A game of chess between Self-Determination and the opposition over the Presidential Election: Who has the upper hand?

The deadline for electing a new President of Kosovo expires in 25 days, and there have been no signals from the Self-Determination Movement indicating whether it is prepared to reach an agreement with the opposition on this post. Without an agreement, new elections will follow. Interlocutors for Kosovo Online assess that Albin Kurti would rather opt for a new test of strength than make concessions to political opponents whom he can put in an “take it or leave it” position. They do not rule out the possibility that Kurti could accept an opposition-backed candidate—but only if that person does not pose a political threat to him, rather than because they would be a unifying figure.

Written by: Dusica Radeka Djordjevic

Despite a convincing victory in the parliamentary elections, Self-Determination cannot reach the two-thirds majority required by the Kosovo Constitution to elect a president without the opposition.
In the past, various deals have been struck over this position, and such arrangements are possible again—but the question is who is willing to concede how much.
One scenario discussed by analysts in Pristina is a coalition between Self-Determination and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). However, the LDK has said that no internal discussions have yet taken place on the presidential election and that it is too early to speak of concrete names, including Vjosa Osmani, who has already stated that she seeks a second term.
Others openly advocate the candidacy of Ramush Haradinaj, leader of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK).
According to analyst Dorajet Imeri, nominating Haradinaj would be the wisest move for opposition parties, as it would, in his view, avert new elections.
That Haradinaj is working to become the opposition’s joint candidate for president was confirmed by Pal Lekaj, Vice President of the AAK.
“I think it is the right time for the opposition to unite and decide on a consensus candidate—and in this case, why not Mr. Haradinaj?” Lekaj told Kosovo Press.

At the same time, he said that AAK’s six MPs will not vote for Osmani, and added that it remains unclear whether Kurti is determined to nominate Osmani or another consensus candidate.
The strategy of the ruling coalition remains unclear for now. Through the President of the Alternative party, Mimoza Kusari Lila, the opposition received a message that their ideas would be heard, but with no indication of readiness for compromise.
Analyst Artan Muhaxhiri told Kosovo Online that it is well known Kurti is not inclined toward compromise.
However, he stressed that without compromise Kurti cannot secure the 80 votes needed to elect a president, even though he won 51 percent in the parliamentary elections.
“The key is in the hands of the opposition. I do not think the PDK will cooperate with Kurti, and I also believe that the LDK will now demand something significant in return—unlike last time, when they voted for Vjosa Osmani without asking for anything. They will have to demand something substantial because their election result was very poor, so they have no other option but to gain something by helping Mr. Kurti elect a new president,” Muhaxhiri said.

Compromises, he added, could come at different levels and relate to institutional positions.
“That could be the post of parliamentary speaker, an agreement on new judges of the Constitutional Court, or other matters—but there must be compromise. Kurti cannot impose a candidate, whoever it may be. I am 100 percent sure the opposition would not give him the votes in that case, and we would head to new elections,” Muhaxhiri said.

Milos Pavkovic, Director of Strategy at the Belgrade-based Center for European Policy, believes Kurti will not heed opposition proposals and will push his own candidate at all costs.
“He has no appetite whatsoever for any kind of compromise with the opposition. Whether Kurti’s candidate will be Vjosa Osmani or someone else from Self-Determination, we do not know at this moment. He will likely weigh the situation, but my expectation is that he will go with Vjosa,” Pavkovic told Kosovo Online.
In calculations over the presidency, he added, parliamentary election results play a major role, since Kurti won over 50 percent and—with a few minority MPs—can form a government on his own without other Albanian parties.
“If he does not need any other party to form a government, why would he take them into account for the presidential election? Knowing Kurti and his history of stubbornness and non-cooperation with the opposition, I see no basis for expecting him to seek cooperation. If an opposition party supports his candidate, he will accept it, but he will not openly negotiate—he will simply impose his candidate and leave the opposition with ‘take it or leave it,’” Pavkovic said.

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic also sees Kurti as someone unlikely to court the opposition and more inclined to accept new elections.
In his view, Kurti would not mind going to new elections, as it suits him to govern Kosovo as a caretaker prime minister; he is also convinced he would win again and retain control over forming a new government.
“He is not in a position where he must beg the opposition for a quorum to elect a president,” Gogic told Kosovo Online.

Kurti will, he believes, leave it to the opposition to decide what is more worthwhile: toppling the government by denying a quorum or acting constructively and enabling the election of a president.
At the same time, everyone is aware, Gogic says, that the opposition spent the past year calculating and overplaying its hand.
“They have already made miscalculations believing elections would work in their favor, and now the question is whether they would repeat the same mistake. If they were to bring down the government now by denying a quorum, public anger would turn against them, and they would be accused of being losers unable to accept defeat and of causing another crisis in Kosovo,” Gogic said.

An Acceptable Candidate Without Authority

On this chessboard, however, the issue is not only whether Self-Determination would sacrifice an important position to secure opposition support, but also who that person would be.
Muhaxhiri says Kurti will not propose someone with political authority and power.
“He will want the new president to be on the same wavelength as he is—just as President Osmani has been—especially on major issues, decisions, and state strategies. I do not think he will choose anyone who could say ‘no’ to him on important national matters,” he said.

Gogic believes the only factor influencing Kurti’s support for a candidate is whether he sees that person as a threat.
“If he were to abandon support for Osmani—and that is possible—it would not be a concession to the opposition. Rather, he would assess her as a risk, given her very strong ties in the United States, and thus a threat. For him, the question is whether Osmani is a greater political threat as president in another term or as someone who could move into the opposition. That assessment will determine the presidential candidate,” Gogic said.
Kurti could, he added, also opt for a candidate portrayed as unifying and non-controversial—but that would not be the real motive.
“The reason would be that such a person would not be a rival. He could make a move and accept an opposition candidate, but not to calm tensions—rather because he would not see that person as a threat,” Gogic concluded.

What the Constitution and Rules Say

Under the Constitution of Kosovo, electing a president requires a two-thirds majority of all MPs—80 votes. If no candidate secures the required majority in the first two rounds, a third round is held between the two candidates who received the most votes in the second round.
Under the 2022 Rules of Procedure of the Assembly, the first and second rounds are valid only if at least 80 MPs participate, while at least 61 MPs must participate in the third round.
If no candidate is elected in the third round, the Assembly is dissolved and new elections must be held within 45 days.