Gogic: Kurti would rather have new elections than accept the CSM

Political analyst Ognjen Gogic assesses that Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti would rather go for early parliamentary elections than accept the formation of the CSM, however, he points out that Kurti currently has other mechanisms at his disposal to prevent its establishment.

Whether Kurti opts for new elections or one of his "trump cards," Gogic believes that "CSM has no chance to happen."

Gogic thinks that if early parliamentary elections were called, Kurti could garner new supporters by portraying himself as a victim, leaving the prime ministerial position due to Western pressure to accept the formation of the CSM.

To obstruct the formation of the CSM, the first step for Pristina before calling parliamentary elections, according to Gogic, could be the examination of the draft statutes of the CSM before the Constitutional Court of Kosovo.

"I would agree with the assessment that Kurti would rather go for early parliamentary elections than accept the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities. However, this doesn't mean that he is currently considering dissolving the assembly and going for early elections because he has other mechanisms at his disposal to prevent the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities. They hinted at this in Pristina, suggesting that if the draft statute being discussed is accepted in the dialogue, it will be submitted to the Constitutional Court of Kosovo. So, in essence, the Constitutional Court of Kosovo could be the first next step that Pristina uses to sabotage and obstruct the process of forming the CSM," Gogic said for Kosovo Online.

After that, Gogic points out, the next "landmine" for the formation of the CSM could be the issue of elections, but in the north of Kosovo.

He notes that the CSM cannot be formed until new elections are held in the four municipalities in the north, both for mayors and the Municipal Assembly.

"So, that will be the next landmine in this process of forming the CSM, and the entire story about the CSM is more likely to collapse in those elections than in parliamentary elections in Kosovo," Gogic assesses.

Kurti, Gogic says, is not forced to consider early parliamentary elections because he has other mechanisms at his disposal that he has not exhausted to prevent the formation of the CSM.

Gogic believes that if early parliamentary elections were to occur in Kosovo, they would probably not end unfavorably for Kurti.

"So, from what I know, Kurti still enjoys tremendous support from voters in Kosovo, and he would probably repeat the same result. Moreover, as he did last time, he would likely gain new sympathies because it would seem like he had to leave the prime ministerial position due to Western pressure to make concessions to Serbs and Serbia. Voters in Kosovo would probably reward him again for that sacrifice, making him even stronger," Gogic emphasized.

The question, he adds, is what the campaign would be like if Kurti told voters that he was leaving the prime ministerial position because he refused to form the CSM.

In that case, as Gogic says, Kurti would put all other parties in a position to justify that they are not the ones wanting to form the CSM.

"He would then put the PDK, LDK, and other parties in a situation where they now go to elections under the suspicion that they are running to form the CSM, which would be a very unfavorable situation for them. So, that would probably affect their election results," the political analyst assessed.

Gogic concludes that Kurti is not contemplating early parliamentary elections, but if he opted for them, he would return to power even stronger than he is now.

"So, in either scenario, the CSM has no chance because Pristina will not be willing to take any steps towards its formation at any point," Gogic concluded.