Diplomatic Maneuver or a "Poke in the Eye" to Belgrade: Can Montenegro Reach the EU Faster via Kosovo?

The statement by Montenegro's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ervin Ibrahimovic that one of the country's foreign policy priorities is Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe has triggered a sharp response from Belgrade. For some, it is a skillful maneuver by Podgorica to accelerate its path to the European Union, while for others it is a "poke in the eye" – a clear provocation and an unnecessary disruption of relations with Serbia.

Written by: Djordje Barovic

In the year that marks five years since the fall of Milo Djukanovic's regime, under which Montenegro was among the first to recognize Kosovo in 2008, Foreign Minister Ervin Ibrahimovic has raised an issue not currently on the Council of Europe's agenda.

"Montenegro is recognized by international partners as a country that fosters good neighborly relations. Therefore, we will support our friendly state, Kosovo, because it is a foreign policy priority that we become the next EU member, and this does not conflict with that path," said Ibrahimovic, who is also the leader of the Bosniak Party.

Kosovo submitted its application for membership in the Council of Europe in May 2022. By April the following year, the Committee of Ministers decided to forward the application to the Parliamentary Assembly for opinion.

This body supported Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe in April of last year and called on the Committee of Ministers to make such a decision.

During that vote, each of the three Montenegrin MPs voted differently.

Boris Mugoša of the Social Democrats voted in favor, Maja Vukicevic of the Democratic People's Party voted against, while Vasilije Carapic of the "Europe Now" Movement abstained but supported Italy's amendment that required prior fulfillment of conditions related to the Community of Serb Municipalities before Kosovo's admission.

Since then, the issue of Kosovo's membership has not been on the Committee of Ministers' agenda.

Moreover, at the end of May, during the Political Committee session of the PACE in Crete, there was no proposal on the agenda to upgrade Kosovo's status from "other delegation" to "special guest."

Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset at the time presented the clear conditions that must be met for membership in this international organization.

"To become part of the Council of Europe, several criteria must be fulfilled. One requirement is to become a member of the European Convention on Human Rights, to recognize the European Court of Human Rights – the Council's most important body – and to implement all decisions of the Convention," he told Klan Kosova.

Unlike Berset, Montenegro's Foreign Minister, speaking about the country's foreign policy priorities, did not set any additional conditions for Pristina.

"A Bolt from the Blue"

Commentator and publicist from Montenegro Perica Djakovic told Kosovo Online that this statement came "like a bolt from the blue."

"It caused a lot of confusion because it came out of nowhere. No one understands where Ibrahimovic got the idea if he hadn't consulted with government representatives and if the government doesn't stand behind it. No one from the government has said that he had the mandate to make such a statement publicly," Djakovic emphasized.

He noted that Ibrahimovic's statement caused surprise and various comments within the government and the ruling coalition in Montenegro.

"(Filip) Ivanovic, Deputy Prime Minister for Foreign Affairs, said that Ibrahimovic raised the issue unnecessarily and questioned with whom he had consulted. Even Prime Minister Milojko Spajic was surprised. But the question remains whether he was as surprised as he was when Ibrahimovic appointed (Ranko) Krivokapic, former SDP leader, as his advisor," Djakovic said.

He added that the most direct reaction came from Speaker of Parliament Andrija Mandic, who stated that Ibrahimovic's statement violated the coalition agreement of the parliamentary majority.

"URA stated that this speaks more to the internal divisions within the Montenegrin government than to any official foreign policy position. In any case, this will certainly continue to be debated," the commentator believes.

When asked why the Montenegrin Foreign Ministry needed to emphasize support for Kosovo's Council of Europe membership as a priority, Djakovic said, "No one really knows."

"I think it's primarily Ibrahimovic's personal stance, along with that of certain Albanian parties that have their own views on Kosovo. I'm sure that Milojko Spajic and the government would avoid making such direct statements. Spajic isn't playing 'hot and cold' right now, but Ibrahimovic rushed out with this position. I think the issue also ties into his chosen advisor, Krivokapic, who allegedly no one knew had been appointed, but I believe those who needed to know were informed because he had been on the government payroll for several months," Djakovic said.

He warned that the statement could worsen regional relations, particularly between Podgorica and Belgrade.

"This could damage interstate relations, especially between Serbia and Montenegro, which had begun to thaw. However, we saw a sharp response from Belgrade to Ibrahimovic's statement. Still, I think there will be attempts to smooth things over, because for Montenegro, there's no one more important than Serbia – not only in tourism, but also in a brotherly sense. But this Montenegrin government is so fragmented, with so many ministers, that meetings are often held over Zoom, and attendance is low. Even the Prime Minister has avoided parliament for two months," Djakovic explained.

He emphasized that the political situation in Montenegro is becoming increasingly complex and expects it to remain so until the end of August, when the summer parliamentary session concludes.

"The Montenegrin government is so heterogeneous that few actually follow the coalition agreement that was signed. As you've seen, Ibrahimovic is using his ministry to accommodate his party members and in a way privatizing it," Djakovic concluded.

Undermining Sovereignty

Head of Serbia's delegation to the Council of Europe Biljana Pantic Pilja believes that Ibrahimovic's remarks are "dangerous statements that undermine Serbia's sovereignty" and called on Podgorica to help protect the Serbian community in Kosovo by insisting on the implementation of the Brussels Agreement.

"That statement is dangerous because it undermines the sovereignty of a state, and that state is Serbia. If they want good regional cooperation, they should refrain from such statements, because we respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of every country in the world, and we expect the same in return," Pantic Pilja told Kosovo Online.

She emphasized that although Kosovo's Council of Europe membership is not currently on the agenda, such statements from Montenegro are not helpful.

"Primarily because we are a friendly country, and Serbia is committed to dialogue and cooperation, especially regional cooperation. I don't believe this reflects the stance of the entire Montenegrin government, or certainly not its people," she stressed.

Asked what might have motivated Montenegro's foreign minister to make such a statement, Pantic Pilja said that some individuals always want "to be more Catholic than the Pope."

"I truly believe these kinds of dangerous statements are not good for our future cooperation or the survival of regional cooperation. Montenegro, as a sovereign state, should respect international law, which is clear and unequivocal," said Pantic Pilja.

She reminded that UN Security Council Resolution 1244 is still in force and that the Brussels Agreement was signed under EU auspices.

"I would kindly urge the Government of Montenegro to focus on implementing the Brussels Agreement, where we have been waiting for the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities for 12 years now," Pantic Pilja said.

She explained that Pristina's failure to fulfill its obligations is the key reason why countries that support Kosovo's independence have halted its bid for Council of Europe membership.

"Even Kurti's greatest allies have realized there's no dialogue with him," she pointed out.

She emphasized that the Council of Europe is an organization focused on human rights and should therefore do more to protect the rights of the Serbian community in Kosovo.

"That's what we constantly emphasize in the Council of Europe. Because Kurti's regime is subtly working to create an exodus of the Serbian national minority from Kosovo and Metohija. I call on Montenegro and its authorities, as a Council of Europe member, to help safeguard the rights of the Serbian national minority in Kosovo and Metohija," said Biljana Pantic Pilja.

Constructive Approach

On the other hand, professor of European law from Pristina Avni Mazreku believes Montenegro's support for Kosovo's Council of Europe membership should be viewed as a constructive approach toward its neighbors and its key foreign policy goal – joining the EU.

"I think that Montenegro, in its relations with neighbors – not only with Kosovo – has generally taken a constructive approach. This serves its goal of becoming an EU member. Opening new negotiation chapters with the EU entails closer and more constructive neighborly relations," Mazreku told Kosovo Online.

He recalled that Montenegro's high level of constructiveness toward Kosovo is evident not only in its early recognition of independence but also in its support for Kosovo's membership in international and regional organizations.

Commenting on the Foreign Ministry's move to make Kosovo's Council of Europe accession one of Montenegro's foreign policy priorities, Mazreku said that support should also be viewed through the lens of human rights, especially minority rights.

"Support for Kosovo joining international organizations like the Council of Europe is also tied to human rights issues. In this context, any concerns Montenegro might have about the Montenegrin minority in Kosovo should be addressed within Kosovo's Council of Europe membership framework, not outside of it," Mazreku argued.

He reminded that the Council of Europe was founded in 1949 and is essentially a counterpart to the United Nations.

"So when we talk about Montenegro supporting Kosovo's Council of Europe membership, that means supporting improvements to the position of the Montenegrin minority in Kosovo, not the opposite. Therefore, generally speaking, Montenegro has maintained a consistently constructive stance toward Kosovo," Mazreku concluded.

A "Poke in the Eye" and the Consequences

Historian Bogdan Zivkovic does not share this view. He claims that Ibrahimovic's statement is a "poke in the eye" to Serbia.

"These statements, we could say, have a devastating potential for regional relations. This is not only about Ervin Ibrahimovic but about an entire segment of Montenegrin political society that sees Montenegro's sovereignty solely as independence from Serbia. These are not people who believe that Montenegrin citizens should make decisions about their own future, including relations with the secessionist authorities in Pristina, but people who think Montenegro's independence is proven by poking Serbia in the eye," Zivkovic told Kosovo Online.

He added that Serbia's Foreign Ministry reacted in a measured way.

"It tried to deescalate the situation, but we see that Ibrahimovic responded with an even harsher and stronger statement. If he and parts of Montenegrin society don't change their perception of relations with Serbia, where legitimate aspirations for sovereignty would be accompanied by goodwill for neighborly ties, we will continue spinning in this vicious circle," Zivkovic emphasized.

He believes that Ibrahimovic is "nonetheless isolated within the Montenegrin government" and that most would not follow such a policy.

He clarified that this is not "the position of the entire Montenegrin government or public, but of one man" – the leader of the Bosniak Party.

"As we all recall, he was one of Milo Djukanovic's satellite leaders. He is a particular individual who, within this heterogeneous Montenegrin government, leads the Foreign Ministry and is trying to push some of his own particular interests," said Zivkovic.

The historian believes Ibrahimovic justifies this with "Montenegro's European path."

"This has absolutely nothing to do with Kosovo's accession to the Council of Europe," Zivkovic clarified.

He added that the current foreign minister is known for "anti-Serbian positions."

"He wants to push for Kosovo's independence as something he ideologically believes in," Zivkovic stated.

Although he said such statements should not be "dramatized," he noted that it remains to be seen how Montenegro's government, its Serbian parties, and PM Milojko Spajic will react.

"And even the absence of a reaction is a kind of reaction. On one hand, Spajic leads a very heterogeneous coalition. He knows this is a move that the Serbian parties, whose support the government depends on, cannot stand behind, and they are probably looking for some compromise solutions," said Zivkovic.

Recalling that the Bosniak Party violated all agreements made when forming the current Montenegrin government, he is convinced that Ibrahimovic will remain "stubborn," which could lead to a new institutional crisis.

"We can expect that Ibrahimovic, consistent with his politics, will persist in this intent, and that will certainly provoke another crisis in Montenegro's already unstable government," Zivkovic concluded.