Electoral domination of Self-Determination outside Kosovo: Why does the diaspora trust Kurti the most?

The Self-Determination Movement did not achieve its pre-election goal of securing half a million votes. However, contrary to the saying "out of sight, out of mind," this time, votes from the diaspora could be the decisive factor in enabling the party to once again form a government independently. Analysts remind that five years ago, this party also received the most support from outside Kosovo, attributing this trend to Albin Kurti's populist, ethno-nationalist rhetoric, which has now culminated in actions taken by Pristina authorities in the north before and during the election campaign.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

The vote count is complete, and analysts believe that Self-Determination could form a new government precisely thanks to votes from the diaspora.

According to this calculation, if it turns out that the party received at least 80% of all diaspora votes, this would translate into an additional five parliamentary seats, allowing them to form a government once again without entering into coalitions.

In the February elections, leading opposition parties, primarily LDK and AAK, also counted on diaspora votes, organizing rallies in major European cities with clear messages that Kosovo can move forward only if Self-Determination moves into the opposition.

Voters, however, seem to think otherwise.

Nol Nushi from the Social Democratic Party claims that Albin Kurti attracted the most diaspora votes due to his nationalist rhetoric and the fact that the diaspora predominantly gets its information from television.

"What they often see is only what is shown on television, and whoever wins the TV propaganda war also wins the votes," Nushi said.

According to Kosovo Online sources, the "patriotic rhetoric" is a proven formula for gaining votes in the diaspora.

Voting “for the Government”

Zoran Savic, an associate of the NGO Aktiv, told Kosovo Online that the diaspora from the Western Balkans almost always votes for the ruling parties in elections and that, among Albanians from Kosovo living abroad, Self-Determination's ethno-nationalist narrative prevailed during the election campaign.

"It doesn’t surprise me that the diaspora votes—especially for the ruling party—because if we look at electoral processes across the Western Balkans, it has almost become the norm that in about 98% of cases, the diaspora votes for the parties in power. The reason for this could be the way information is presented in the countries where Kosovo citizens live and how they receive their news," Savic explained.

He emphasizes that all other Albanian parties also addressed the diaspora during the election campaign, but only the Self-Determination Movement and Albin Kurti started their campaign long before the official campaign period began.

"Self-Determination conducted its campaign two years before the official start of the pre-election campaign. Their entire focus was on the north, presenting it as having 'conquered the north' and expanded Kosovo’s sovereignty. This message was received by the diaspora. I really don’t know how much the diaspora is engaged with Kosovo’s internal political issues, so I believe that, unfortunately, populism once again prevailed among diaspora voters," Savic said.

He is convinced that Self-Determination secured most of its diaspora votes thanks to its pre-election ethno-nationalist narrative. However, he also questions whether citizens living abroad were properly informed about the full range of political options available.

For this reason, he shares Nushi’s view that "whoever wins the television propaganda war also wins the votes."

"Everything depends on how the diaspora gets its information—whether it relies solely on television content—and it also depends on the age group of this population. So I agree with that opinion. In previous election processes in the Western Balkans, unfortunately, the populist narrative has always prevailed," Savic concluded.

Kurti’s “Symbolism”

Belgzim Kamberi, an associate at the "Musine Kokalari" Institute, believes that the Albanian diaspora from Kosovo overwhelmingly supports Albin Kurti because they are convinced he will restore order and justice in Kosovo.

Recalling that Kurti also received the most diaspora votes in previous elections, Kamberi says surveys indicate two key reasons for this: the fight against corruption and patriotism.

"There are various reasons why the diaspora votes more for Kurti. According to surveys we have seen, some respondents said that Kurti’s anti-corruption policies were the reason why the diaspora voted for him. They still perceive Kosovo as a place where the fight against corruption is ongoing," Kamberi told Kosovo Online.

As another significant factor, Kamberi highlights the diaspora’s patriotism and events in northern Kosovo.

"They perceive Kurti as the man who restored Kosovo's sovereignty and laws in the north. These could be the two main reasons. However, I personally believe they vote for Kurti more because of the anti-corruption symbolism he represents. They see him as someone who will bring order and more justice to Kosovo. That is the reason," Kamberi said.

Commenting on previous initiatives suggesting that the diaspora should not vote because it is not fully aware of the real situation in Kosovo, this analyst explains that the regulation of diaspora voting varies worldwide, including in the region.

"Like in North Macedonia or Croatia, there are different models for how the diaspora can be represented and how it can vote. In some countries, for instance, there is a reserved quota of three or five MPs for the diaspora," Kamberi explained.

He also emphasizes that the question of whether the diaspora should only vote in parliamentary elections—since they do not live in Kosovo—should also be addressed.

"In some countries, the diaspora does not have the right to vote in local elections but can vote in parliamentary ones," Kamberi specified.

However, he does not expect legal changes anytime soon, as the issue of diaspora votes remains a "sensitive topic" and a focal point for Kosovo’s leading Albanian parties.

"Kurti’s ruling party sees this as something that belongs to them, and Self-Determination would certainly not be willing to discuss it because they perceive it as an opposition attempt to weaken them. This issue should be resolved in a way that is acceptable to all major Albanian parties. Once diaspora votes are balanced, it will open the space for a solution, and various models from within the European Union could be applied," Kamberi believes.

Economy as a Secondary Concern

Marko Miskeljin, an associate at the Center for Social Stability, believes that Self-Determination’s overwhelming victory in the diaspora during the recent elections is a result of Albin Kurti’s nationalist narrative and the fact that economic issues are of secondary importance to citizens who do not live in Kosovo.

"For people living in the diaspora who vote, nationalism is their priority, and Albin Kurti not only promotes it but has built his entire campaign and political actions on spreading nationalism. Unfortunately, this is primarily reflected in the mistreatment of the Serbian population in Kosovo and Metohija," Miskeljin told Kosovo Online.

He explains that the Self-Determination Movement "wins over" the diaspora with rhetoric that does not focus on economic issues, which are the primary concerns for the average voter in Kosovo.

"We are aware of the overall economic situation, the lack of a real fight against corruption, and even the EU-imposed measures that pose a challenge to budget revenues. However, these are not primary concerns for people living abroad. And that is one of the reasons why Albin Kurti received such strong support from the diaspora," the analyst argues.

He highlights the strategic media placement of narratives that the diaspora wants to hear as another crucial factor.

"To a large extent, Kurti managed to convince a portion of the electorate by promoting a narrative primarily through media outlets under his control or aligned with him. This narrative was highly effective among diaspora voters because it aligned with their main interests. Existential issues, the economy, and the fight against corruption are not things that affect them in their daily lives since they live in well-organized systems. From that perspective, this was also the main focus of Albin Kurti’s campaign, so it was only natural that his greatest success came from this segment of the electorate," Miskeljin emphasizes.