Elections in Kosovo 2025: Can the Opposition Challenge Kurti?

Today marks the deadline for party registration for the February 9 elections in Kosovo. Despite the opposition's claims that Kurti’s “time is up” due to poor economic and political decisions, surveys suggest the results will not significantly alter the political landscape. Analysts explain to Kosovo Online that the opposition currently lacks both a leader and a coherent policy to challenge the Self-Determination Movement (Vetëvendosje) leader. They add that Kurti’s confrontations with the West could be a persuasive argument for voters, potentially leading to surprises in the elections.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

The Central Election Commission concludes the process of registering parties for the elections scheduled for February 9 next year.

Apart from Albin Kurti’s Self-Determination Movement, the main contenders for parliamentary seats and forming the new government are Lumir Abdixhiku’s Democratic League of Kosovo, Memli Krasniqi’s Democratic Party of Kosovo, and Ramush Haradinaj’s Alliance for the Future of Kosovo.

Based on pre-election promises, the opposition offers Kosovo a “rebirth,” while the Self-Determination Movement promises continuity.

“Something doesn’t add up,” says political analyst Visar Xhani, accusing the opposition.

“We have an opposition that has been ‘flat-footed’ when dealing with the majority. Even when it had the opportunity to debate or criticize the government on sensitive processes, it has shown a tendency to calculate, particularly in foreign policy matters and the dialogue process,” Xhani explains.

The Challenge Game

Miloš Pavkovic, an associate of the Center for European Policy, identifies the lack of leadership as a key issue for the opposition. He notes that Kurti’s use of nationalist rhetoric effectively blocks opponents from focusing on key economic issues.

“When we talk about Vetëvendosje’s rivals, such as the Democratic Party of Kosovo and the Democratic League of Kosovo, they lack leaders capable of truly challenging Kurti,” Pavkovic tells Kosovo Online.

He believes the main question is whether Self-Determination will secure an outright majority or if a drop in ratings will force Kurti to include opposition parties or representatives of the Serbian community in the government.

“The primary battle seems to be whether Vetëvendosje will form the government independently. It appears unlikely that Vetëvendosje will lose power entirely,” Pavkovic states.

He emphasizes that Kurti’s focus on nationalism ties the opposition’s hands.

“The opposition is in a difficult position because Kurti uses nationalism and unilateral moves to maintain focus on his agenda, leaving the opposition to play on his terms,” Pavkovic explains.

He sees potential for the opposition in focusing on Kosovo’s economic situation and high emigration rates but notes these issues are overshadowed by Kurti’s focus on northern Kosovo tensions.

Chances for the Opposition

Law and international relations professor Afrim Hoti sees a potential advantage for the opposition in the declining international support for Kurti’s government.

“The situation is complicated because ruling parties still enjoy voter support. However, from an international perspective, it seems these parties have lost some backing, which could create new dynamics in the upcoming elections,” Hoti tells Kosovo Online.

He doubts the results will mirror the record-breaking success of Vetëvendosje four years ago, suggesting a more balanced outcome among the main parties.

“I expect a balance between three or four main political parties, but I don’t foresee results like those from four years ago,” Hoti emphasizes.

Unfair Competition

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic argues that the opposition’s challenges stem not only from voter dissatisfaction but also from Kurti’s populism, which he describes as “unfair competition.”

“Populism in politics always brings unrealistic promises that people want to hear. Kurti benefits from voter disappointment in other parties, such as the Democratic League of Kosovo and the Democratic Party of Kosovo, which failed to meet citizens’ expectations in the post-war period,” Gogic explains.

He also highlights Kurti’s radical nationalism as a major factor strengthening his position.

“This drives voter cohesion, especially during crises orchestrated by Kurti in northern Kosovo. It creates a difficult environment for the opposition, as criticizing Kurti risks being labeled as sympathetic to Serbia,” Gogic explains.

He notes that the opposition has undergone leadership changes, with some Democratic Party of Kosovo leaders facing trials in The Hague.

“At the national level, they have not found leaders to rally behind, leaving Kurti without a serious rival,” Gogic adds.

He considers the Democratic League of Kosovo a potential threat to Vetëvendosje due to overlapping voter bases but suggests it’s unlikely to fully challenge Kurti.

Kurti’s Optimism

Ivan Nikolic, director of the NGO “Communication for Social Development” (CSD), believes Kurti has reasons for optimism, citing his achievements on issues important to his voters, especially regarding relations with the Serbian community.

“He has addressed voter concerns by initiating actions in the north, enforcing restrictions on Serbian imports, and detaining numerous Serbs, which resonates with his base,” Nikolic concludes.

The issue of combating corruption, Nikolic believes, remains unresolved.

"Kurti's entire narrative about corruption has not been properly implemented, as I think he has realized that some things are incredibly difficult to eradicate in Kosovo. There have even been cases where some of 'his own people' were involved in similar stories," Nikolic explains.

At this moment, he finds it very difficult to speculate about potential coalitions within the opposition bloc.

"It is extremely difficult to speculate on who might form a coalition against Kurti, whether that is even feasible, and whether he will manage to secure more than 50 percent of the vote. One thing is certain: he will have an absolute majority compared to others because he has managed to achieve some of his promises and goals to a significant extent," Nikolic states.

When asked which opposition party might profit in the elections, Nikolic highlights the Democratic League of Kosovo (DLK) led by Lumir Abdixhiku, who is also the party's candidate for prime minister, and the leader of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Ramush Haradinaj.

"The fact is that the opposition has plenty of arguments against Kurti's government, but at the end of the day, how they will unite and whether a potential leader might emerge is extremely hard to predict. DLK has a young, ambitious candidate who has gained some favor with the international community and a segment of voters who do not hold radical right-wing views on the overall situation in Kosovo. On the other hand, we have Haradinaj, who has been repeating the same narrative since he entered politics—that he is a superhero and that Kurti was not directly involved in the war unlike him. In this way, he might attract a certain number of followers," Nikolic emphasizes.

The departures of Self-Determination Movement MPs ahead of the elections are seen as evidence that "all is not well" within the movement.

"The fact that they left the party indicates that even in that 'perfect environment' within their party, things are not exactly rosy, and that there are serious interest groups where ideology is not the primary driving force. This is a fact, no matter how much Kurti and his entire team claim otherwise. How this will reflect in the elections is something we won't know until just before the elections," Nikolic concludes.