Are parties preparing candidates to succeed Vjosa Osmani?

Who will head the next Government of Kosovo remains an unanswered question for the past seven months, and now another one follows: who will be the candidate for the President of Kosovo? Vjosa Osmani has not yet decided whether she will seek a second term, though analysts estimate that her chances of re-election are diminishing. Within the major parties, there are figures already “seen” as potential candidates for the presidency, Kosovo Online interlocutors note, but given the deep divisions among parties, some believe that a non-political figure might more easily secure the required two-thirds support in parliament.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Although it remains uncertain whether the parliamentary composition elected on February 9 will “survive” or whether new elections will be called, the question of the future president inevitably arises in party calculations about forming a new government.

The president must be elected no later than the first days of March, with at least 80 out of 120 MPs voting in favor. If no candidate is elected in three rounds, the parliament is dissolved, and new elections are called.

On the possibility of running again, Vjosa Osmani told reporters last week that she has not yet made a decision.

In the past ten days, her statements and positions have drawn sharp criticism from analysts in Pristina. They argue that her performance has fallen short of expectations, that she has not fulfilled the duties of the presidency, and that she is currently in an open alliance with Albin Kurti as her term comes to an end.

Marko Milenkovic of the NGO New Social Initiative assesses, however, that even though Osmani lately appears to be moving closer to Self-Determination with some of her statements and policies, it should not be expected that she will once again be the movement’s candidate for president.

He also pointed out that the Assembly must be functional for Kosovo to elect a new president—which is currently not the case—and that political parties will likely bargain over this post, dividing roles among themselves.

“Only in that way do I see us reaching a position to choose a president, if current trends in votes and popularity continue. What we know so far is that, for example, if Self-Determination selects the president while Albin Kurti remains prime minister, then that office will once again not carry much weight, just as it was during Vjosa Osmani’s term. All focus was on Kurti, who made the key decisions, while Osmani had a more ceremonial role with little real influence in political or institutional matters,” Milenkovic told Kosovo Online.

If Self-Determination does put forward a presidential candidate, Stefan Surlic, assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade, suggests that this time their nominee could be Donika Gërvalla, in whom Kurti is said to have great trust.

“Given her international standing, language skills, and already established role as foreign minister, she could hypothetically be a strong candidate,” Surlic noted.
If the opposition parties form part of the ruling majority, Lumir Abdixhiku, leader of the Democratic

League of Kosovo (LDK), would be, in Surlic’s view, an ideal candidate for president.

“Despite all criticisms, he has cultivated an image as the LDK leader, someone from the academic community with a calm and balanced demeanor,” he explained.

Should the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) join as a junior coalition partner, their candidate could be party leader Memli Krasniqi, according to Surlic. However, he cautioned that it is difficult to point to a figure within the parties who is both a likely presidential nominee and internationally established.

“I think, in the end, party bargaining will decide who gets the post—dividing the political pie between the premiership and the presidency. Then the parties will weigh internally which individual meets at least the minimum standards and criteria for such an important position, which is at least nominally unifying and must secure a significant share of votes, likely including those of the opposition,” Surlic emphasized.
Pristina-based analyst Alma Lama takes a different view, thinking outside the usual framework.
Since no political figure currently has the necessary two-thirds majority in parliament required by the Constitution, she told Kosovo Online that in the current climate of deep political division, someone from outside politics might be able to bring the parties together and be elected president.

“We still have a few months until the president’s mandate expires. The solution could be a non-political figure who might unite the parties, though I’m not very optimistic given the current divisions. New elections might be an option, but they too won’t deliver a two-thirds majority on one side to elect a president. Consensus will always be necessary,” Lama observed.

As a reminder, Vjosa Osmani, the Self-Determination candidate, was elected president in the Kosovo Assembly on April 4, 2021. Her opponent was Nasuf Bejta, also from Self-Determination, but neither secured the required 80 votes in the first two rounds.
Since in the third round only a majority of MPs present is needed, Osmani was elected president with 71 votes.