FEATURE ARTICLE: 25 Years of NATO Bombing of Serbia (33): Chinese Anger and Temporary Russian "Geopolitical Conformism"

Written for Kosovo Online by Dragan Bisenic

At the meeting in Bonn on May 6, 1999, the foreign ministers of the seven leading industrialized countries and Russia marked the beginning of drafting principles for reaching a peace agreement. Chernomyrdin announced that Yeltsin had played a decisive role in organizing this meeting. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov reported that the adopted principles were consistent with the Russian approach. A five-point catalog for ending the war in Kosovo was then agreed upon:

1. G8 foreign ministers agreed on the following general principles for a political solution to the Kosovo crisis:
   • Immediate and verifiable end to violence and repression in Kosovo;
   • Withdrawal of military, police, and paramilitary forces from Kosovo;
   • Deployment of an effective international civilian and security presence in Kosovo, approved and agreed upon by the United Nations, capable of guaranteeing the achievement of common goals;
   • Establishment of a temporary administration for Kosovo, decided by the United Nations Security Council, to ensure conditions for a peaceful and normal life for all residents of Kosovo;
   • Safe and free return of all refugees and displaced persons and unhindered access to Kosovo for humanitarian aid organizations;
   • A political process to establish a transitional political framework agreement providing for substantial self-governance for Kosovo, fully respecting the Rambouillet Agreement and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and other countries in the region, as well as the demilitarization of the KLA; - A comprehensive approach to economic development and stabilization of the crisis region.
2. To implement these principles, the G8 foreign ministers directed their political directors to prepare elements of a United Nations Security Council resolution.
3. Political directors will develop a roadmap for further concrete steps towards a political solution to the Kosovo crisis.
4. The G8 presidency will inform the Chinese leadership of the outcome of today's meeting.
5. G8 foreign ministers will meet again soon to review progress to date.

A joint article by Milo Đukanovic and Zoran Đinđic, published in the "New York Times" under the title "What After the War in Serbia," the day after the bombing of the Chinese embassy. They wrote the joint article, noting that Đinđic was in Montenegro during the bombing, while in the USA and EU, as we have presented, Đukanovic was widely considered an opposition to Milosevic. They started from the fact that despite the current conflict, they remain committed to the integration of Yugoslavia into Europe, and ultimately into the European Union. The path to Europe is the only direction that will help our country solve its significant problems and build lasting peace and stability across the region. It is hard to imagine any economic or political renewal in Yugoslavia without a clear and long-term international message. Only a democratic and stable Yugoslavia can ensure stability in the Balkans. We want to emphasize that the democratic political forces in Yugoslavia are committed to this goal. Immediate concerns are ending the war, ensuring the return of refugees, and implementing a political solution in Kosovo that will include the deployment of international forces. However, for establishing lasting peace, the external world must do more than resolve the Kosovo crisis. Military intervention in Kosovo has led to new problems, whether intended or not. By intervening, the West has taken part of the responsibility for finding solutions to these problems. At the same time, Yugoslavs need to make intensive efforts to regain the trust of the external world and restore moral status, lost due to Kosovo. Even before the end of the war, the international community needs to clearly and unequivocally announce that democratic and economic reconstruction in Yugoslavia represents its official and binding position. Such an announcement would give hope to the citizens of our country and encourage the transformation of the political landscape. The political cycle that has brought our country to this tragedy over the past 10 or more years must be broken. If the war ends with a peace agreement under the same leadership, with Slobodan Milosevic at the top, the tragedy and violence will continue," wrote Đinđic and Đukanovic.

The stability of Yugoslavia is crucial due to its size and geographic position in the Balkans and its role in determining the stability or instability of neighboring countries - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Albania. Until now, however, the international strategy for Yugoslavia has been focused on crisis management, while the roots of the crisis have been ignored. Democracy can only be established in our country with a complete political transition in Serbia and the rest of Yugoslavia. This depends on free and fair elections, strengthening the democratic opposition in Serbia, close cooperation with the democratic government of Montenegro, complete isolation of undemocratic forces, and the establishment of an external body to assist in monitoring political changes. Prominent European politicians, with previous Balkan experience, such as former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe Gonzales, former Austrian Chancellor Franz Vranitzky, and Hans Kosnik, a veteran of German Social Democrats, could work in such a commission under the auspices of the OSCE.

Accelerated economic reconstruction of the Balkans will only be possible in some variant of the Marshall Plan. The promise of foreign aid would help democracy in Yugoslavia by reducing pent-up anger. The functioning of the democratic opposition will be difficult after this NATO operation because people will probably consider us part of that Europe - part of that West that bombed us, destroyed bridges, roads and factories and killed civilians. People will protest both in Serbia and Montenegro. But there is hope for the democratic forces. Milosevic's policy is faced with destruction, which would create a fraction of a chance to build something new on these ruins. If anything good can come out of the evil that is now among us, it is a chance, with international help, for a new beginning for Yugoslavia, Đinđic and Đukanovic concluded.

 

The bombing of the Chinese embassy led to different reactions in Belgrade. It was thought that it might slow down some peace initiatives, but in another way it could speed it up because for the first time someone was found who had the power to resist NATO hegemony. China has no political debts to anyone and can lead an independent policy, unlike Russia, said the president of the Democratic Party of Serbia and the future successor of Slobodan Milosevic, Vojislav Kostunica. This opinion is not unique in that it shows skepticism towards Russia's role in the Kosovo peace process despite being voiced by a small opposition party. This party had influence among Serbian traditionalists and intelligentsia and could potentially strengthen and become more influential as it gained great sympathy for its views during the NATO attack.

Kostunica says that Chinese diplomacy "is not strong in words, it is strong in practice". He criticized the principles of the G-8 which can be understood in a completely different way from Western countries. "The Bonn summit did not define the conditions for stopping the bombing, but only decided that the UN should be resurrected so that the aggression against Yugoslavia would be legal," says Kostunica and adds that "Russia has accepted the arrival of international forces in Kosovo participating in the Summit."

- Our country must insist on the arrival of peacekeeping forces on the basis of a precisely defined mandate, limited in time and related only to Kosovo, and the peacekeeping forces cannot include countries that participated in the aggression against Yugoslavia, Kostunica said. Yugoslavia cannot allow a case like in Republika Srpska that "a foreign mission has rights above the civil authorities".

For the first time, the Serbian public had clear doubts and directly expressed clear dissatisfaction with the role of Russia and its envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin. Dusan Nikolis, a researcher at the Institute for International Politics, otherwise known as the son of the famous Yugoslav Spanish fighter and general, Dusan Nikolis, sent an "open letter" to public opinion, accusing Russia of participating in NATO aggression. The Kremlin was afraid that the aid to Serbia with the promised anti-aircraft weapons could confront Russia with its big financiers and thus lose the last chance to return to the geopolitical chessboard as a determined and respectable player," wrote Nikolis.

He says that only giving the artificial impression of an imperial state is important for Russia, comparing Russia's current behavior with the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement of 1938. "Yeltsin's Russia is an accomplice in the systematic, cold, planned, high-tech devastation of Serbia - its industrial and economic base and future. "This devastation of a country was done in front of the eyes of the whole world in the name of solving the internal humanitarian issue, because that's why it's more difficult," Nikolis concluded.

Russians do not like to risk "temporary geopolitical conformity" due to the genocide of "Serb brothers", writes Nikolis. The "Great Titan" is satisfied with the secondary role of mediator and postman of NATO and the USA, claims Nikolis.

Such opinions come after an editorial in the daily newspaper "Politika" in which the question arises as to why Viktor Chernomyrdin canceled the promised trip to Yugoslavia without explanation. Chernomyrdin promised to come to Belgrade on May 9. "The events in Nis and the attack on the Chinese embassy were an opportunity for the Russian envoy to see NATO's personal crimes," Politika wrote, asking "why Chernomyrdin must first talk to American diplomat Strobo Talbot before going to Yugoslavia." Dnevnik suggested that Russia is not enough to end the NATO bombing.

After a new event that changed the development of relations with China in a different way, "Russia's position in the conflict with Yugoslavia seems more like the implementation of NATO measures than resistance to them", the newspaper assessed, concluding that "China has set demands for the end of the bombing of Yugoslavia before any what kind of talks about peace, unlike Russia, which is "collecting proposals".

At the funeral of the murdered Chinese, the influential Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia, Dr. Milovan Bojic, said that the attack on the Chinese embassy was an opportunity to say "no" to the unipolar world. "Kosovo today, Tibet tomorrow," Bojic said.

Instead of a visit, Chernomyrdin invited Milosevic on May 9, but the details of the conversation were not announced, nor was the new time of Chernomyrdin's visit to Yugoslavia.

"The bombing of the Chinese embassy cannot be accidental," stated Pan Zhaolin, the Chinese Ambassador to Belgrade. Immediately after the bombing, a special team of high-ranking Chinese officials and experts arrived in Belgrade to investigate the conditions of the embassy's destruction. The embassy was hit by three bombs that exploded and two that did not, completely destroying one side of the embassy. The Chinese community in Belgrade continues to protest. About 500 Chinese citizens protested against the killing of three embassy officials, including a correspondent from the Chinese agency Xinhua.

The rescue operation was extremely difficult, said the head of the Belgrade Fire Department. NATO first attacked electrical facilities with special bombs, and then again last week. Belgrade and a large part of Serbia were left without electricity. NATO is employing a particularly inhumane tactic, added the firefighter, because after the first wave of attacks comes a second wave, which produces more victims among rescue teams and emergency services. The first attack on the Yugoslav Army General Staff on this route killed several people, and about 40 were injured. In the second attack on the "Yugoslavia" hotel, the president of the Yugoslav Left (JUL) Ljubisa Ristic was injured. JUL is an important party in the left ruling coalition, and its general secretary is the wife of Mr. Milosevic, Dr. Mira Markovic.

Military analyst Miroslav Lazanski believes that the bombing of the Chinese embassy is a severe attack on the peace process. "China is a major country in the Security Council. The adoption of the G-8 peace plan depends on China. One of the conclusions of the G-8 summit was to inform China of the conclusions and request Belgrade's cooperation. It is very difficult to prove that the Embassy was not intentionally targeted like many other currently empty targets, but hitting these buildings has only symbolic meaning. This is the embassy of the only country that now demands a cessation of bombings to continue the peace process. These two demands are not considered by industrial countries and Russia," Lazanski noted.

China's anger could also be a diplomatic method. In the same way, China was provoked a few months ago to take some steps in the Security Council. The new Macedonian government surprisingly recognized Taiwan a few days before the UN Security Council's decision on the deployment of UN peace troops in Macedonia. After the Macedonian decision, China, as usual, vetoed in the UN Security Council, and UN forces were replaced by NATO forces. In light of recent events in Kosovo, this game is clearer. China's anger was instrumental in bringing NATO forces into Macedonia.

China's anger could lead to a Chinese veto in the Security Council. This means that NATO can continue bombing and military operations and that NATO's interests are not peace and the peace process, Lazanski added. In this way, NATO would not be under UN control, avoiding political consequences for the decision-makers in the aggression against Yugoslavia.

The bombing of the Chinese embassy raised many questions among diplomats in Belgrade, especially among the Russians. "The US government's apology is a signal that the next target could be the Russian embassy. Again they might announce regret, and everyone else must be satisfied. And again bombing, then again regret. This tactic does not bring a solution. Only punishment and real retribution can bring responsible aggressors to account," said a high-ranking official of the Russian embassy in Belgrade, who did not want to be named.

When Talbot arrived in Moscow on Tuesday, May 11, he had to, by his own admission, escape from "enraged Serbs, Chinese, and Russians, who were demonstrating on the sidewalk in front of the American embassy." That evening, during our meeting, Yuri Memedov warned Talbot that Yeltsin was close to canceling Chernomyrdin's mission, after the destruction of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.

In those days, Russian President Boris Yeltsin again replaced the prime minister. Primakov was removed, and Sergei Stepashin came in. The change officially took place on May 12, but the Finnish president, as he admitted, based on rumors he had previously heard, "drew the right conclusion." He noted to the Americans that a change was to come and that it could happen on May 10, and when it occurred two days later, Ahtisaari's reputation as a connoisseur of Russia significantly increased. This was influenced by the fact that the Americans tried to verify this information through their channels and came to a different, incorrect conclusion. Talbot assessed that Chernomyrdin was secretly satisfied with the replacement of Primakov, believing that he would have greater authority in negotiations.

"In the Yugoslav crisis, Russia will not be satisfied with the role of a technical courier that merely relays proposals from one side to another," declared Vladimir Putin, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, to journalists on May 12, after a Security Council meeting held by President Boris Yeltsin in the Kremlin. Putin noted that the only issue discussed at the meeting was the Yugoslav crisis. According to Putin, Russia must consider the real fact that most European countries support NATO's actions in Yugoslavia. "Taking this into account, Russia will deviate from its national interests. Therefore, the instructions given today by the president to the ministers of defense, foreign affairs, and other Security Council members will be implemented as soon as possible," reported Vladimir Putin, as relayed by the Interfax agency.

On the same day in Moscow, Viktor Chernomyrdin, the Special Representative of the Russian President for Yugoslavia, and Strobe Talbott, the First Deputy Secretary of State of the USA, met to discuss peaceful solutions for the Balkans. According to "Interfax" from informed sources, it is not excluded that Chernomyrdin and Talbott will focus attention on some issues where there is still disagreement between Russia and the USA. These include, for example, the sequence of withdrawal from Kosovo of Yugoslav army units and police forces, the composition of international forces in the province, and the form of the transitional administration.

During those days, Boris Yeltsin threatened that Russia would withdraw from the international negotiation process on Yugoslavia. This would express its dissatisfaction, given that Moscow's diplomatic efforts have so far had no effect on the Westerners. Russia may cease to participate in the negotiations if its proposals and efforts are not considered, reported European agencies. Chernomyrdin testifies that Yeltsin decided on this also because the intensity of the bombings significantly increased after the G8 meeting in Bonn and the consensus reached on the principles of the peace agreement.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who had previously planned a visit of a German delegation to China but did not want to cancel it even after the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, stated in Beijing that Bonn seeks a comprehensive and thorough investigation concerning the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. "The truth will come out, and China need not fear," said Schröder. The German chancellor went on this visit alone, without the planned large delegation that was to include numerous businessmen and other German dignitaries.

Responding to Yeltsin's statements about a possible withdrawal, NATO Secretary Javier Solana expressed hope that Russia would continue to act in seeking a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Kosovo.

It was announced that the Russian president would meet with French President Jacques Chirac, who arrives in Moscow on Wednesday evening. German Chancellor was unsuccessful in persuading the Chinese authorities of the means through which a political solution to the crisis in Kosovo can be achieved. Schröder admitted that there are "different assessments" in relation to the political solution; Chinese leaders demand a cessation of bombing before any UN resolution is adopted. The only thing they agreed on, Schröder specifies, is the necessity to promptly address the crisis in Kosovo "within the framework of the UN." On the same day, May 12, a German journalist, who was released by Yugoslav authorities on Tuesday along with a compatriot after being detained for nearly a month, stated on Wednesday that he was released on a personal order from Slobodan Milosevic. Hans Peter Schnitzler, aged 56, a correspondent for the television channel SAT-1, was arrested by the Yugoslav military police on April 16 and detained on charges of espionage. "The investigating judge informed me yesterday morning that I could return home, since President Milosevic issued a military authorities' order to release me," explained the journalist to the Associated Press, while waiting in a Belgrade hotel to get his passport back. "I hope one day I can return to Yugoslavia," added the journalist, who was released along with his compatriot Bodo Weber, arrested at the beginning of April and also charged with espionage.

This act was the result of a plea from the Russian envoy to Milosevic.

Schröder's visit to Beijing was an integral part of the peace initiatives undertaken by the German government. Germany had previously established its "secret" negotiating channel with Belgrade, as testified by some close associates of the Yugoslav president, and achieved a significant level of cooperation and consensus with Russia. China was the remaining, third point that was an important support in finding a formula for peace. Schröder's request for a public investigation into the American bombing of the Chinese embassy was not only pressure on Washington but also an important step towards softening China's stance to accept a UN Security Council resolution on Kosovo. In Beijing, the German chancellor presented the principles adopted at the G8 meeting. China made no commitments, but the demonstrations ceased thereafter.

Analyzing what happened behind the scenes of these diplomatic moves, it is significant that none of the countries wanted to yield their primacy to another. It was assessed that the replacement of Primakov, along with Yeltsin's threats to withdraw from the negotiations, was not the result of "influence from Russian communists and nationalists," as it was then interpreted, but was rather a kind of American response to Russian-German actions. Schröder's decision to go to Beijing at all costs, amidst the harsh confrontation between Washington and Beijing, of course, could not have pleased NATO, which was completely bypassed, and Washington found itself facing a fait accompli. In such circumstances, intensified bombing was meant to show who was the most important party in this conflict.