Where do the Brussels meetings of Belgrade and Pristina lead?

The latest round of dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina at the level of the main negotiators, which is being held today in Brussels, will show whether the two sides are moving in a positive direction regarding the realization of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities, which is the main condition for further talks, and the interlocutors of Kosovo Online say that the pressures of mediators from the West are likely to increase further.

When asked whether it was possible to assess at this moment in which direction the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina would go, Dr. Aleksandar Mitic, research associate of the Institute for International Politics and Economy, states that the dialogue is blocked, as it is every time when Pristina should do even one a step forward in deviating from maximalist requirements.

"This has become a normal practice and tactic of Pristina. We are not giving anything and we are waiting for the West to put even more pressure on Belgrade," Mitic notes in a statement for Kosovo Online.

From this, he concludes that it will be difficult to unblock the process in conditions where the West has no intention of pressuring Pristina to fulfill the most basic obligations.

"Strategically, the West has two goals. The first is for Serbia to give up Kosovo and Metohija with the prospect of recognizing the 'unilateral declaration of independence'. Another goal is to make the ties between Belgrade and the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija as loose as possible. Therefore, it suits the West that Pristina, with its maximalist attitude, is destroying any meaningfulness of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities," Mitic points out.

He also asked why Pristina would agree to anything that did not suit it, when it was constantly rewarded by the mediators in the dialogue, which were the member states of the European Union, citing as an example the events of just a few weeks ago - the vote in the Council of Europe, the visa liberalization of the EU, and the legitimization of "container elections" in the north.

According to him, the sole responsibility for this situation, that is, the blocking of the process, lies with, as he says, the incompetent and biased mediator in the dialogue - the European Union.

"Belgrade's participation in a process whose negative outcome for Serbian interests is foreseeable is also illogical. This process is based on wrong premises, on the violation of international law, on double standards, and unilateral ultimatums. This will not lead to a happy outcome," Mitic is convinced.

When asked whether we could expect new pressures on Belgrade to fulfill its obligations and concessions to Pristina in relation to its obligations, Mitic answers - "absolutely, because it is a matrix that gives results for the West and Pristina, and they will not give up on that".

"The Albanians are not ready to fulfill any provision that would form the CSM with executive powers, as it was foreseen and agreed upon. They have the absolute support of the West for this. The Germans have been the most open supporters of Albin Kurti for years. The Americans are playing a double game. On the one hand, they are publicly allegedly pressuring Kurti, and essentially they are doing everything to ensure that he succeeds in his intentions and that the Serbs and Belgrade are backed against the wall. The EU administration serves to twist everything into a 'wafer of liberal democracy and European values,'" Mitic said.

When it comes to the further direction in which the dialogue will lead, journalist Bosko Jaksic tells Kosovo Online that all signs indicate that it will continue in the direction of "forcing Belgrade and Pristina into the corner".

He also assesses that the mediators, the Europeans, and above all the Americans, do not show any signs that they are ready for any kind of tolerance, procrastination, finding justifications and creating an environment for new incidents.

"According to what could be concluded on the basis of the European plan, its determinants are as politically precisely defined as they are clearly limited in time, and accompanied by clear sanctions on both sides if they do not comply. We now had, for a short period after Ohrid, attempts led by Pristina and Kurti to undermine some things on the road map, but it seems to me that there is no chance of success," Jaksic said.

He is of the opinion that it is wisest for Belgrade to remain silent in such a situation and observe how and when the West will "settle" with Kurti, that is, how they will force him to accept what was signed in 2013 and what was accepted in Brussels and Ohrid.

Jaksic says that the West does not want to allow Kurti or Vucic to command the process, but that they determine what will be discussed first, and in what way. He sees the boycott of elections in four municipalities in the north as a mistake.

"Now the situation looks like it will end badly for both sides, but the fact is that the West does not want to tolerate it, that there is no more room for procrastination. So we can expect that the negotiation process will intensify, that the pressures on both sides will intensify, because the Americans care that some things be finished by the end of this year or early next year, because it is clear that Kosovo cannot be such a priority, due to the elections in the US next year. So the main dynamic belongs to the Americans, not the Europeans, who are proverbially inclined to some kind of political lethargy," Jaksic points out.

When asked if this meant that the Americans would pressure Kurti to fulfill his obligations, Jaksic replies that until now, the US and the EU have heard that the CSM is not being questioned and that it must be fulfilled, but that it is unclear whether it will be in the form defined by the Brussels Agreement from 2013, or as Derek Chollet once said, in accordance with the Constitution of Kosovo.

This, he adds, opens up a new space for negotiations in which the original variant will be corrected, noting that the original agreement itself is of a dual nature.
"Vucic expects that what was signed will be accepted without question, and it seems to me that it will not go that way, but also that Kurti will be forced to accept because he is putting his own political future at stake. He has already seen how the Americans quickly and efficiently removed him from the prime minister's post," Jaksic recalls.

He also adds that some of Kurti's moves are "too gambling", illogical, and unreasonable, for the situation in which he finds himself.

"But that is his choice. And I think that his personal choice cannot significantly affect the negotiation process. Let's remember that, more than once, it was said that the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities would be formed with Kurti or without him," Jaksic concluded.