What does the return of James O'Brien bring to Serbia and the region?

He is familiar with the region and the relationship between the Serbs and the Albanians, and he doesn't need to prove himself. An experienced diplomat, he knows people, a 'voice of reason' from Rambouillet, focused on regional economic integration, but also on crime and corruption... This is how the interlocutors of Kosovo Online talk about James O'Brien, who officially assumed the position of Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs in the United States in recent days.

A diplomat who was a part of Washington's political team for the Balkans in the 1990s is back in a position where he will have our region 'on the radar'. This Yale law doctor was an advisor to former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, one of the creators of the Dayton Agreement, a negotiator in Rambouillet, and the first US Envoy to Belgrade after October 5, 2000. Before taking up the position he assumed this month, he was a coordinator for sanctions at the State Department.

What his new engagement will bring to Serbia and the region is still a matter of speculation.

Journalist Ljiljana Smajlovic says for Kosovo Online that O'Brien is an experienced diplomat who does not aim to present America as the world's policeman, and he doesn't need to prove himself. Regarding the policy he will implement, Smajlovic says it will certainly not be influenced by the moves he made after Dayton or Rambouillet.

"Right now, what matters to us is that Jim O'Brien knows the region well. He knows the key players; he's the man who replaced Robert Gelbard as the head of the Balkans in 2000. From the fact that he co-wrote the Dayton Constitution in 1995, or the constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina with Holbrooke in 1995, to his role in Rambouillet and as an important member of Madeleine Albright's team, we can't draw conclusions about how he will behave here," Smajlovic says.

Our interlocutor emphasizes that O'Brien was the first US diplomat allowed by the Serbian authorities to appear in Belgrade immediately after October 5th.

"The DOS Government did not want the first to arrive to be Bill Montgomery because he was the one who financed the opposition, the one who executed the immediate work. O'Brien had a completely different attitude, not at all arrogant, or sympathetic, and at that time Jim O'Brien and the US State Department liked to present things as if they were responsible for the victory of the DOS and the fall of Milosevic. O'Brien arrived in Belgrade after October 5th as the first US Envoy, and in the first statement he made, he said, 'We didn't do this for Kosovo to gain independence'. Did he lie to us? He didn't lie to us. He said what then was US policy, and I'm convinced that US policy has always been to recognize Kosovo's independence, they just won't always tell you that. So, there are gradual steps; we can't bet our lives on what the current US policy is. But, if judging by Christopher Hill's example, the fact that Jim O'Brien was an important part of the tough US stance towards Serbia both before and after Milosevic does not necessarily mean that he will take these or those steps," Smajlovic says.

She adds that the advantage for Serbia is that he knows the people and won't believe everything different people tell him.

"It seems to me that, just like Hill, he will have a soft approach. He is not arrogant, like some of his predecessors. He is a courteous man who doesn't point fingers at anyone, who is not eager to present the US as the world's policeman, but as a democratic state that strives to bring democracy, be fair to all players, and be an honest broker in Balkan conflicts. I assume that he will continue to maintain that kind of approach now, which doesn't necessarily mean that US policy will be soft. He is a cog in the State Department and White House mechanism to influence these circumstances. He won't be influenced by the steps he took after Dayton, Rambouillet, just as he couldn't influence the decision on the US recognition of Kosovo's independence. But I'm sure - even if he could, it wouldn't have been different, regardless of the fact that his first message in Belgrade was 'We didn't bomb you to give Kosovo independence', and it turned out they did bomb us to give Kosovo independence," Smajlovic concludes.

Vladimir Marinkovic, the President of the Congress of Serbian-American Friendship, who met with James O'Brien in Washington on Wednesday, says that O'Brien knows our region very well, the circumstances, Serbia, and the relationships between the Serbs and the Albanians, and he believes that due to this "background knowledge", O'Brien will have a very sensitive approach.

"How he will behave in the coming period, no one can know for sure, but I certainly think it's good that more people engage with this region and that we remain, in a way, in some focus of the United States, because it's obvious that only they can be guarantors of everything agreed upon in the Balkans. They can also assess the behavior of any party in the dialogue in a constructive and fair manner, primarily referring to the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, where Washington had a correct and balanced approach in the previous period," Marinkovic said for Kosovo Online.

From his conversation with O'Brien, Marinkovic, as he says, was able to see that the United States is still interested in strengthening the partnership with Serbia and that the US sees Serbia as the most reliable partner in the region, even though they disagree on the issue of resolving Kosovo's status.

"As far as I could see, there is room for compromise on all the initiatives that Serbia has had, including those of President Vucic over the past few years, especially in the field of the economy. In Washington, they clearly told me that the support of the US to the Open Balkan remained, primarily as a peace initiative, which should ensure the free flow of goods, people, and capital, which can and should be a precondition for solving key political issues in the region," Marinkovic says.

The appointment of O'Brien as Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia is a signal, according to Stevan Nedeljkovic, an Associate Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, that the US is increasingly focusing on this region, as they see it as a potential source of new conflicts.

"Information about the appointment of Jim O'Brien brings both good and bad news for Serbia. The good news is that, based on everything we've read and heard about his past, O'Brien is very focused on regional economic integration, which Serbia has been emphasizing, especially in recent years. The bad news is that he is quite focused on crime and corruption, which is not good news for the political elites in the Western Balkans," Nedeljkovic says.

According to him, there is a prevailing belief in Serbia that anyone who has worked with Madeleine Albright has a negative connotation, while with O'Brien, Nedeljkovic assesses that this is not the case.

"According to the testimonies of many present at the Rambouillet negotiations, including our negotiator Vladan Kutlesic, O'Brien was the voice of reason and genuinely tried to reach a certain kind of agreement, which at one point, even our leadership did not agree to, and everything else is, of course, history," Nedeljkovic says.

The appointments in the White House and the State Department, he adds, show an increased interest of the US in the Balkan region.

"By appointing very focused and competent individuals for the Balkans, such as Christopher Hill or James O'Brien, it sends a message that this region is in full focus. A few years ago, we couldn't expect that the Western Balkans would be in the spotlight of US interest. Even now, we can't say that we are in the top five priorities of the US, but we are certainly rising on the scale, which may be an opportunity to address the numerous challenges in the Western Balkans," Nedeljkovic says.

Political analyst from Pristina, Shkelzen Maliqi, believes that the new Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, James O'Brien, will attempt to stabilize some of the crisis hotspots that have emerged in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

"For almost a year and a half, the US administration has been strengthening its team in the Balkans in all aspects. Since O'Brien is an experienced diplomat who knows the region well, he will probably try to stabilize some of the crisis hotspots that have emerged in Kosovo and Bosnia," Maliqi says.

The dialogue process between Belgrade and Pristina has stalled after the recent events in Kosovo, and Maliqi is convinced that O'Brien will also address this issue.

"He will certainly influence the dialogue; that's why he was appointed. He is experienced and has been appointed because he knows the terrain well and has experienced people working on it. I assume that by the end of the year or the spring, he will try to find some solution, at least in Kosovo, but also in Bosnia," Maliqi says.