Nedeljkovic: There is unfounded optimism that it will be more favorable for Serbia if Republicans come to power in the US

In Serbia, there has been unfounded optimism for decades that if Republicans come to power in the United States, it will be significantly more favorable for us, and if Democrats come to power, we can expect a very difficult period, Stevan Nedeljkovic, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, emphasizes for Kosovo Online. He adds that the four years of Joe Biden's mandate have shown that "this is certainly not the case."

At this moment, we do not have Kamala Harris's foreign policy directions, although vice presidents previously had prominent foreign policy roles, which is not quite the case with her and Mike Pence, Nedeljkovic says, adding that we can only guess that Kamala Harris will follow the directions held by the Biden administration.

"What we can expect in the coming months if Kamala Harris wins is more insistence on the rule of law, on human rights, both in terms of global policy and in terms of the Western Balkans region. I am not sure whether this suits this region. Biden had certain foreign policy experience regarding the Balkan area, and Kamala Harris has no such experience," our interlocutor states.

He assesses that it is certain she will maintain a firm commitment to strengthening NATO and significant American presence in Europe, which includes the Western Balkans region.

"There has been unfounded optimism here for decades: if Republicans come to power, it will be significantly more favorable for us, and if Democrats come to power, we can expect a very difficult period. I think the four years of Joe Biden's mandate have shown that this is certainly not the case. In my opinion, we had a fairly favorable stance from the Biden administration in the past four years regarding Serbia, and that policy did not significantly change compared to Donald Trump's administration," Nedeljkovic believes.

He recalls that there was an insistence on the economic connectivity of the region through the Open Balkan initiative and other initiatives, and there was not excessive insistence on quickly resolving the Kosovo issue.

"What is very important for us at this moment is the well-known Srebrenica Resolution. Some say that the US did not lift a finger to support this resolution, other than voting for it, and it was more of an initiative by Germany and the United Kingdom, which drastically shows the US approach to Serbia, primarily in the past four years. It is much better than we expected when Joe Biden came to power. In this regard, I am really not sure that we should be such fatalists and expect that a 'day of reckoning' will await us if Kamala Harris wins, nor should we be such optimists to expect an El Dorado and a better life if Donald Trump wins," he assesses.

If Donald Trump wins, he believes that considering the personal connections the government in Belgrade currently has with Republicans, Serbia can expect a somewhat better position in Washington and the White House than it has had in previous years, even decades. However, he adds that "these differences are not such that Serbia can expect to overcome obstacles regarding EU membership or Kosovo's independence."

When it comes to the grand strategy of the US, Nedeljkovic thinks that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump would advocate slightly different strategies: Kamala Harris would advocate a strategy of deep US engagement in any part of the world, while Donald Trump's policy is that America should not fight 'senseless wars' or engage everywhere and spend its resources.

"In this sense, the optimism lies here: if the US is not engaged, it is better for us. I think this is a wrong premise. In recent years, we have seen that the EU's approach, specifically the key states like Germany, is more radical than the US approach towards this region. In this sense, I think we should look forward to a more significant US engagement in these areas, which of course does not exclude that if Donald Trump wins, he will not be dedicated to this area. Primarily because there are people like Richard Grenell or Rod Blagojevich, who, I can freely say, represent the interests of the Republic of Serbia at this moment in Trump's environment. And they are very close to Donald Trump, which could potentially benefit the Republic of Serbia in the future," he concludes.