New administration, old promises: Does the EU have a strategy for Western Balkans integration?

New faces are at the helm of the EU, but the promises remain the same—at least ones the Western Balkans have been hearing for decades. Does the future European administration finally have a strategy for integrating the region's countries into the EU, or is everything still on hold? The carrot has never been in short supply.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic emphasized at the European Political Community Summit in Budapest that the EU needs to change its strategy for the entire Western Balkans, including Serbia, and make strategic decisions on enlargement.

"I believe that instead of repeating the same messages over and over, we need a real strategic discussion among all of us sitting here and some other countries," said the Serbian president.

On June 21, 2003, 21 years ago, leaders of the European Union and its member states, along with then-accession countries and leaders of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, and Serbia and Montenegro, adopted a declaration unequivocally confirming a European perspective for all Western Balkan countries.

Since then, promises have multiplied, as have deadlines for when integration might happen.

"We want the Western Balkans in the European Union. We have a clear agenda for that; the accession process is ongoing," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said about ten days ago.

The Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, which is set to begin implementation this year, is the first tangible proof that the Union has not forgotten the region.

The head of the European Union Delegation to Serbia, Emanuele Giaufret, stated that the upcoming year is critical, emphasizing that EU enlargement is no longer merely a political goal but a geopolitical imperative and the highest priority for the EU, requiring urgent action to include the Western Balkans and other aspiring member countries.

For the EU’s future chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, the timeline for enlargement is somewhat longer.

"Enlargement is a joint strategy that serves the interests of the European Union. It makes our Union stronger, makes the new members of the European family more stable and secure, and allows us all to prosper. Over the next five years, we need clear results in the area of enlargement. I will work hand-in-hand with the Enlargement Commissioner to achieve this goal," Kallas stated during her hearing for the role of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

For regional analysts, from Tirana to Belgrade, there is no doubt that the EU must change its strategy regarding the Western Balkans. The only question is whether different priorities will once again take precedence for the new administration.

Petar Curcic, a researcher at the Institute for European Studies, told Kosovo Online that the question of EU enlargement for Western Balkan countries is tied to security and economic challenges within the Union, as well as the focus the new European administration will place on the "Eastern Partnership," particularly Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia.

"The issue of enlargement will depend on Europe's global relations, primarily concerning the Eastern Partnership. We're talking about Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia. Without progress in this area, it seems there will be no enlargement for the Western Balkans either. We'll see whether the Western Balkan countries manage to join this process," Curcic stated.

Petar Curcic, a researcher at the Institute for European Studies, explained that the EU's new approach requires not only administrative changes but also targeted investments in Serbia and other Western Balkan countries.

"This new approach will demand more than administrative reforms and some alignment with enlargement policies. It will also necessitate investments directed not only toward Serbia as the most significant Western Balkan country but also toward other countries in the region," Curcic emphasized.

He added that unresolved "technical issues" remain a significant challenge.

"There are numerous unresolved technical issues, such as border disputes, pollution, the rule of law... Migration will also be a key focus. For example, the Italian government recently signed several agreements with Albania regarding migration intake. These are all security and economic issues that will require coordinated action," Curcic elaborated.

The future of enlargement, he stressed, will depend on the overall geopolitical and internal political dynamics, with significant clarity expected only after the new EU budget is adopted.

"The next budget cycle in 2027 will be a critical indicator of whether the EU plans new expansions. The current European administration, alongside the next German government, will have a vital mission to determine the foundations of new financial policies for European institutions and shape the EU's trajectory for the next decade," he stated.

However, he cautioned that the implementation of strategic changes will largely depend on the willingness of political actors.

"It's very difficult to predict how these processes will unfold in the coming years," Curcic concluded.

Afrim Hoti, a professor of law and international relations at the University of Pristina, highlighted the need for a new EU enlargement strategy that focuses on accelerating the process rather than imposing bureaucratic obstacles.

Commenting on Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's statement about the need for a strategy shift, Hoti agreed, saying that a new strategy is essential to expedite integration.

"I’m not exactly sure what President Vucic meant by enlargement, but a new strategy is absolutely necessary. This has been the demand of all Western Balkan leaders over the past decade. The Western Balkans is the only region in Europe not integrated into the Union. Events over the past two to three years, especially between Ukraine and Russia, underscore the necessity of EU enlargement. How this should work remains to be seen, but I fully agree that we need a strategy to accelerate the integration process for the six Western Balkan countries," Hoti told Kosovo Online.

He sees accession as feasible if bureaucratic barriers are removed but warns against expecting a "package deal" where all countries join simultaneously.

"Each country’s progress determines its pace of integration. The key is to accelerate and simplify the process for every country," Hoti emphasized.

Hoti also pointed out that previous waves of EU enlargement were not always based on fulfilling pre-set criteria.

"All waves of EU enlargement, except for the one in 1995, were more responses to crises than the result of meeting criteria. The Western Balkans' turn for integration is now, and I believe this will complete the EU integration idea," he concluded.

Gert Selenica, Director of the Albanian Center for Strategic Studies, remarked that Albania views President Vucic’s call for a new EU strategy positively. He criticized the EU’s approach to the region, likening it to a teacher-student relationship.

"The EU's decision-making remains in Brussels, but skepticism toward the Balkans persists, partly due to the crises the EU has faced, such as Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the recent migration crisis. The EU’s behavior toward us has often been like a teacher imposing conditions on students, which we’ve strived to meet," Selenica told Kosovo Online.

He noted that Western Balkan countries have made efforts to meet EU demands but struggle with implementation.

"We claim to fight corruption, but corruption remains a significant issue across the Balkans. We say citizens are involved in decision-making, but in reality, they are becoming less so. These issues may have influenced the EU's cautious stance on enlargement," Selenica said.

He suggested that bringing the Western Balkans closer to Brussels through localized EU structures could enhance integration efforts.

"A closer connection with Brussels would mean establishing the necessary mechanisms and structures here for the EU to exert its influence and implement its policies in the region," he concluded.

Gert Selenica, Director of the Albanian Center for Strategic Studies, highlights the difficulties Western Balkan countries face in meeting EU demands.

"We are implementing reforms in the right direction, but we struggle with their execution. While we claim to fight corruption, corruption remains a significant issue across all Balkan countries. We say citizens are involved in decision-making, but the reality is that they are increasingly excluded. These challenges likely contribute to the EU's cautious stance on enlargement. However, the EU must adopt a different approach to the Western Balkans. Brussels should establish 'stations' in the Balkans, which would bring the region closer to the EU. A closer Western Balkans to Brussels would enable the creation of necessary structures and mechanisms for the EU to exert influence and implement policies in our region," Selenica explained.

He added that Western Balkan countries have made efforts to enhance mutual cooperation, particularly in political, economic, and infrastructural domains.

"This includes agreements between Western Balkan countries to create local markets and structures. We’ve built a kind of infrastructure for the road to the EU," Selenica noted.

However, Selenica warns that nationalism remains a persistent issue in the region.

For Serbia, he identifies the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina as a critical challenge.

"The Balkans face significant issues, such as the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo. While political statements are made, we must consider what is realistically achievable. It’s known that Serbia’s EU accession process would be easier if it recognized Kosovo. While this may seem like an impossible goal, dialogue with Kosovo must continue. The same applies to Pristina. The EU’s approach to Kosovo involves conditionality rather than generosity. As long as mediators insist on dialogue, it means possibilities exist, but political will is required," Selenica concluded.

Leposava Ognjanoska Stavrovska, a lecturer at the International Balkan University and a PhD candidate in EU law and European integration from Skopje, emphasized that the geopolitical context is the most critical factor for the EU’s integration of the Western Balkans.

"What has changed in recent years is the geopolitical context, which has increased pressure for EU enlargement," Ognjanoska Stavrovska stated in an interview with Kosovo Online.

She pointed to platforms such as the European Political Community, introduced by French President Emmanuel Macron after the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, and forums for strategic and political dialogue between EU countries and regional candidates.

"However, this geopolitical pressure, which facilitated certain strategic decisions for Ukraine and Moldova, has not been adequately reflected or replicated for the Western Balkans, leaving the region in a state of uncertainty about the future course of the enlargement process. Nevertheless, these forums and platforms indicate a shift in the EU’s mindset and recognition of the strategic importance of this process, particularly regarding the Western Balkans," Ognjanoska Stavrovska explained.

She noted that EU enlargement has historically relied on two key factors: conditionality, requiring candidate countries to meet specific criteria, and geopolitical circumstances.

"Geopolitical circumstances have always influenced the accession of new member states. Regarding the Western Balkans, the process has stagnated in recent years, and the EU has failed to replicate the success it achieved with Central and Eastern European countries by providing a predictable path for candidates in the region," Ognjanoska Stavrovska observed.

She believes a successful strategy for the Western Balkans must drive the process forward by boosting internal momentum for reforms while providing greater predictability.

"To speak of the EU’s credibility, we must have predictability—we need to know where, how, and by when we are moving. It’s not accurate to say there’s been no progress or a complete standstill. Montenegro has consistently achieved certain results in the integration process, and we’re now seeing Albania making strides. The situation feels less tangible in North Macedonia, which explains the sense of Euroscepticism discussed, though I wouldn’t agree with that characterization," she concluded.

She emphasized that to truly understand the European integration process, it is necessary to comprehend how it unfolds.

"We need to know how it will proceed, whether there will be a specific date for the accession of regional countries, whether it will be based on the principle of differentiation, or if it will involve a broader expansion of the bloc. Ultimately, the process must bring tangible benefits. My sense is that the last significant benefit from European integration for the country and the region was visa liberalization. While the European Union has since implemented other policies to keep the region engaged—such as the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, which will provide certain funds—it is crucial to ensure that these policies have a real impact. They must resonate with citizens and shape their perception of the European Union," Ognjanoska Stavrovska concluded.