Lunic: With the announcement of a new strategy, the EU acknowledged unreadiness for security threats; Western Balkans still a potential hot spot

Executive Director of the Strategic Policy Council Nikola Lunic says that the announcement of a new security strategy is an acknowledgment by the EU that it is unprepared to face security threats such as war in Eastern Europe, which is why the Western Balkans, especially Serbia, should take this announcement very seriously.

"From many intelligence sources, and recently we have seen it from the US intelligence community, there are assessments that the Western Balkans could escalate in tensions, potentially leading to violence and conflicts. The US intelligence community's forecast for 2024 indicates a potential escalation of violence in Bosnia and Herzegovina after Dodik's attempt at secession, as well as between Serbia and Kosovo.

"In such a hypothetical situation, only Serbia and the Serbian people would lose. The only winner in that scenario would be Vladimir Putin, no one else," Lunic says.

He assesses that the announcements by European officials about defense as a future priority, along with increased investment in their own defense industry, followed after announcements that the US might change its position towards other NATO members.

"The European Union has already increased its defense production by 40 percent. However, after Trump's statement, which was intentionally vague for voters, part of the EU is anxious, fearing what kind of relationship the US will have with NATO. Is there a possibility of withdrawal, although that chance is small, or less involvement," Lunic believes.

He explains that the key problem lies in understanding Article 5 of the Washington Treaty on NATO, which, he claims, does not actually obligate member states to enter into war if another member is attacked.

"Article 5 simply states that an 'attack on one is an attack on all NATO members.' However, each country decides individually how it will respond to such an attack. That's why the European Union is considering its own army, and primarily to have a European defense union within NATO that will be fully integrated and where there will be no consensus, but the defense of those countries that enter will be based on the concept that an attack on one country is an attack on all and that all countries will defend together," Lunic emphasizes.

When asked if such a concept would mean confrontation with NATO, Lunic emphasizes that EU members are now trying to find a compromise position with NATO, which would entail a much higher level of obligations but also a higher level of military spending.

He mentions that Germany and Denmark have gone furthest in this direction, practically integrating their armed forces.

"This has never happened before between two sovereign countries. Integrated forces could soon be expected, especially among countries on the eastern flank of NATO. They are interested in drastically increasing their military spending and much more integrating their defense than has been the case so far through the Euro-Atlantic alliance," Lunic believes.

He assesses that this concept will not affect peacetime structures.

"However, in war or any hypothetical action, countries in such a union will act synchronously. It shouldn't come as a surprise now, just as Germany deploys its troops in Baltic countries, that there will be much larger deployments, of one country's forces on the territory of another. In that context, I think there will be much greater interoperability and much greater security obligations for all who enter that union," Lunic concludes.