Will Bondsteel survive Trump?

Even before Americans expressed their will in the elections, discussions emerged in Western military circles about whether NATO could survive a second term of Donald Trump. Those focusing on this part of Europe naturally brought up Bondsteel, and some predictions suggested that this American base might be closed. Kosovo Online's interlocutors have differing views on this issue. While some believe the U.S. would not withdraw from a strategically important stronghold like the Balkans, others think it would be reasonable for American soldiers to hand Bondsteel over to Europeans.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Back in 2011, U.S. Ambassador to Pristina Christopher Dell stated that the American base near Urosevac would "soon be closed" due to high financial costs. At the time, Dell described the camp as a "heavy financial burden," noting that politicians shift priorities and focus on more pressing issues.

Thirteen years later, Bondsteel is still operational, and in 2022, during his visit to the U.S., Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti advocated for Bondsteel to be transformed into a permanent American military base.

Regarding Bondsteel’s fate, built in 1999, Columbia University professor David Phillips offers a different forecast.
“One of the first things Trump could do is reassess U.S. policy and security interests. I would expect the gradual closure of the American military base in Kosovo, Bondsteel,” Phillips said.

Military analyst Aleksandar Radic told Kosovo Online that it could be reasonable for Americans to question who should be stationed at Bondsteel—European or American forces.
"The Balkans are of interest to European countries, and it would be entirely rational to expect the Trump administration to say: 'This is primarily a European security interest. KFOR should remain fully operational, but it will be a European problem, not an American one.' This would mean no longer sending American reservists from Montana, Alaska, California, North and South Dakota..."

Radic emphasizes that KFOR's future is secured due to existing security risks. Still, it is rational to shift the burden to Europe. Traditionally, European countries with interests in the Balkans take on the KFOR leadership role.

"Currently, KFOR is commanded by an Italian general, preceded by Turkish and Hungarian generals, though mostly Italian ones," Radic noted.

He recalls that during KFOR's first decade, discussions began about its future role and the actual threat of armed conflict between forces led by Belgrade and Pristina. At that time, a plan was developed for a phased withdrawal of KFOR, aiming to transform it into a symbolically present force.
“Talks about Americans leaving Bondsteel also emerged during that period. The U.S. withdrew complex combat systems, heavy equipment, tanks, and helicopters. By the end of the decade, only a few M113 armored personnel carriers remained at Bondsteel. Currently, the Americans at Bondsteel have only light equipment and Black Hawk helicopters for transport and medical needs. Their presence is reduced to the National Guard, consisting of reservists funded by U.S. federal units, with rotations being routine,” Radic explained.

If Washington eventually decides it’s time for the Americans to leave, it would not result in radical changes beyond the symbolic absence of the U.S. flag, he added.
"Pristina values the American flag flying over Bondsteel, even though KFOR is fundamentally a NATO mission," Radic concluded.

Radic compared this situation to Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the full combat capacity of the SFOR mission was long ago renamed EUFOR.
“Traditional powers interested in the Balkans, like Austria, Hungary, and Romania, could take over. It wouldn't be surprising if Americans one day say, 'We’re leaving Bondsteel,’ and forces from Southeast Europe replace them,” he said.

Milos Pavkovic of the Center for European Policy believes the closure of Bondsteel and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Kosovo is unlikely.
“During Trump’s first term, preparations were made for the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Some draw parallels, suggesting a potential U.S. exit from Kosovo. However, I don’t think that will happen. The eastern flank of NATO remains critical to the U.S., and no administration is likely to make such a radical decision to close Bondsteel,” Pavkovic said.

Pavkovic suggested that the Trump administration might threaten withdrawal to pressure the current government in Pristina but added that it’s premature to expect such an outcome.

Political analyst Visar Imeri from Pristina also doubts that a new U.S. administration would close Bondsteel. However, he noted this would depend on President Trump’s overall policies.
Regarding the potential impact of Bondsteel's closure on the Kosovo Security Force (KSF), Imeri stated that the KSF has entered its second transformation phase toward becoming the Kosovo Army.
“The Kosovo Army was established during Trump’s first term when Haradinaj was Kosovo’s prime minister. The Trump administration emphasized defense spending, and this will likely affect Kosovo, which will be expected to allocate more for security forces,” Imeri explained.

Former high-ranking KFOR official and military advisor to UNMIK chief Joakim Rücker, Portuguese General Raul Cunha, stated that Trump aims to close many U.S. bases abroad for economic reasons.
“These bases consume enormous amounts of money, and he needs those funds for other purposes. Bondsteel is an important base, allowing U.S. troops to rotate from north to south Europe and station forces in a vital region,” Cunha told Kosovo Online.

Cunha dismissed criticisms of Trump as ignorant or irrational.
“He built an economic and financial empire. For him, business is business, and the matter of bases ties into that. The U.S. operates over 700 bases worldwide, all of which cost money he wants for domestic policies,” Cunha said.

Cunha concluded that Trump could exert significant pressure on Albin Kurti to focus on peace policies and halt provocations.
“Kurti represents the extreme left, which Trump does not favor,” Cunha said.