Surlic: Hamza held demanding positions, Abdixhiku a technocrat, Haradinaj an outsider

Stefan Surlic, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade, says for Kosovo Online that the upcoming elections in Kosovo will actually be a race for second place, which will determine what the future government will look like.

According to Surlic, the Self-Determination Movement of Albin Kurti will receive the most votes and it would be realistic to expect around 40%. In such a situation, the position of prime minister will be conditional. The Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) is already being mentioned as the most likely coalition partner for the future government.

"Here we come to the Mayor of South Mitrovica, Bedri Hamza, who represents the conservative wing of PDK, but who has not been compromised in relation to Thaci and Veseli in the previous period. His experience in political terms and holding very demanding positions makes him a viable candidate. He gathers the conservative wing of PDK in relation to the party's leader Krasniqi and others. There is also a large faction within PDK that might oppose him as a candidate because the younger and alternative wing of the party, if we can call it that, supports Vlora Citaku. In this case, the race will not be about the prime minister's position, but rather about offers for the presidential position: either Bedri Hamza or Vlora Citaku. This is the direction PDK is heading in case of a coalition with Self-Determination," Surlic says.

Regarding the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) candidate for prime minister, Lumir Abdixhiku, our interlocutor says he is a technocrat, someone from the academic world, criticized for lacking charisma.

"He is criticized for basing his campaign on generalities, such as promising more jobs, a better economic situation, and higher social expenditures. However, realistically, he will not be able to easily fulfill all these promises, and there is nothing particularly authentic about his campaign, at least so far. Many criticize him for not having, as they say, some populist touch to attract more votes, especially from those who left LDK and supported Vjosa Osmani, who gave her support to Self-Determination," Surlic says.

For former Kosovo Prime Minister and leader of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), Ramush Haradinaj, Surlic says he is an absolute outsider in these elections, despite his bombastic announcements about successfully bringing Kosovo into NATO as a full member and resolving problematic relations with the United States and some European capitals.

"Essentially, he is fighting to maintain his voter base in Metohija and secure at least 10% of the votes, but he is not seen as a potential coalition partner, let alone as the future prime minister. He is a political veteran, aiming to defend his existing political legacy and support, not to become a key player or a veto player in the next coalition," Surlic points out.

As for Albin Kurti, the candidate for prime minister, Surlic assesses that he is at a disadvantage concerning the promises made during the previous election cycle about improving economic conditions in Kosovo, because the reality is that there is neither enough domestic nor foreign investment. However, Surlic notes that Kurti has replaced the lack of economic growth and efforts to fight crime with a policy of sovereignty across Kosovo's entire territory, especially the north.

"Kurti continues along the path of ensuring Kosovo's complete statehood, and on this wave, he will win the most votes. His hardline policy is praised, and he believes that rejecting Western conditions has put Kosovo in a better position than accepting, as he puts it, rotten compromises. His biggest public loss is seen as the missed opportunity for Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe. He was very close to it; all it would have taken was to send the statute of the Community of Serb Municipalities to the Constitutional Court, but he refused to do so, and for many analysts in Kosovo, this was a missed opportunity for Kosovo’s international legal subjectivity," Surlic says.

As he concludes, the 500,000 votes Kurti promises, which would mean winning more than 55% of the votes, seems completely unrealistic. It is more likely that Self-Determination will have to enter into a coalition, most likely with PDK, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the future presidency of Kosovo will be handed over to PDK. Such a government, Surlic adds, would imply a kind of thawing of relations with the West, and Albin Kurti could claim that he remained true to his policy, but that he must be in a coalition with someone more inclined toward cooperation and accepting some compromises, primarily based on the demands of the United States.

According to what Richard Grenell and other officials have said, Surlic concludes, it is clear that Pristina is required to radically change the policy it has pursued so far.