Is Turkey taking on a key role in the Western Balkans?

From October, Turkey will assume the rotating post of KFOR commander in Kosovo, while at the same time, next year it will host the NATO Summit. For analysts speaking to Kosovo Online—from Tirana to Belgrade—despite the fact that Turkey is the country that has spent the longest time in the “EU waiting room,” it is simultaneously becoming an increasingly important partner of the EU and a NATO member with clear geopolitical goals, one of which is primacy in the Western Balkans.

Written by: Djordje Barovic

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that the Alliance’s Summit will be held on July 7–8 next year in the Beştepe presidential complex in Ankara.

“I want to thank Turkey for hosting this important meeting. Turkey has been a strong NATO ally for more than 70 years and makes an invaluable contribution to our shared security,” Rutte emphasized.
He added that at the next Summit, NATO will continue to strengthen itself in order to be “stronger, fairer, and more effective,” ready to respond to “key security challenges.”

Since NATO’s founding, Turkey has only once hosted a Summit—back in 2004 in Istanbul.

At the same time, in the regular annual rotation, Turkish General Özkan Ulutaş will take command of KFOR in Kosovo in October.

“Our country, which has made a significant and decisive contribution to the security of NATO and the Euro-Atlantic region, will continue to do so in the future. The task will be carried out neutrally and transparently, in accordance with NATO and United Nations resolutions,” said Turkish Defense Ministry spokesman Rear Admiral Zeki Aktürk.

Turkey’s ambassador to Pristina, Sabri Tunç Angılı, recently stressed that “KFOR is key to the stability of Kosovo and the Balkans,” but also noted that Turkey had launched a “Balkan Peace Platform” to encourage “open and more honest” dialogue among political actors in the region.

He emphasized that relations between Kosovo and Turkey are built on historical, cultural, and human ties, which today translate into political, economic, and security cooperation.

“Kosovo has a strong lobby in Turkey. In the Balkans, we always view Albanians as brothers, because from our perspective we share a common history. Many Albanians have significantly influenced the development of modern Turkish identity,” Angılı stated.

“Orbits and Special Interests”

Senior advisor at the ISAC Fund, Marko Savkovic, is certain that official Ankara “has special interests in the Western Balkans,” while Turkey’s increasingly prominent role within NATO is a consequence of the West’s desire to keep the country “in its orbit.”

“Turkey is an important NATO member, a country that actively contributes to NATO, and a country that clearly has certain, special interests in the Western Balkans, to which it is linked in many ways. So far, it has been at least an acceptable partner to both Belgrade and Pristina,” Savkovic told Kosovo Online.
Savkovic stresses that the “political West” is making every effort to keep Turkey as its ally.

“The political West is working hard to keep Turkey in its orbit, Turkey as an ally. We recall that after the 2016 coup attempt, relations between the West and Ankara cooled significantly. At one point there was even the possibility that Turkey would be suspended from NATO membership; it came very close to Russia. At one moment it wanted and attempted to acquire Russian weaponry and military equipment instead of American. The United States had traditionally been the country Turkey relied on. But that did not happen,” Savkovic said in his interview with Kosovo Online.

He pointed out that Turkey has recently gained “growing importance” as a mediator in the Ukrainian crisis, but also in Middle Eastern developments, which is why it is a “logical decision” for Ankara to host the next NATO Summit.

“In general, great powers want to have a country through which it is possible to communicate with the ‘other side’ one is opposed to. Turkey, I would say, is that country in this case. Naturally, it is a mid-sized regional power capable of projecting its influence in its immediate neighborhood. There is no solution to the Middle East situation without at least a constructive role for Turkey. It is very important in communication with Russia, and its relationship with Greece must also be monitored—Greece is indeed a NATO ally, but we know how complex that relationship is,” Savkovic explained.

Asked how much the next NATO Summit, to be held in the region, will affect the Western Balkans, this analyst emphasized that the fact “is not without significance,” but reminded that the region is not only on

“NATO’s agenda,” but that many countries here are NATO members.

“I believe these countries will already nominate some of the topics or problems that we are all facing together. But NATO’s role, which is primarily focused on the Ukrainian crisis, I see above all in the context of stabilizing circumstances. NATO is monitoring the situation; it has not intervened because there has not yet been an outbreak of conflict here. But it will certainly try to send the message that it is present for any eventuality, to guarantee at least a semblance of stability in the Western Balkans,” Savkovic said.

In the framework of the regular rotation at the helm of KFOR, the new commander of this mission is Turkish General Özkan Ulutaş, who has already served in this role before.
Savkovic said that such an appointment is not surprising.

“If we look at who the commanders have been in recent years, it is always either someone from Italy, Hungary, or Turkey. As a rule, it is always one of the countries either neighboring or in relatively close proximity, and which are particularly interested. After all, their contingent is numerically more significant in the total composition of KFOR, which, as we know, is no longer as large as it once was. That is why I do not attach special significance to this appointment,” Savkovic stated.

He reminded that the Turkish general, like all previous KFOR commanders, will be accountable exclusively to NATO structures.

“He does not primarily answer to Ankara. His responsibility is to the mission, which remains a NATO mission—the Alliance’s longest-running mission at present—and he will have to act in accordance with the tasks assigned to him,” Savkovic said.

Benefits and Neutrality

Professor of International Relations Afrim Hoti told Kosovo Online that Turkey’s neutral stance toward both Serbia and Kosovo could contribute to their rapprochement and to de-escalation in the Western Balkans.

He emphasized that it is “good news” that Turkey will take command of KFOR from October, given its position toward both Pristina and Belgrade.

“The benefit of having Turkey as the leader in KFOR lies in the position this country has toward both Kosovo and Serbia. Turkey enjoys a much more neutral position toward the two countries; it is not ‘tied’ only to Kosovo, but also has good relations with Serbia,” Hoti said.

That is why he is convinced that Turkey could play a “better role” in the interest of both sides.

“From my point of view, it is in the interest not only of Kosovo but also of Serbia to become closer to one another, to communicate, to build bridges rather than divide into ethnic groups,” Hoti stressed.

He underlined that it is also important for the Western Balkans that the next NATO Summit will be held in Turkey.

“In the NATO context I do not think the location of the Summit is crucial, although Turkey is one of the Alliance’s key countries. But for the Western Balkans it is important because of Turkey’s much more neutral position in the region, as well as its excellent ties with Serbia. Therefore, Turkey’s hosting of the Summit could lead Serbian political leaders to be much more cooperative, more engaged, and more constructive in the Western Balkans, which would also contribute to de-escalating the situation—first between Serbia and Kosovo, and then across the entire Western Balkans,” Hoti concluded.

Negotiating and Military Potentials

The President of the Euro-Atlantic Council of North Macedonia, Ismet Ramadani, also emphasized that the NATO Alliance increasingly values Turkey’s negotiating abilities as well as its geographic and strategic importance.

“There is enormous respect for Turkey due to its geographic and strategic position. In an article by a Turkish analyst it is highlighted that it is easy for France and Macron to be NATO members when their immediate neighbors are Liechtenstein, Monaco, Switzerland. Turkey, however, is in a position where its neighbors are Syria, Iraq, Iran,” Ramadani told Kosovo Online.

He added that these are just some of the reasons why it is no surprise that Ankara will host the NATO Summit next year.

“Turkey remains very important in NATO as a member. First, it is the second-largest active military power in NATO and possesses military capacities worthy of respect, ranking among the top four or five NATO members. At the same time, it is significant that Turkey already plays a major role in negotiating processes. Turkey is a power capable of participating in the achievement of peace agreements,” Ramadani stressed, citing Ankara’s mediation in the Russia–Ukraine dialogue.

On the other hand, this analyst added that Turkey’s military potential must also not be ignored in the case of potential hotspots, especially in the Western Balkans.

“All of this gives Turkey importance,” Ramadani underlined.

He explained that the country is rapidly preparing for the upcoming NATO meeting and that a complex has been chosen for the purpose that can accommodate 15,000 people.

“Some even compare it to the Pentagon, perhaps even more impressive in terms of modern technology,” the analyst revealed.

He has no doubt that NATO’s choice of Turkey as host also took into account the influence Turkey has in certain countries, including in the Western Balkans.

“Regardless of nostalgic comments or suggestions that it wants to build a new ‘empire,’ the fact is that Turkey is quite present in this region. Especially with investments, whether in Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania,” Ramadani said.

Asked how realistic claims are that Ankara harbors “Ottoman nostalgia,” this analyst said that “modern times” require every country to be present in the region in which it is located.

“I believe that Turkey’s presence as a military, political, and economic power in the Balkans can be coordinated with NATO members, especially the U.S., because they are aware of its influence in the Balkans, as well as in the Middle East,” Ramadani noted.

He reminded that the West initially criticized Turkey for entering northern Syria without prior consultation within NATO, but soon recognized its importance in achieving peace.

“Time has shown that through its entry into northern Syria, Turkey managed to prepare rebels against Assad, and now this area is 80 percent under Turkish influence. A few months ago, Turkey managed to reach a peace agreement with the Kurds, who have been fighting and losing many people in uprisings for decades. So that is another reason why Turkey plays a role in bringing about peace,” Ramadani emphasized.

As for the influence of official Ankara in the Western Balkans, this expert said it is not just “nostalgia.”

“Turkey remains a factor that can preserve peace and establish a certain type of relationship between military structures and political forces in the Western Balkans,” Ramadani said confidently.
As part of NATO’s regular annual rotation, from this autumn the mission will once again be headed by returning commander Orhan Ulutaş.

Ramadani said that his appointment was not accidental but comes at a “tense moment.”

He recalled that during his first mandate, after the events in Banjska and the unrest in which KFOR soldiers were attacked, General Ulutaş managed to calm the situation.

“Turkey’s politics and influence in Serbian politics and in Kosovo nonetheless contributed to the situation today being calmer at the borders in northern Kosovo,” the analyst said.

He added that NATO’s great merit lies in encouraging negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina to achieve an “efficient and rational agreement.”

He sees the decisive role in this belonging to the U.S.

“There will likely be political-diplomatic subordination initiated by the Trump administration. Regardless of whether political structures in Kosovo and Serbia are satisfied or dissatisfied, I believe this Trump administration will definitely contribute to developing relations between Kosovo and Serbia,” Ramadani concluded.

Geopolitical Interests and Alliances

Journalist and analyst from Tirana, Dritan Laçi, noted that official Ankara has its own geopolitical interests, which also include the Western Balkans, while the U.S. and EU want Turkey “on their side” as an important and powerful military ally.

“We are in a situation that could be described as ‘war and peace,’ and Turkey is at the center of these events. At the same time, for the U.S. and EU, Turkey is an important, powerful ally, which is why they want to bring it as close as possible,” Laçi told Kosovo Online.

He explained that Turkey has shown itself to be a key factor in stabilizing the situation in Syria, but also has its own geopolitical interests.

“Turkey is trying to take on a dominant role in the war between Ukraine and Russia and from the beginning insisted that Ankara should be the organizer of peace talks to end the war,” the analyst specified.

Turkey will again assume the post of KFOR commander in October, and Laçi said this is not accidental and is due to several reasons.

“This is related to broader geopolitics, but also to several open conflict zones worldwide. Let us not forget that KFOR itself, under Turkey’s leadership, played a very important role in the Banjska attack.

This fact should not be forgotten. Clearly, this gave Turkey an advantage,” the analyst said.

He added that the situation in Kosovo and Serbia should also be taken into account, as well as Ankara’s “long-term geopolitical vision.”

“When we speak of Turkey today, we are speaking of a factor that seeks to take on a key and dominant role in peace or ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Palestine, and in what is happening in Gaza,” Laçi specified.

As another reason for the choice of a Turkish general as KFOR commander, the analyst emphasized the excellent relations Ankara has with both Belgrade and Pristina.

“Taking into account the good relations Turkey has with official Belgrade—not overlooking the investments Turkey has made in Serbia. On the other hand, Turkey is ‘playing’ with what is often called a kind of ‘Muslim brotherhood’ with Kosovo as a population and with Kosovo as a state, since it was one of the first countries to support its independence. This may also be the main reason why Turkey was again chosen to have its general head the peacekeeping forces in Kosovo,” Laçi concluded.