A difficult challenge ahead of Osmani: Can diaspora votes shift to the LDK?

The diaspora is often referred to as the “fifth pillar” of Kosovo’s democracy, and its votes in previous elections determined the composition of the government and future political directions. However, ahead of the upcoming elections, former Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani, who has returned to the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), faces a serious challenge: how to regain the trust of hundreds of thousands of citizens living abroad amid a changed political climate and internal political turmoil. Will Osmani’s charisma and previous record be enough to overcome increasingly vocal criticism, or will the diaspora once again direct its votes toward Self-Determination and its leader Albin Kurti? Analysts interviewed by Kosovo Online agree that this will be an extremely difficult task.

Written by: Milena Miladinovic

The significance of the diaspora’s influence in elections is reflected in the fact that, during the voter registration period for citizens living abroad, all major political leaders — from Bedri Hamza and Ramush Haradinaj to Albin Kurti — called on this electorate to register and “contribute to Kosovo’s democracy.”
Following Vjosa Osmani’s high-profile return to the Democratic League of Kosovo, the party, as well as Osmani herself, also urged the diaspora to register. During her presidential mandate, Osmani devoted considerable attention to the diaspora, describing it as “Kosovo’s mirror to the world.”

Responding to earlier criticism from the opposition regarding the decision to hold elections on December 28, Osmani stated that it was her duty as president to select a date that would guarantee greater, not lower, voter turnout.

She reiterated similar messages this month, recalling that when the December election date was first determined, she had stressed that Kosovo would be stronger the closer the diaspora was to every decision-making process — this time, however, in a different capacity, as a member of the LDK and the party’s presidential candidate.

The number of diaspora votes in the December elections reached nearly 60,000, or 6.32 percent, excluding those who physically voted at polling stations in Kosovo. Given that the elections were held during the period when the diaspora traditionally returns to Kosovo in large numbers, political observers assessed that the diaspora effectively determined the future of the citizens living in Kosovo.

In that electoral process, the overwhelming majority of diaspora votes went to Self-Determination and its leader, caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti. According to Kosovo Online’s interlocutors, Osmani and the LDK’s goal of taking over the diaspora vote in the June 7 elections is an extremely difficult, almost impossible task, as Kurti enjoys strong support among the diaspora, which largely aligns with his ideology.

Diaspora’s Role Will Not Be Decisive

Miloš Pavkovic, Director of Strategy at the Belgrade-based Centre for European Policies, told Kosovo Online that two important developments are currently at play. The first is Vjosa Osmani’s return under the umbrella of the LDK, which, he says, creates a stronger synergistic effect, and the second concerns the diaspora — specifically whether the LDK can now attract diaspora voters who have traditionally supported Self-Determination.

According to Pavkovic, this will be a very difficult task for two reasons.

“The first reason is that Vjosa Osmani has established diplomatic connections and contacts abroad, particularly in the United States, whereas the electorate that participates in voting is primarily dispersed across Europe — Austria, Switzerland, Germany, and other European countries,” Pavkovic explained.

As the second reason, he highlighted the fact that the diaspora’s role in these elections will not be as decisive because of the timing of the vote.

“Perhaps in these elections the diaspora will not play as decisive a role as it did in the December elections. These elections are being held in early June, while voters from the diaspora traditionally return for summer holidays somewhat later, at the end of June or the beginning of July. In that sense, the diaspora electorate will be smaller than it was in December, but even that reduced electorate will remain very firm and difficult for Vjosa Osmani to approach, and it remains highly uncertain whether she will have enough influence to take over that segment of voters,” Pavkovic concluded.

Diaspora Votes Will Not Automatically Transfer to Osmani

Abit Hoxha, Assistant Professor at the University of Agder, told Kosovo Online that the diaspora votes previously won by Vjosa Osmani would not automatically shift to her in the upcoming June 7 elections.

“I do not believe that the votes Vjosa Osmani previously received from the diaspora will automatically transfer to her this time because of the structural support that Self-Determination has among its voters and through the network of structural support it has built both in Europe and in Kosovo,” Hoxha stated.
According to him, election campaigns in Kosovo are essentially games of mutual blame among political parties over who has done less, rather than debates over who will do more.

“I do not expect this campaign to differ from previous ones. It is a blame game driven by inflammatory rhetoric and accusations rather than projects, policy documents, and plans for the future,” Hoxha added.
In his view, the outcome of the June 7 elections will not differ substantially from the December elections.

He added that even if Kurti and Self-Determination secure a stronger result than before — for example, more than 51 percent — cooperation with other parties would still be necessary.

“I think we will see the same results. Even if Kurti were to win, say, 55 percent, what could he do with 55 percent that he could not do with 51 percent? Even with 55 percent, cooperation remains necessary. Kosovo was designed as a civic state based on political consensus; it was not designed to function with one-party institutions. Therefore, Kurti will not be able to do much even with 55 or 60 percent because Kosovo’s institutions require cooperation with other political parties. Any decisions awaiting Kurti — such as the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities, the dialogue process, or other key issues — will require a broader decision-making base, not decisions made solely by one political party. He will need the LDK, the PDK, the AAK, and probably Serbian political parties as well,” Hoxha concluded.

“Kurti Created Osmani”

Political analyst from Tirana Frok Çupi told Kosovo Online that former Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani was politically “created” by caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti and that her return to the Democratic League of Kosovo does not mean diaspora votes in the snap parliamentary elections will shift to that party.

According to him, Osmani has no independent political influence in Kosovo and all of her activities were under Kurti’s control, which is why the distribution of diaspora votes is unlikely to change in the June 7 elections.

“Vjosa Osmani has no real influence in Kosovo. Osmani was created by Albin Kurti; she is Albin Kurti’s political ‘baby.’ All of her activities were under Kurti’s control,” Çupi said.

Çupi believes the election results will be the same as in December and that the post-election situation will also remain unchanged.

“If parties such as the Democratic Party of Kosovo and the Democratic League of Kosovo do not enter into a coalition with Kurti, Kosovo still will not have a president,” Çupi emphasized.
Diaspora Traditionally Votes for Kurti

Political analyst from Skopje Lulzim Farizi stressed that diaspora votes in the upcoming June 7 elections will once again go to Albin Kurti and his Self-Determination movement.

Farizi told Kosovo Online that two elements of Kosovo’s Constitution are problematic — the election of the president of Kosovo and the election of the speaker of parliament — which, in his assessment, means Kosovo will continue to experience political turbulence.

He assessed that Osmani’s influence in recent years had been limited, while over the past two years the policies of Kurti and Osmani have not been aligned, especially regarding Kosovo’s foreign policy.

“Osmani tried, in a way, to oppose him, especially through diplomatic channels, by appearing alongside Trump, and that sent a message to the diaspora that she was the most influential person in the country who wanted to build alliances with the United States. However, given that for the last ten years the diaspora has traditionally voted for Kurti rather than for other ideologies, I believe the diaspora will vote for Osmani only minimally, except for supporters of the Democratic League active in Europe,” Farizi said.

He emphasized that Kurti’s influence among the diaspora is substantial and that the diaspora supports his ideology.

“The diaspora will not significantly influence Vjosa Osmani’s result because approximately 90 percent of the diaspora will vote for Kurti. He is currently the most influential and best organized figure within the diaspora, which supports his ideology, his political party, and him as an unrivaled leader at this moment,” Farizi concluded.