The American election fever and expectations of the Western Balkans: Kamala or Trump?

The Million Dollar Question: Kamala or Trump, the answer comes today. Americans are choosing their 47th president today, while the rest of the world awaits a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy. Analysts, from Tirana to Belgrade, highlight that election fever has also gripped the Western Balkans, with key expectations tied to a possible change in U.S. policy toward the region, particularly regarding Kosovo.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

Nearly half the planet has voted this year. Elections were held in 70 countries worldwide. However, the 60th U.S. presidential election has overshadowed even the election of Russia's new (or returning) president Vladimir Putin, as well as the composition of the new European Parliament and EU administration.

The race for the new president is between current U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and the 45th U.S. President Donald Trump.

Harris has held her position since 2021, while Trump served as president from 2017 to 2021.

For most of the world, this is a complicated electoral process. In brief, the new president will be the candidate who secures at least 270 out of a total of 538 electoral votes.

The inauguration of the 76th U.S. president is scheduled for January 1 of the following year, and the results are expected to be known by Wednesday.

If no candidate reaches the required majority, an "extended election" process occurs, where the president is chosen by a secret vote in the House of Representatives, with a simple rule: one state, one vote.

Current polls show both candidates are running neck-and-neck, and Vuk Velebit and Ivan Trifunovic from the Pupin Initiative suggest that the outcome could be decided by several voter groups, such as women or Midwest workers.

“Some believe women will be the key group, while others think workers in states like Pennsylvania or voters in Wisconsin are crucial. However, abortion has become one of the central issues in the campaign due to Trump's stance on the matter and Harris’s positions. That's why women, especially the younger demographic, are a very important factor. Additionally, many target groups have already largely decided whom to vote for. Younger and female voters usually support the Democrats, while men, whites, and conservative voters tend to back Trump. Unexpected shifts, such as Trump's appeal to the working class in the Midwest, could have a significant impact on the election, particularly in swing states,” Velebit explained.

Gino Mulici, a member of the Texas State Council, stated that the U.S. stance on Kosovo has not changed, but with Trump’s return, America would take the lead role as the main negotiator between Belgrade and Pristina.

“With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, America will take on the primary role in the negotiation dialogue,” Mulici said.

Fan Passions

Marko Miskeljin, an associate of the Center for Social Stability, stated that the U.S. presidential elections have divided the Western Balkans, with Pristina "putting all its cards" on the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's victory.

"Certainly, we could notice, as with everything in our region, that all U.S. elections are closely followed, and everyone picks a side and cheers passionately. We'll see who will be more satisfied after Tuesday. But what is certainly noticeable in our public is that Donald Trump and the Republican Party have much stronger support, while if we look at Croatia or Bosnia and Herzegovina, it's clear that the Democrats and Kamala have the upper hand. Of course, we’ve had instances where the Prime Minister of the temporary institutions in Pristina, Albin Kurti, not only attended the Convention but also took a photo with Kamala, trying to take a selfie, which clearly shows alignment with one of the sides. Definitely, as with many global events, even the U.S. elections couldn't pass without a little Balkan spice," Miskeljin said.

According to Miskeljin, a victory for Kamala Harris would signify a continuation of the current U.S. policy towards the region.

"For those rooting for Kamala Harris and the Democrats, the expectation is certainly a maintenance of the status quo—continuing the agreements, partnerships, and cooperation with Democratic administrations. If we look at the general sentiment in the Croatian public, it's quite evident that they've adopted practically the entire narrative from mainstream media. On the other hand, when it comes to impressions and expectations in Serbia, we can often be unrealistic in our hopes for Donald Trump," Miskeljin emphasized.

He also pointed out that Pristina has clearly aligned itself with Kamala Harris.

"When it comes to Pristina, it's clear that they have put all their cards on Kamala Harris's victory. This isn't surprising, given that during the Republican administration, we saw a much more neutral U.S. stance and a greater willingness to seek practical solutions on the ground. This primarily involved issues affecting the everyday lives of citizens, which were more in line with the agenda of Donald Trump and Richard Grenell when he was in charge of the matter," the analyst explained.

He added that citizens from the region living in the U.S. largely followed the policies of their home countries.

"When we look at the diaspora, both the Serbian and regional diasporas in the U.S., their actions and attitudes toward the candidates are most often shaped by how those candidates have treated their home countries. For example, we can observe that the majority of Serbs support Donald Trump, while, conversely, almost all Albanian lobbies and activists are actively participating in Kamala Harris's campaign," Miskeljin concluded.

A More Adequate Solution

On the other hand, Mazlum Baraliu, a university professor from Pristina, stated for Kosovo Online that public opinion in Kosovo is divided regarding the election of the new U.S. president, but he believes that electing Kamala Harris would be a more suitable solution than re-electing Donald Trump.

"Some are convinced that the Democrats will contribute more to democracy here, not only in Kosovo but in the Balkans and beyond. Others believe that the Republicans, led by Trump, will be more operational, more decisive... Public opinion in Kosovo is divided," Baraliu claims.

He says that it is completely uncertain what the policy of the new U.S. president will bring, regardless of who wins.

However, he views Trump as an atypical president who pursued a more "America-first policy" and, at the same time, believed that "everyone should mind their own business."

"I'm not inclined to predict what the election of either candidate will bring, knowing that Trump's administration was atypical, even, if you will, more 'America-first'—more isolationist than promoting and advancing democracy and safeguarding democratic values and principles globally. Trump thinks differently, that everyone should mind their own business. Because of this, I believe no one knows what policies, either Democratic or Republican, will bring from this election," the analyst explains.

On the other hand, he believes that Kamala Harris's election would be the most adequate solution.

"Considering that she was highly successful as a prosecutor in California, I think she has a strong sense of justice and democracy, given that she belongs to the Democratic Party, and also because she is a woman, which for me is an added value, without belittling anyone. Therefore, I think that for both America and the world, it might be the most suitable solution at this moment for her to win, but that depends on the American voters. We will see what happens, but whoever wins, I believe America will remain the main pillar of democracy," Baraliu concludes.

A Strange Approach

Tirana-based analyst Ben Andoni says that the U.S. presidential elections were overshadowed by political tensions in Albania, and that some opposition parties are hopeful that a Trump victory could lead to a change in the country's stance toward the opposition.

“The truth is that recent debates in the U.S., not just the confrontation between the two main candidates, Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris, were only partially followed, even though Albania has a large number of media outlets. This happened because the country's internal political tensions overshadowed the U.S. election situation,” Andoni told Kosovo Online.

He noted that both the ruling and opposition parties have a "strange approach" to the Democratic and Republican candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

“There is growing optimism among the Albanian opposition for Mr. Trump’s return to power, as they believe that Trump’s victory could influence the reversal of the decision against Mr. Berisha, who has been declared 'persona non grata' by the United States. The hope is that Trump will have a completely new policy regarding the opposition in Albania,” Andoni said.

On the other hand, the ruling party, led by Prime Minister Edi Rama, recently opened the possibility for the Trump family to invest in one of Albania's most beautiful tourist destinations.

He added that Albania and Serbia have relatively similar expectations regarding the election. “The approach in Kosovo is somewhat strange because there is a kind of skepticism about Mr. Trump’s victory due to the former president's commitment to a partial economic solution for Kosovo. This is also evident in Mr. Kurti’s recent actions, which are moving away from the spirit of dialogue,” Andoni concluded.

The Balkan 'Recipe'

Bojan Kordalov, a communications expert from Skopje, told Kosovo Online that the U.S. presidential election was rightly a major topic for the countries of the Western Balkans. However, despite the campaign resembling those seen in the region, it should not be forgotten that U.S. policy is based on continuity and that American goals and interests will not easily change, regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins.

"Everyone interested in politics followed the campaign, both in the region and beyond. Of course, it's the top issue, at least in terms of politics and expectations about where the world is headed. Many countries openly show, or at least their citizens do, which candidate they support. But I think it’s very important to remember that U.S. policy has its continuity and practices. No matter how much division or differences there are, and how much this campaign resembles Balkan campaigns, the U.S. has repeatedly shown that it has a plan, a strategy, and the ability to properly establish and lead joint foreign policies and pursue the interests that the U.S. has developed through consensus," Kordalov emphasized.

He also believes that the expectations of the diaspora of the countries of the Western Balkans do not differ much from the attitudes in their home countries.

"Everyone's expectations are based on their determination on the domestic political scene, but also on the general scene, regardless of whether it is left or right, in the center, i.e. conservative or some other ideology. However, I think that any smart diaspora in the process of representation will lobby for both sides, regardless of who wins, because the relationship of the Macedonian, Serbian, Albanian and any community in the United States must be committed and work with all administrations if he wants to to improve its status there, but especially putting the map of the Balkans and our countries high on the agenda of the US president", says Kordalov.

He points out that for the first time, citizens living in the USA understood very well the need to cooperate with any administration that is elected, which is why they refrained from openly supporting only one candidate.

"What we already see, unlike before, is that the diaspora works with all administrations, showing a little sympathy for one side or the other, but generally keeping the trend because when the referee blows his whistle at the end of the game, then we have to understand that we are all in one statesmanship approach, all we have our own roles, and that means that everyone should fight for a better life for citizens, and of course for their communities and their countries," concludes Kordalov.