US and EU pressure: Can the international community resolve the political deadlock in Kosovo?

Although increasingly strong signals of dissatisfaction over the failure to form Kosovo's institutions are coming from the United States and the European Union, Washington and Brussels are unlikely at this point to exert serious pressure or impose drastic economic sanctions on Pristina, according to Kosovo Online's interlocutors. They assess that this is an internal issue and an artificially created crisis for which caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti bears the greatest responsibility.

Written by: Milena Miladinovic

Kosovo remains without institutions following the June elections, while the United States has called on Kosovo's political leaders to cooperate in accordance with the Constitution and the decisions of the Constitutional Court.

The State Department warned that the continuing political deadlock was resulting in missed opportunities for Kosovo.

"It is time for leaders to prioritize progress and stability, in the interests of all citizens," a State Department spokesperson said.

The US Embassy in Pristina issued a similar appeal to Kosovo politicians on August 12, while the European Union Office expressed concern that new institutions had still not been established, warning that the delays were jeopardizing Kosovo's ability to take advantage of opportunities offered by the EU, including those under the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans.

Kosovo opposition MPs characterized such appeals as a warning to Self-Determination.
According to Alliance member Burim Ramadani, Self-Determination Movement MPs were failing to perform the duties they had sworn to carry out, adding that the US and EU call for the formation of institutions should serve as a warning to the party blocking the work of the Assembly.
Political analysts assess that the United States and the EU have the capacity to compel Kosovo to form its institutions, but that there is currently no real pressure on political leaders and that their interventions remain limited to advice and criticism.

Kosovo Online's interlocutors do not expect a tougher response in the form of sanctions or other restrictive measures, at least for now. They argue that the political deadlock does not concern an international obligation undertaken by Pristina, but rather an artificially created domestic crisis, while the United States is also preoccupied with other global crises.

A positive signal

Edward Joseph, Senior Fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said that Washington's expression of dissatisfaction was a positive signal, but that the United States was unlikely to use all of its leverage or resort to economic measures.

Joseph told Kosovo Online that caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti bore the greatest responsibility for the artificially created crisis in Kosovo.

"I don't believe that direct pressure is possible because responsibility for this completely artificially created crisis is shared. Obviously, Kurti bears the greatest responsibility because he won the election, and he could already have opted for a consensus candidate for president and found a way out of this chaos. At the same time, the opposition also bears responsibility. This is a crisis for the entire country, and it is very damaging to the country. That is why it is positive and encouraging that the US administration is expressing its dissatisfaction and thereby creating a certain degree of pressure," Joseph said.

According to him, the reactions of the United States and the EU to Kosovo's political deadlock were a positive signal.

"Many people say that the Trump administration does not care about the Balkans at all. That is why it is encouraging to see it expressing its dissatisfaction, just as European Union countries are doing. I think there is an appropriate role for a country like the United States to engage and talk with political leaders and try to help them reach an agreement that is, first and foremost, the sovereign decision of the sovereign state of Kosovo, but also to finally help them emerge from this deadlock, which, I repeat, is very bad for the country," Joseph added.

He said that the United States had leverage at its disposal but was unlikely to use all of it over Kosovo because it was involved in numerous other global crises.

"Kosovo is a small country, and if the United States used all of its leverage, it could do so, but it is unlikely that it will. The United States has global responsibilities and is involved in major crises, currently in Ukraine and Iran. There are also trade issues. The US government has many matters to deal with besides an artificially created domestic political crisis in Kosovo," Joseph said.

Joseph added that it was difficult to speak of economic measures or sanctions against Kosovo because the political deadlock was an internal matter rather than an international obligation that Pristina had undertaken but failed to fulfill.

"It is not so simple to talk about economic measures because responsibility is shared. Second, this is not an international obligation that Kosovo is failing to fulfill, nor an obligation that Kosovo undertook and is now failing to respect. This is an internal problem among Kosovo's political leaders, who are failing to fulfill their responsibility to the voters and are acting in very selfish and cynical ways, which is deeply concerning. Again, responsibility is shared, but the reality is that Kurti won the election and has the greatest ability to break this deadlock. He bears the greatest responsibility," Joseph said.

A major loss even without sanctions or restrictions

Analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu said that forming institutions was in Kosovo's interest and should not require a recommendation from the European Union or the United States, but rather the willingness and determination of Kosovo's own political leaders.

"Forming institutions is in Kosovo's national interest, and it should not have to be recommended by anyone. Whether Kurti will listen to what the Americans are saying is another question. He has ignored them before. If he does not listen to the interests of the people of Kosovo, how can we expect him to listen to what America or anyone else tells him?" Spahiu told Kosovo Online.

Spahiu believes that the United States and the EU will not impose restrictions or sanctions on Kosovo over the failure to form institutions, but added that Kosovo was suffering significant losses as a result of the political deadlock.

"Implementation of the agreements reached in Brussels with President Vucic, which is in Kosovo's national interest, is being delayed, as are many other things. There is no reconciliation, roads are not being built, nothing is being built, nothing is being done. Apart from demolishing illegal structures around the lakes, nothing else is happening. That is nevertheless a major loss for Kosovo," the analyst said.
Spahiu believes that Kurti would not respond to external pressure, describing him as unwilling to compromise in negotiations with the Democratic League of Kosovo over the election of the President of Kosovo.

"Kurti wants a president who would be under his control, and that is unacceptable both to the opposition and to everyone else. The people of Kosovo gave Kurti the opportunity to form a government, but not to keep all institutions under his control," Spahiu said.

Stronger pressure after new elections

Security studies researcher Nikola Vujinovic believes that pressure will intensify, but only after another election in which, he predicts, Self-Determination leader Albin Kurti will secure a more convincing victory than in the previous vote.

"I think we will enter another round of elections, in which Kurti will achieve a more significant victory than he did in June, and that pressure will then be exerted on him. I fear that there is currently a certain lack of coordination between the United States and its European allies over what will happen in the Western Balkans. We are seeing the 'Flamingo Revolution' in Albania, problems surrounding the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and instability in Kosovo," Vujinovic told Kosovo Online.
Regarding pressure, Vujinovic said that everything remained at the level of advice and criticism for now, but that the international community "has the medicine for Kosovo, but does not want to prescribe it."
"We saw how Sorensen resolved certain problems with Kurti with a single visit on March 14. That is the medicine for this kind of behavior, but we do not see Kosovo's allies wanting to prescribe that medicine," he said.

According to Vujinovic, the criticism directed at Kosovo was insincere.

"And it will remain insincere for some time, until it becomes clear what will happen with Hashim Thaci and the verdict, what will happen with Vjosa Osmani within the LDK. Abdixhiku survived, but will he survive another round of elections? We are seeing announcements of new negotiations over a potential president. This is a fight for Abdixhiku's political survival. And finally, how will the constitutional uncertainty be resolved—who can serve as acting president, whether that is Dehari or Haxhiu?" he said.
In any event, Vujinovic added, resolving the crisis depended on Kosovo's international sponsors.
"The absence of a solution means that the sponsors are not interested in a solution for reasons of their own, but I think that works in Kurti's favor," Vujinovic concluded.