Novakovic: Little has been implemented from the Washington Agreement

Senior Fellow at the Center for International and Security Affairs Igor Novakovic says that five years after the signing of the Washington Agreement, the impression is that little has been implemented apart from Israel’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence, and that there should be no illusions that work will be done on its implementation at this moment.

“Without the key person who led the process, and at that time it was Mr. (Richard) Grenell, there should be no illusions that the Washington Agreement will now be implemented,” Novakovic told Kosovo Online.

He sees it as “very indicative” that there are no U.S. ambassadors anywhere in the region, including Belgrade and Pristina. U.S. policy toward the region, he assesses, is in some ways quite disinterested because there is no engagement, with much of it left to the European Union.

“Some infrastructural parts of the Washington Agreement will be fulfilled regardless of the agreement itself, such as the construction of the highway, since it is currently being financed from European Union funds. For other issues, such as the railway, we will see, because after reaching the agreement it is necessary to secure financing for such projects, and that does not exist,” Novakovic explained.

He emphasized that the Washington Agreement had a dual function—one was to consolidate the points already reached through the negotiations then led by Grenell, and the other was to introduce new points, many of which were not necessarily related to the relationship between Belgrade and Pristina.

Asked whether a “Washington Agreement Two” is possible, Novakovic believes it is theoretically possible, but repeats that it should be kept in mind that at the moment the administration in Washington is not particularly interested in this region, with its focus being on Ukraine and China, i.e., on relations with Russia and China.

“It may be possible that in the second half of Trump’s mandate that interest could return, or possibly with Richard Grenell’s return to a position of significance for the region. At this moment, however, that is not the case,” he noted.

He also said he is not sure whether relations between Belgrade and Pristina would have been normalized even if the Washington Agreement had been implemented.

“Normalization of relations has two dimensions. The first is technical, which means that Belgrade and Pristina can coexist normally, and the second is narrative. The biggest problem is that not only has narrative normalization not occurred, but it seems to me that we are currently in a bigger problem than ever. What the agreement would probably have contributed to is the technical aspect of normalization.

But at present, with the current relationship and narrative on both sides, it seems to me that there is little prospect of expecting normalization of relations in the foreseeable future,” Novakovic assessed.

The Washington Agreement on the normalization of economic relations was signed on September 4, 2020, at the White House by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and then–Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti, in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump, who was at the time serving his first term. Vucic and Hoti each signed separate agreements with the U.S. administration.