A year of uncertainty until the US elections

Writing for Kosovo Online: Dragan Bisenic

"Give War a Chance". That was the headline of an article written long ago by the renowned American expert on military strategy, Edward Luttwak. Luttwak began with the statement that war is a great evil, but even so, it can have great value—it can resolve political conflicts and lead to peace. Luttwak is an old, cynical strategist. The title actually originated from satire; it was a paraphrase of the book "Give War a Chance: Eyewitness Accounts of Mankind's Struggle Against Tyranny, Injustice, and Alcohol-Free Beer" by American writer and satirist Patrick O'Rourke from 1992. Sections in the book begin with reports on noise and end with his reports as a Rolling Stone reporter on the Gulf War. Luttwak's text was published in 1999 amid the NATO bombing in Serbia when war cries were heard from all sides, and it was not reasonable to talk about peace. NATO rejected the possibility of even a brief Easter ceasefire. Therefore, it was only logical to support the war because its inevitability was evident to those leading it. Today, we could do the same without much fear of being wrong.

Western strategic thinking is under the significant influence of the history of the Napoleonic Wars, which all ended quickly in an almost adventurous manner. European history, however, is full of a different kind of war symbolized by Prussian King Frederick the Great. "Friedrichshain" wars, unlike "Napoleonic" ones, are long-lasting and exhausting. The most famous of them is the "World War Zero" – the Seven Years' War, in which Frederick was the main protagonist. Lasting from 1756 to 1763, the war involved the entire known world at the time—from Great Britain, Austria, France, Russia, Sweden, and the Holy Roman Empire to the Ottoman Empire, making it a world war before the world wars.

Two years ago, there was one major war in Ukraine; now we have two major wars, neither of which, it seems, will end quickly. On the contrary, metastases of these conflicts are possible, taking unexpected forms. This is precisely the international environment that will influence the further shaping and efforts to resolve the Kosovo issue in the upcoming year. Among them, several events will likely play a more significant role than others.

Let's remind ourselves how thankless it is to predict the course of events, especially in the short term. An Arab proverb says there are two types of prophecy—cheap ones that talk about what will happen in a few months and years, and expensive ones that predict what will happen tomorrow. A year ago, the German ARD believed that it was time for a change of course in Serbia. "The establishment of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities is certain and has been achieved with enormous pressure from the EU and the US on Kurti. This is a success for a policy that should secure far-reaching rights and significant autonomy for Kosovo Serbs in the north and south of Kosovo", the German radio assessed. We see now that there was no certainty, especially regarding the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities. In fact, the issue of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities has been ongoing for years with no progress.

This year, NATO will mark 75 years of existence at almost the same location, in Washington, as it celebrated 50 years of existence 25 years ago, in the midst of bombing Serbia. NATO will be at war for this anniversary as well, but only a different one—a so-called "proxy" conflict with Russia in the Ukrainian wheat fields. This year's celebration, according to Harvard professor Steven Walt, will have "two shadows". The first is that the war in Ukraine probably won't go well, and that will be considered a failure of the alliance. The second dark cloud is the possible re-election of Donald Trump, who doubts the future of NATO and does not like it, nor does he like the European Union.

This year's celebration is actually correcting the neglect of the 70th anniversary of NATO that Donald Trump conducted during his term. There was no major gathering in Washington at that time, and there was no summit with the president. The anniversary was marked in the UK, and the NATO Secretary General delivered a speech in front of Congress.

Everything was different during the celebration of the 50th anniversary of NATO's founding. NATO marked its anniversary from April 23 to 25, 1999, with a spectacular celebration attended by 2,500 guests, with war cries echoing across the Balkans, along with the whistling of missiles and bombs. A few months earlier, the former US Ambassador to NATO, Robert Hunter, told me that the 50th anniversary was a suitable occasion for NATO to bomb Serbia if it did not behave in Kosovo as required.

A quarter of a century later, even though NATO is not the main driver of the dialogue, nor is it formally involved in it, it is clear that it plays the most important role in Kosovo. Now, for example, for this NATO jubilee, it might be excellent to announce that Kosovo is "de facto" independent and that it is possible to consider its participation in NATO and its programs, and even Kosovo's membership in the Alliance. This would dispel all the uncertainties and doubts that arose 25 years ago. The Kosovo Government announced two years ago that it would apply to participate in the Partnership for Peace, but that has not happened. The leadership of Kosovo assessed before this New Year that there was still "no will to accept Kosovo as a NATO member".

At the last summit in Vilnius, the Balkans were again at the top of NATO's agenda. During the November meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that the Western Balkans would be the topic of the jubilee summit. "We expect a summit next year in Washington to celebrate the 75th anniversary of NATO – not just to celebrate that anniversary but to continue to move the Alliance forward, including the commitments that its members make to our collective defense. We have a lot of work to do, as you said, also in the Western Balkans with our NATO partners from around the world, including the Asia-Pacific region. And of course, we'll talk about the crisis in Gaza and the broader Middle East", Blinken announced.

Closely related to these events are the upcoming US elections. Americans will almost certainly choose between the current President, Joe Biden, and former President Donald Trump. Regardless of which candidate is elected, the policy on key issues will change. Professor Volt, known for his interpretations of political events colored with strong independence and individualism, states that a new Biden term will largely be a continuity, where dramatic changes will not be evident.

"If Biden is re-elected, you will see the United States start negotiating much more directly to solve the war in Ukraine. They won't want to admit that Ukraine can't win before the elections, but after, I think they will be interested in making a deal", Volt believes.

It will be different if Trump wins. "If Trump is elected, the movement to distance ourselves from Ukraine and essentially force them to make any deal they can will be almost instantaneous. Europe is a region that should really be concerned. Trump doesn't have much love for the European Union. He thinks NATO may be outdated. If I were a European leader, I would start protecting myself from the possibility of Trump's presidency", Volt warns.

In this context, Kosovo will have an entirely new perspective. As President, Trump showed great ambition to solve the Kosovo issue in a compromise. In doing so, he included it in a much broader project of the "Abraham Accords", aimed at normalizing Israel's relations with Arab states. Within the framework of new relations with Europe, Trump would likely suspend the dialogue based on a plan that does not involve direct US participation and return it under direct US control.

However, not only that. Let's recall that the Biden administration completely abandoned the signed Washington Agreement that Belgrade and Pristina had already signed with the US during Trump's time. This indicates that signatures don't mean much if Washington doesn't want to recognize them. If he wins, Trump's revenge can be expected in the same measure, towards any document, even if it has been signed in the meantime. Therefore, the Kosovo issue remains uncertain until American voters decide who will lead America from 2025 onwards.