Game of Thrones in the USA: Will the New American President Follow the "Old Policy" Towards Kosovo?

The global audience is currently entertained by speculation on how the future American president, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, will handle world affairs, from Ukraine to the Middle East. The game is even more intriguing because almost nothing is known about Kamala Harris's foreign policy, while there are too many statements from Trump on this issue – so many that they confuse. She is invisible; he is unpredictable. Who should you bet on?

By: Dragana Savic

John Bolton, Trump's national security advisor from 2018 to 2019, recently said that the former president lacks consistent principles and is governed by "mood, anger, and obsession with image."

On the other hand, although current President Joseph Biden's gaffes have ceased to be amusing to many, given that he leads one of the world's most powerful countries, Kamala Harris's appearances often provoke ridicule and astonishment, which in her case cannot be attributed to age.

Many in the domestic public, with good reason, place more hope in the Republicans, considering that their past is not burdened with responsibility for the bombing of Serbia, thus looking to Trump as a "non-interventionist president."

This is misplaced optimism, some interlocutors for Kosovo Online warn, highlighting that the U.S. stance towards Serbia is much more favorable than the approach of some EU countries and that it is not in our interest for America to forget us.

Ironically enough, Serbia's greatest hope actually lies in Pristina, which, according to experts, is the only one that can influence a change in America's favorable stance towards Kosovo by making unilateral moves that further provoke tension and worsen the situation on the ground.

No one knows Kamala Harris's foreign policy beliefs or positions because she has never expressed them, journalist Ljiljana Smajlovic confirms for Kosovo Online, emphasizing that it would probably be better for Serbia if someone like Trump, whose personal career was not involved in the secession of Kosovo from Serbia as Biden's was, were president of the USA.

She adds that it is impossible to know exactly what the new American administration's approach to Kosovo will be, but that Trump would look to "end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible."

"I speak about this for Serbia's sake. If it matters to you that we don't have the war in Ukraine hanging over our heads, if you'd prefer that we aren't constantly asked when we will sanction Russia, if you'd like to avoid pressure to supply weapons to Ukraine, and if you like the idea of having a president who doesn't start new interventions, regime changes, and wars, then it would be natural to believe that it might also be better for Kosovo to have a non-interventionist president whose personal career wasn't involved in taking Kosovo from Serbia, as was the case with Biden," she explains.

Smajlovic emphasizes that, as a citizen of Serbia, she would "instinctively go with someone who hasn't started new wars."

"But that doesn't mean a particular favor towards us or Kosovo. These are the markers by which you can judge – how many new countries did Americans start bombing during the tenure of a given president," she explains.

On the other hand, Stevan Nedeljkovic, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, believes that there has been unfounded optimism in Serbia for decades that if the Republicans come to power in the USA, it will be significantly better for us, and if the Democrats win, we can expect a very difficult period.

"What is very important for us at this moment is when the famous Resolution on Srebrenica happened, some say that the USA did not lift a finger to support this Resolution, except for voting in favor, and that it was more an initiative of Germany and the United Kingdom, which drastically shows the approach of the USA towards Serbia, especially in the past four years, indicating that it is much better than we expected when Joseph Biden came to power. In that regard, I'm really not sure we should be such fatalists and expect that with Kamala Harris's victory, a doomsday awaits us, nor should we be such optimists to expect that with Donald Trump's victory, we will be greeted with an El Dorado and a better life," Nedeljkovic assesses for Kosovo Online.

He points out that it is a mistaken premise to believe that it is better for Serbia if the USA is less engaged in foreign policy.

"In recent years, we have seen that the approach of the EU, specifically key countries like Germany, is more radical than that of the USA towards this region. In this sense, I think we should welcome more significant US engagement in these areas. This, of course, does not exclude the possibility that if Donald Trump wins, he will not be dedicated to this region, primarily because there are people like Richard Grenell or Rod Blagojevich, who, I can say freely, advocate for the interests of the Republic of Serbia within Trump's circle. They are very close to Donald Trump, which could potentially benefit the Republic of Serbia in the future," our interlocutor explains.

Former diplomat Blerim Canaj tells Kosovo Online that US policy towards Kosovo will remain the same, regardless of who becomes the new American president.

"The issue of Kosovo will not change much from America's perspective. We already know how America has dealt with Kosovo, and I believe that whether it is Trump or Kamala, the policy towards Kosovo will remain the same," Canaj assesses.

He adds that there may be some changes in US foreign policy regarding other places in the world, which are, as he emphasizes, "currently a bit more important." According to him, this is the state policy of America.

"You don't approach it, like in all serious countries, with 'okay, this person is coming, and now we're going to change everything,'" he believes.

However, Canaj expects Trump to be more aggressive in decision-making.

"I don't expect much to change, but maybe Trump will be a bit more aggressive in decision-making and won't wait as long as Biden did," he concludes.

It is unlikely that any event on the planet can influence the US stance on Kosovo, Marko Miskeljin, a researcher at the Center for Social Stability, tells Kosovo Online, adding that Donald Trump, as a potential US president, is expected to take a more pragmatic approach.

"So, besides the emotional reasons why Serbs support Trump, there is also a rational reason, which we have felt before and can now hear from some Republicans who are expected to be part of Trump's administration. They advocate for a more pragmatic approach and, above all, a willingness to listen to both sides, which has not always been the case when a Democratic administration was in power in America," says Miskeljin.

He notes, however, that "except for some major global escalation," it is unlikely that any other event on the planet can directly influence the US stance on Kosovo.

"What can influence the stance of a particular administration is the behavior of the Pristina administration. We should not forget that Richard Grenell brought down Kurti's first government precisely because it conflicted with US positions. In such cases, we can expect tougher stances and reactions, especially if the Pristina side continues to do what it has done throughout this Democratic administration in America, which are constant provocations and attempts to draw Serbia into conflict, not with them, but with NATO. This is something that Donald Trump would not tolerate, as we have seen during his first term," concludes our interlocutor.