developing over the past decades and recent years," Hoti told Kosovo Online.

He emphasized that Turkey contributes to Kosovo in other areas, particularly highlighting the security sector.

"The Kosovo Security Forces are considered among Turkey's closest partners, alongside Western countries," Hoti stressed.

History and "Soft Power"

Marko Savkovic, a senior advisor at the ISAK Fund, remarked in a conversation with Kosovo Online that Turkey has developed very strong "soft power" in the Western Balkans, and that the increasing cooperation and open arming of Kosovo is the result of a policy that has been in place for the past 15 years.

"This is a continuation of relations that have been developing for 15 years. Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Kosovo's unilaterally declared independence. Turkey has been helping develop defense capacities through the provision and sale of various armored vehicles for the armed forces, and now, more sophisticated systems like the 'Bayraktar' drones," Savkovic noted.

He emphasizes that Turkey has two key interests in the Western Balkans.

The first, he points out, is the region’s full integration into NATO.

"Turkey's long-declared interest is Euro-Atlantic integration, the completion of the process, with the entire Western Balkans entering NATO. NATO is the framework for Turkey because, as we know, it has little chance of becoming an EU member in the near future," Savkovic believes.

The second key interest is strengthening its influence in the region, which Turkey pursues through the expansion of economic, educational, cultural, and historical ties.

"Turkey always emphasizes peace, stability, and good inter-state and inter-ethnic relations. It often refers to its legacy, which is an important factor of identification. Turkey has developed very strong soft power in the Western Balkans, a power of attraction, largely thanks to its educational system, which many young people attend. Additionally, its well-developed economy and historical heritage play a role. Turkey is smartly involved in the restoration of various cultural heritage sites. And finally, through its economic presence—specifically with Pristina, Turkey is the seventh-largest economic partner and employs around 10,000 people living in Kosovo," Savkovic emphasized.

According to him, the recent one-million-dollar donation to expand the "capacity" of the Kosovo Security Force (KSF) is only surprising in the sense that Ankara wants equally good relations with both Pristina and Belgrade.

"Considering the rather good relations between Ankara and Belgrade, one might say this now seems like a problem for Belgrade. However, I believe Ankara will continue to ensure that it maintains good relations with Belgrade as much as possible," Savkovic commented.

He added that when discussing the purchase of military equipment and weaponry, it should not be forgotten that, as with the "Bayraktar" drones, this involves a private company within Turkey’s defense industry that is profit-driven. Kosovo’s acquisition of these drones sends a message that it is following the trends of "modern warfare."

"The 'Bayraktar' platform is exported to many countries around the world. It is currently considered one of the best globally—so much so that even Serbia has considered acquiring it, though I don't know if it still is. Armed forces that are able are looking to acquire drone platforms for operational purposes. One of the key lessons from Ukraine is the significance of such platforms and how much they have changed modern warfare," Savkovic explained.

However, he does not believe that Kosovo's armament or Turkey's increasing influence in the Western Balkans will necessarily lead to additional tensions in the region.

"I don’t necessarily think so. It’s simply a complex mix of relations, if you will, where there is a lot of cooperation, competition, and opposing views on some issues, but I don’t necessarily see this as a conflict or a future source of conflict," Savkovic concluded.