Essequibo – Kosovo of Latin America

Writing for Kosovo Online: Dragan Bisenic

Latin America has got its 'Kosovo'. It is the province of Essequibo currently controlled by Guyana, but Venezuela disputes its sovereignty over this territory. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro last week signed decrees creating a new Venezuelan state, Essequibo, establishing a commission for its defense, a sector of the state oil company, and issuing permits for energy exploration.

Maduro appointed General Alexis Rodriguez Cabello as the administrator of the territory and ordered the creation of a commission for the defense and recovery of Essequibo, as well as the establishment of a regional branch of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA. It was also announced that the residents of Essequibo would be granted Venezuelan documents. The initiative comes just a day after the announcement that the US would conduct military exercises in Guyana, including Essequibo, which Venezuela interpreted as a provocative act. Maduro, for the first time, provided a timeframe for implementing the plans: the year 2030 or later to 'fulfill the mandate of the people who voted for'. Venezuelan citizens voted in a referendum on December 3 to assert their rights to the territory of Essequibo, rich in oil and minerals, currently controlled by neighboring Guyana. The Essequibo territory, covering 159,500 square kilometers, constitutes two-thirds of Guyana. Venezuela claims that the territory was taken from it when the north-south border was drawn more than a century ago, while Guyana argues that Venezuela's behavior poses a direct threat to the peace and security of Guyana and jeopardizes the peace and security of the entire region.

On Friday, the Security Council discussed this issue at the initiative of Guyana, but there was no concrete decision.

After Kosovo, Donbas, Crimea, and Nagorno-Karabakh, Latin America has gotten its 'Kosovo', or a territory that is supposed to change its legal status and transfer sovereignty through external action. Indeed, Latin America bears the heavy burden of colonial heritage, where borders were drawn arbitrarily by colonizers who disregarded history, ethnic composition, and the interests of the local population, focusing instead on what was most profitable and expedient from the standpoint of colonial exploitation. Numerous territories in the region are considered disputed.

Some of the longest-standing and most serious disputes in South America have been partially resolved since 1990 – Argentina and Chile, Ecuador and Peru, Chile and Peru, Brazil and all its neighbors. At the same time, similar border disputes have worsened in the cases of Guyana, Venezuela, Colombia, and Central America. Each of these countries in the latter group has been involved in at least one interstate armed conflict since 1990. Nicaragua tops the list, having had military disputes with four states. Venezuela and Honduras have had armed conflicts with three neighboring states. El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, and Colombia have had armed disputes with two neighbors. Since 1990, armed interstate conflicts have been frequent, but only the dispute between Ecuador and Peru escalated into a war in 1995.

Interestingly, opposition leader Juan Guaido, whom the US and other Western states recognized as the President of Venezuela at the time, continued to sharply criticize Maduro, saying, 'Essequibo is our land'.

This situation is delicate for Russia, which is the closest ally of Venezuela in Latin America. No one supported this action, not even Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. Brazil, a Russian partner in BRICS, completely condemned Caracas' actions. Tension has increased in all countries. Brazil's concern about heightened tension is explained by the fact that its president, Lula, is generally a peaceful person and does not need a military conflict on his borders. Additionally, there is a historical implication: the treaty Brazil once concluded with Spain granted control over smaller territories than the one later signed with Great Britain. In other words, if Venezuela somehow establishes control over Essequibo, it will claim the right to some Brazilian territories.

Cuba values its relationships with English-speaking Caribbean countries such as Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. Of course, Cuba and Venezuela are close allies, but Havana will not automatically rush to support Caracas in such an old and complex dispute, in which each side is somewhat right.

Now alarming rumors are emerging. There are reports that mobilization has begun in Venezuela, and Brazil is moving troops to the border. Venezuela has the strength and means to annex Essequibo. It has 28 million inhabitants, while Guyana has only 80,000. The Venezuelan army has 123 thousand well-trained soldiers, and considering mobilization reserves, that's a total of half a million people. Guyana's armed forces number only 3,400 soldiers. The situation is similar with military equipment. Guyana has 6 combat armored vehicles, while Venezuela has 789. Guyana has 54 artillery pieces against Venezuela's 545, 5 patrol boats against 34 patrol boats and submarines, and a few light patrol planes and transport helicopters against 82 combat fighters, bombers, and attack planes. If war breaks out and a third party does not intervene, the outcome is predictable.

In this case, it is assumed that there would inevitably be the intervention of 'third countries', primarily the United States and Great Britain. In a hypothetical conflict, Brazil, with President Lula, would most likely remain neutral, although it will be crucial which side in the conflict this neutrality favors, given that Brazil is a regional power.

However, Great Britain and the US will almost certainly intervene on the side of Guyana. The US and Venezuela have had complex relations for over 20 years. In this regard, a hypothetical Republican Trump administration would be no less militant than a Democratic one. Conservatives consider Latin America their backyard, and their current mood of avoiding military adventures abroad does not apply to this region. However, it would not be straightforward in an atmosphere of a divided society and a strong rejection of US military involvement in regions that are not of immediate importance to the US.

It's worth noting that Guyana, the only English-speaking country on the continent, is a member of the Commonwealth of Nations, which encompasses almost all former British colonies, dominions, and protectorates. There is also a military cooperation agreement between Guyana and the United States signed in 2021. This is precisely what the states hoped to use as a 'mallet' against Venezuela in the future.

War among neighbors is of no benefit to any of them. It weakens the region, which is now trying to free itself from American influence once again. The Venezuelan-Guyanese crisis could prompt the United States to send troops, and in turn, this could cause the conflict to spread to neighboring countries. Americans will not give up on attempts to overthrow Maduro, and they may restart this process as in the time of the Trump administration. This is precisely what Venezuela's allies fear.

The territorial dispute between Caracas and Georgetown over the Essequibo province must be resolved peacefully, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova said. She stated that Moscow "positively assesses" the telephone conversation between Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil Pinto and his Guyanese counterpart Hugh Todd, held on December 6, expressing hope that such contacts would continue. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has also announced his trip to Moscow.

Interestingly, the position of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in this case exactly aligns with the stance of the US State Department, which has also called for resolving the conflict through negotiations and has not sided with either party.

Additionally, Venezuela, a country with the world's largest oil reserves, has contracts with American companies for oil supply, and it sustains itself economically and partially politically through these agreements. There is also speculation that, in certain circumstances, Maduro could guarantee desired actions on the vast fields of Essequibo to American companies. In such a scenario, it might not matter which country these oil fields belong to.