Vuksanovic: It is not realistic for the conflict in Ukraine to spread to the Balkans, Biden "inflates" the Russian threat with such warnings

The possibility of the conflict in Ukraine spreading to other parts of Europe, including the Western Balkans, as recently discussed by US President Joe Biden, is not realistic, according to Vuk Vuksanovic, a senior researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy.

In an address at the White House, Biden stated that withholding aid to Ukraine could lead to changes in Europe and the Balkans. Vuksanovic, in his statement to Kosovo Online, notes that it is unclear whether the US president was referring to the Baltic or the Balkans. He points out that Biden, even in his younger days, was a politician "notorious for rhetorical gaffes, and over the years, as a result of his age, he sometimes confuses terms in his statements."

"Regardless of whether he meant the Baltic or the Balkans, or other parts of Europe he mentioned, such as Poland and Hungary, I don't see a real possibility of the conflict spreading. The Russian army has been struggling for two years to occupy Ukraine, so I don't see how they can have the capacity to go beyond that. Especially when we consider that the Balkans, including countries that are not NATO members, are covered by that security umbrella. I don't see what the real mechanism is based on which there could be some automatic repetition of war or any kind of security crisis," Vuksanovic emphasizes.

He highlights the context in which Biden made this statement, suggesting that it was likely in the service of internal political life in America.

"President Biden is primarily trying to overcome the opposition to further support for Ukraine by rhetorically 'inflating' the alleged Russian threat, given that there is an evident fatigue in both the domestic public and certain political entities in Washington and other Western capitals when it comes to this conflict," says Vuksanovic.

Asked about interpretations, such as the one expressed by the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, that Biden is "calling for war in the Balkans," Vuksanovic sees Dodik's stance primarily as a "reaction for the sake of reaction, primarily to justify himself to his voters and to show himself as a strong leader."

"I won't say that I am 100% comfortable regarding instability in the Balkans, whether in Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina, but I also have a moderately realistic view that it is a distant option for a full-scale war conflict to occur here," Vuksanovic states.

Regarding whether the US favors stability in the Balkans or not, our interlocutor points out that he is not sure if America can afford to open any new crises at a time when it is stretched in three major conflicts: the Ukrainian conflict, the Gaza conflict, and the intervention against Houthi rebels in Yemen.

"At a time when America is torn apart, when many are talking about the depletion of US weapon reserves, internal political crises, division in the US, especially in the context of the upcoming elections in November, I don't believe it is at all realistic to talk about such an engagement of Washington in the Balkans. On the contrary, I think it is in their interest to worry as little as possible about regions that are otherwise peripheral to US foreign policy," Vuksanovic is convinced.

Asked about how he interprets Washington's announcement of arming Kosovo with "Javelin" missiles and whether it can be linked to Biden's linking of the security situation in Ukraine and the Western Balkans, Vuksanovic says that the decision to deliver arms is multifaceted.

"On the one hand, it may be interpreted as a kind of political message from Washington to Belgrade: 'We cooperate with you, but be careful what you do.' It should also be noted that, for now, only the State Department has decided not to oppose the sale of 'Javelins' to Kosovo. The final decision on this is yet to be made in Congress. Also, in such a polarized and politically dysfunctional America, it is a question of how long congressional procedures can last. Even more importantly, even when the procedure in Congress is completed, the question is when this weaponry can be delivered, considering that the US has depleted significant strategic reserves of a whole range of its weapon systems through its support for Ukraine. 'Javelin' is a weapon system that is somewhere at the end, and it needs to be replenished," our interlocutor points out.

He adds that there are many uncertainties, but that there is no doubt there were multiple factors that certainly influenced those who gave the green light for the decision to deliver this weaponry to Kosovo.

"Anxiety about Ukraine partially contributed to that, the conflict in Banjska also partially contributed, and partially, the fact that the foreign policy elite in Washington is still somewhat divided on how to approach the ruling coalition in Belgrade, which some see as a potential problem and others as the only true partner in Belgrade," Vuksanovic concludes.