Gogic: The position of the opposition in Kosovo is not simple, Kurti rules with populism

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic has assessed that the position of the opposition in Kosovo is not simple and that the reasons should not be sought solely in voter disappointment with these parties. He points out the fact that Albin Kurti, the leader of the Self-Determination Movement, employs populism, which is always associated with the concept of "unfair competition" in political life.

"In general, the position of the opposition in Kosovo is not simple because Kurti uses populism. When you have populism in political life, it is always a form of unfair competition because it brings forth easily made promises that sound appealing and that citizens believe and want to hear. Furthermore, Kurti has benefited from the disappointment that exists in Kosovo with other parties, such as the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) and the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK). They have not met the expectations of Kosovo's citizens in the post-war period," Gogic said for Kosovo Online.

As a third significant factor contributing to Albin Kurti's lack of a worthy rival on the political scene, Gogic points to his radical nationalism.

"This works in his favor because, by definition, it leads to voter homogenization and strengthening of social cohesion. All these crises he orchestrates, for instance in northern Kosovo, ultimately result in that homogenization and cohesion, making the opposition's position genuinely challenging. If you criticize Kurti's policies, you risk being labeled as lenient toward Serbs and Serbia. The opposition has never been able to find the right response to the actions he takes," Gogic emphasized.

On the other hand, he noted that opposition parties have undergone certain personnel changes in recent periods, with some PDK leaders facing trials in The Hague.

"They have not succeeded in identifying figures at the national level who can lead and garner voter support. They have managed to strike a balance at the local level but not yet nationally. As such, for Kurti in these elections, victory is almost guaranteed," Gogic opined.

He expresses confidence that Self-Determination will win the majority of votes decisively, identifying the Democratic League of Kosovo as the greatest threat to Kurti's party.

"We can't call them rivals, but perhaps the most serious threat to the Self-Determination is the Democratic League of Kosovo. This is because it is the only party that partially shares the electorate with the Self-Determination. Some Self-Determination supporters are actually disillusioned former LDK supporters who switched to the Self-Determination. Thus, there is always a question of whether and to what extent the LDK can reclaim its voters. That is the real threat to the Self-Determination," Gogic said.

He supports this claim by noting that the LDK managed to regain some of its voter base in the 2021 local elections.

"They can only reduce the support that the Self-Determination enjoys," he clarified.

On the other hand, he says, the Democratic Party of Kosovo remains Self-Determination's strongest opponent.

"That is Thaci's party, and Thaci is arguably the most significant individual rival to Kurti in Kosovo's political life. However, Thaci is not in Kosovo as he is on trial for war crimes. There is animosity between the PDK and the Self-Determination, and they have perhaps been the main bearers of political polarization, but the PDK does not threaten the Self-Determination's voter base," Gogic argued.

Asked how departures from the Self-Determination might impact its results, this analyst said it had not caused significant damage because Kurti's personal approval rating far surpassed that of his party.

Commenting on Haki Abazi's departure, Gogic describes him as "the most prominent name" to have left the Self-Determination.

However, Gogic sees a problem in the fact that Abazi joined the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), led by Ramush Haradinaj, who might enter into a post-election coalition with Kurti if needed.

"Haki Abazi is quite sharp in his criticisms of Kurti, but the party he joined, led by Ramush Haradinaj, the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, is not entirely principled. So even if Haradinaj voices certain accusations, he is inclined to make compromises, or even reversals. It is conceivable that he could fiercely criticize Kurti during the campaign, only to enter a post-election coalition with him if Kurti needs it," Gogic concluded.