Gogic: Two paths to elections, key question is whether they will be combined with local ones

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic told Kosovo Online that there are two possible ways for Kosovo to reach new elections. One option involves MPs agreeing to constitute the Assembly, that is, electing its Speaker, and then dissolving parliament with a two-thirds majority. Alternatively, they could elect the Speaker but miss the deadline to form a government, which would then allow the President of Kosovo to dissolve the Assembly.

The second scenario, he says, will arise if the Assembly is not constituted by the deadline set by the Constitutional Court, July 26, which would lead to a legal vacuum with no clear exit unless the Court issues new instructions on how to proceed.

“The Constitution doesn’t even recognize the scenario where the parliament fails to constitute. The only legal way out is for the Constitutional Court to take a stance on what is legally possible if no political agreement is reached and MPs fail to constitute the parliament, and whether, in such a case, the President of Kosovo could dissolve it,” Gogic explains.

According to the current constitutional provisions, he says, the President cannot do this, because she could be accused of violating the Constitution if she dissolves the Assembly after July 26. That’s why he believes Vjosa Osmani will likely appeal to the Constitutional Court and request an interpretation on whether the conditions for dissolving the Assembly have been met.

Under the current constitutional norms, Gogic continues, the President can dissolve the parliament if a government is not formed within 60 days after a candidate for Prime Minister is nominated, but that is not the case here.

“The Constitutional Court can, and is expected to, provide a broader interpretation of constitutional articles and, in the spirit of the Constitution, declare that the functioning of the system has been disrupted and that the President may dissolve the Assembly. This would create a legal precedent and establish a broader interpretation of constitutional norms, but it wouldn’t be the first time the Court has done something like this,” the analyst notes.

He points out that starting from July 26, under both scenarios, there will be “juggling with dates,” and the main question will be whether parliamentary elections should be held together with local ones.

“Scheduling parliamentary elections on the same day as local elections is possible if a political agreement is reached relatively quickly, but this is more a matter of politics than law, since there are clearly different interests at play. The current government, meaning the Self-Determination Movement, would likely prefer to combine parliamentary and local elections and hold them on October 12, because they believe that would give them an advantage in the local elections. On the other hand, opposition MPs do not want that and may try to find a way to delay parliamentary elections until after the local ones, even though holding two election cycles in a short time might be economically inefficient,” Gogic says.

If, on July 26, it is officially determined that the Assembly has not been constituted and the Constitutional Court states that Osmani can dissolve the parliament, Gogic concludes that this would likely enable elections to be held as early as October.