Gulic: Kosovo won't be a top topic in election campaigns in Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatia

Elections in the countries of the region are always closely monitored in Serbia due to good neighborly relations and the fact that a significant number of Serbian people live in some of them, and the political situation in these countries is of particular importance to Belgrade, seen as a kind of center for all Serbs, historian Dr. Milan Gulic says about the campaigns and voting for various levels of government in the coming year in the region, including North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Romania.

Regarding whether and to what extent the Kosovo issue will be addressed in these election processes and how the election results could influence the policies of these countries toward the Kosovo question, Gulic notes that there should not be any big surprises.

"When it comes to Serbia's relations with Kosovo, or, more precisely, the attitude toward Kosovo, in the countries of the region where elections are scheduled for the next year, things are generally quite clear. Some of these countries are either NATO members or close to NATO, and there, the attitude toward Kosovo, I would say, is a closed matter," Gulic, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Contemporary History in Belgrade, says.

He points out that of all the countries surrounding Serbia, only Romania and Bosnia and Herzegovina have not recognized the independence of Kosovo, while all other countries have done so.

"I would say that in most of these countries, there is no need to even debate the Kosovo issue, and I don't think it will be an important question in the election process in those countries. Except, perhaps, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has not recognized the independence of Kosovo only because the concept of that state is very specific. Decisions on important issues are made by the consensus of the three constituent nations, and, of course, the Serbian people have no interest in recognizing the independence of Kosovo. So, that issue might be mentioned in Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the other hand, Romania has not recognized the independence of Kosovo, but I think it would simply follow high politics and whatever might be the result of some agreement between Belgrade and Pristina, which is questionable whether it can even be reached," Gulic says.

Therefore, he believes that the issue of Kosovo and the overall relationship between Belgrade and Pristina will not be high on the political agenda in the election year, and the election processes in the region will not divert the attention of the international community from the relations between Serbia and Kosovo or the events in Kosovo.

"The Kosovo issue is decades old, and it was by no means resolved in 1999 when international forces entered the southern Serbian province, nor when Kosovo declared independence. It is a problem that will continue to exist in the coming years because there are too many open questions. In the end, how can a problem be extinguished in which it is difficult to reach an agreement, and an agreement is impossible to reach in negotiations where you set things up so that one side must win everything and the other side must lose everything. That is simply not negotiation; it's a dictate and an ultimatum, and it has been that way until now, and it can be in the future. So, I'm not sure that any elections in the countries of the region can put aside that hot spot that constantly exists, smolders, or flares up in some way," Gulic is convinced.

He adds that elections are a regular thing, Kosovo is a persistent problem, and these are not things that can somehow overlap or cancel each other out.

Speaking about the interest of certain influential states in the events in the region, including elections, such as Turkey concerning Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and the Albanian issue in general in these areas, Gulic says that history teaches us that the events in the Balkans, unfortunately, attracted many large or significant powers that in some way tried to create their interests or the interests of their protectors.

Turkey is not the only country interested in Bosnia and Herzegovina, interested in the situation in Kosovo, and generally interested in the Albanian issue in these regions. This pressure and the influence of different foreign forces are the reasons why there will be talk in Bosnia if there is talk about Kosovo in the election process. A part of Bosnia wants to follow what allies from the West or the East, such as Turkey, expect, and that is for Bosnia to recognize the independence of Kosovo. On the other hand, Serbs have their own attitude toward that, regardless of what happens in the negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo. So there will be more pressure and interference, not only when it comes to Kosovo but also other problematic issues in this area, Gulic believes.

He adds that Croatia, which will have presidential, parliamentary, and European Parliament elections in 2024, is always interesting due to the events on the political scene because, as Gulic says, it is at about two quite distant poles, and also because of the importance that the Serbian issue still has for us.

"But when it comes to Croatia's strategic positions, there is no difference between these poles on the political spectrum; there hasn't been, and there won't be in the future. The attitude of Zagreb toward the events of the 90s and toward the independence of Kosovo, is not something that will change regardless of the election outcome. This is not only because Croatia is a member of NATO and the EU, following their policies, but also because the connection between Croatian and Albanian issues is again a historical issue. Zagreb and Croatian politics have been perceived as friends of Albanian Kosovo decades before the situation there escalated and before Kosovo even declared independence and was recognized by some countries. History tells us very clearly that the relationship between Croatia and the Albanians in Kosovo was friendly, at least in the era of socialist Yugoslavia. If we keep that in mind, it's not surprising that Zagreb's attitude toward the Kosovo issue, toward Pristina, is friendly and benevolent, regardless of who will form the government in Zagreb and who will be the new Croatian president," Gulic says.