New EU tactics in the dialogue; will the formation of the CSM finally happen?

The last round of dialogue at the technical level held in Brussels yesterday concluded without concrete results but with "useful discussions", as assessed by the European Envoy Miroslav Lajcak in separate meetings with the chief negotiators of Belgrade and Pristina. However, the messages heard after the meetings indicate that the positions of the two sides on key issues remain unchanged: for Belgrade and the Serbs in Kosovo, it is the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities, while Pristina rejects any discussion on this until Serbia commits to de facto recognition. Will the new EU tactics in the dialogue bear fruit and finally result in the formation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities after more than a decade?

Participants in Kosovo Online discussions note that after the EU presented its proposal for the Statute of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities and after yesterday's talks in Brussels, there seem to be some positive indicators. Still, caution is advised in making predictions, given the previous "firm" stance of Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who has consistently rejected any indication of moving towards the formation of the Community since taking office, despite it being an obligation of Pristina under the Brussels Agreement of 2013.

Lajcak, after meetings with Serbia's chief negotiator Petar Petkovic, and Kosovo's Besnik Bislimi, emphasized that the discussions had been useful for progress on numerous issues on the agenda. Lajcak had separate meetings with Petkovic and Bislimi, and a trilateral meeting did not take place. Our interlocutors assess that the Brussels mediators' apparent judgment is that trilateral meetings, as was the case before, would only hinder the entire process. They seem determined to try a new tactic of reaching agreements on all details in separate meetings before both sides gather around the same table.

Director of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija, Petar Petkovic, stated that the main topic of discussions between the Belgrade delegation and Lajcak and his team in Brussels had been the draft of the CSM Statute. He emphasized that the Statute should be the backbone of the CSM and must align with the agreements from 2013 and 2015. Petkovic conveyed that the Belgrade delegation had brought 18 experts from various fields to Brussels, indicating the seriousness and responsibility of the dialogue process with Pristina.

"The draft of the CSM Statute was on the agenda, representing the first concrete step towards the formation of the CSM, awaited by the Serbs in Kosovo for more than 10 years. The talks will continue", Petkovic said, also noting that other important issues such as energy and the issue of missing persons had been on the agenda, expecting some progress in these areas.

On the other hand, Bislimi claims that he did not discuss the draft of the CSM Statute with Lajcak, although he confirmed that it had been on the agenda. He stated that Pristina would not start working on the formation of the CSM without the signing of three agreements.

"The implementation cannot begin without signatures because we need a guarantee that we have a valid agreement that carries obligations for the other party as well", Bislimi said.

President of the Commission for Missing Persons of the Serbian Government, Veljko Odalovic, stated after yesterday's talks in Brussels, where the delegations of Belgrade and Pristina separately met with the European Union Special Representative for the dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, that the CSM was the "topic of all topics". He emphasized that the future of the Serbs, all future relations, and stability in Kosovo depended on how the CSM would be structured and what powers it would have. Odalovic told Kosovo Online that Pristina would have to form the CSM, and there was no more dilemma about it.

"By establishing the CSM, we would interrupt the institutional terror that Kurti is conducting, and we would return to some normalcy, which would involve organizing new elections in the north for the Serbs to get their representatives, and the Assembly of the Community to be constituted", Odalovic pointed out, who was a part of the Serbian delegation at the talks in Brussels.

He emphasizes that it is not crucial whether the Community will be called the "Community of Serb-majority Municipalities" or the "Community of Municipalities with a Serb majority" but how it will function and what powers it will have.

Without the CSM, he warns, we are entering a more dangerous zone because, as he says, "Kurti has no intention of giving up everything he is doing and starting to return to normal but continues with the terror of the Serbs”.

"When you have local self-government in the north that was elected in containers, the presence of police with long guns, customs, police, judiciary without the Serbs, then it is a serious problem to protect the Serbian community. That was the essence of the first Brussels Agreement, to create a framework that would protect the rights of the Serbs", Odalovic says.

He believes that now is the time to decide whether the CSM will finally be formed or whether there will be a further escalation that brings many challenges and dangers and is not good for anyone.

"Now the most important thing is to create the right framework, to organize real elections in the north, and elect legitimate representatives of the Serbs because they are the ones who should choose representatives in the Assembly of the CSM. I think the best and fastest way is for the 'container mayors' to resign and shorten the path to new elections in the north", Odalovic emphasizes.

He emphasized that at yesterday's talks in Brussels, the Director of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija, Petar Petkovic, had presented all of this in a good way.

"Our side approached all proposals of the dialogue mediator constructively. I hope that Pristina will also start thinking constructively, not just obstructing and making moves that set us back, as has been the case so far. Everyone recognizes this, and why there are not stronger reactions from representatives of the international community to this is a question for them. It is certain that for many things Kurti has done so far, he had either direct or tacit support from a part of the European community, which is doing everything to finalize the statehood of their project. It is not good that they do it in a way that will not be applicable because it will open up many new problems. It is important not to get into a situation, as was the case, where many major agreements are made not to solve the problem but to promote a result, and beneath that, everything smolders and escalates", Odalovic says, who emphasizes the importance of respecting international law and principles to implement everything that has been agreed upon.

Regarding the messages from the head of the Pristina negotiating team, Besnik Bislimi, that the status of the CSM had not been discussed at the talks in Brussels and would not be until an agreement was signed that would imply obligations for the Serbian side, Odalovic says that these messages are aimed at calming the Albanian public in Kosovo.

"There would be no meeting in Brussels yesterday if the CSM was not a topic. One thing is what Bislimi and Kurti say for internal use because they are under great pressure from the public and the opposition, which claims that they are doing everything rather non-transparently, that some adventures they engage in, according to their standards and criteria, are a 'danger', as they say, to their 'statehood'. They must know that what they sometimes declare will not be the only relevant thing. They can have their opinion, but it certainly will not be decisive", Odalovic says.

He emphasizes that all messages from representatives of the international community since the escalation of the situation in the north due to Kurti's moves have been that the CSM must be formed.

"If the CSM were formed, things would function much better, it would be better for both Albanians and Serbs, and there would be no incidents. The CSM with the powers provided for in the agreements will not create any problems in the coexistence of the Serbs and the Albanians. The CSM doesn't bother anyone except in the minds of the most extreme who think that because some Western countries have recognized Kosovo, the story is over. Well, if it is, why are our officials getting their 'legs and arms broken' when negotiating to put their signatures on some agreements?" Odalovic points out.

Coordinator of the Working Group of the National Convention on the European Union for Chapter 35, Dragisa Mijacic, believes that there is progress in the negotiations regarding the CSM, adding that this can be best observed in the tone of Albin Kurti's statements, who has expressed positive views on the document on the table several times.

Mijacic explains to Kosovo Online that not much is known about the CSM document, but last week, a draft of this agreement appeared in Albanian media, which he believes is likely authentic.

"Reading that document, we see that Serbia doesn't have many arguments not to accept it because it was precisely done in accordance with what was agreed upon in 2013-2015. Meanwhile, the Pristina side will certainly seek the official acceptance of the agreement reached earlier this year in Brussels, and later with an annex in Ohrid. So, we can expect both sides to commit further very soon to implementing all provisions from Brussels and Ohrid. Also, I hope that we will soon see the adoption of the CSM Statute version both in Belgrade and in Pristina", Mijacic says.

He adds that yesterday's negotiations in Brussels aim to prepare a new round of talks between Albin Kurti and Aleksandar Vucic, where the finalization of all provisions to which both sides have committed would take place.

"The negotiation process on key principles is already completed. The meetings we witnessed yesterday aim to prepare a new round of talks between Kurti and Vucic, where the finalization of all provisions to which both sides have committed would take place. The biggest problem for Pristina and Belgrade is the communication of accepting the provisions, so after the dialogue, each side comes out and expresses their views, firmly defending what they stand for. However, the dialogue process is progressing, and it will result in what Kurti and Vucic have committed to", Mijacic emphasized.

Mijacic emphasizes that the European Council meeting is crucial for both Kosovo and Serbia because it will decide on the further path to the EU.

"There is a very important meeting, the European Council meeting on December 14-15, and at the European Council, Borrell will report to the EU heads of government and state on the results of the dialogue. Based on that, they will decide whether and how Serbia and Kosovo will progress towards the EU. This is a very important meeting at this time of the year, and I believe that if there are any results, they will be before that meeting, and the implementation of the agreement will wait for the New Year and the months after January", he explained.

He adds that attempts to form the CSM will not bear fruit unless there are extraordinary elections in the four Serbian municipalities in northern Kosovo.

"I honestly think that there will be no concrete results regarding the CSM Statute unless extraordinary elections are held. That is a part of such negotiations. We know that a mistake was made in Ohrid, where negotiations were not about elections but about principles for implementing the agreement. When the extraordinary elections came, the Serbian community, since there was no concrete proposal, did not participate in the elections. So now, if extraordinary elections are not organized in northern Kosovo, I fear that all these attempts to form the CSM will not bear fruit. Hence, what Bislimi and Lajcak are negotiating now is a sequential roadmap that determines the obligations of both sides in parallel over the next six months. Serbia will do something, and Kosovo will do something; the first step is expected to be the adoption of the CSM draft or submission to the Constitutional Court. Then Serbia will make a concession for that step, and the adoption of the statute and extraordinary elections are expected. In the next six to nine months, I expect that all of this can be organized", Mijacic concluded.

Srdjan Graovac from the Center for Social Stability assessed after another round of Belgrade-Pristina talks that it was currently difficult to expect any significant progress because it was clear that the Albanian side did not want the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities to be accepted as a solution. He added that Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti would rather go to elections than accept the CSM.

"I think it is difficult to expect any significant progress when you look at the entire negotiation process, and we must consider it from two aspects. The first aspect is the idea that the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities be accepted as a solution. Then we understand that this can hardly be realized from the start because it seems that the Albanian side does not agree with it, i.e., it is clear that it does not suit the Albanian side at all", Graovac said.

He reminds that Albin Kurti gained popularity with a decisive stance that there would be no Community of Serb-majority Municipalities, and it is difficult to expect him to change his position when he has passed the halfway point of his mandate.

"He won the elections in February 2021, which means that the next elections in Kosovo are expected at the beginning of 2025. Taking that into account, it seems to me even more realistic that Albin Kurti would rather go to elections than accept the formation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities. This is only under the condition that the pressure from the West is so strong that he has to form the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities, which has not been the case so far. But if that were to happen, I think he would even prefer to go to early elections, and only then, with a new mandate, he would be ready for some compromise after materializing the support he now has in public", Graovac stated.

He adds that, apparently, there will be negotiations in the future regarding the draft of the CSM Statute, with the assessment that it will not go smoothly either, as there is no easy possibility of reaching a consensus between the Serbian and Albanian sides on that matter.

"And if there were to be some agreement on the draft of the CSM Statute, again, the implementation itself would not be easily agreed upon, or it would be impossible to find an agreement because, I repeat, Kurti does not want that implementation. On the other hand, if he were somehow forced to implement it, it would be conditioned, as Bislimi stated, exclusively by being a part of a comprehensive agreement in which Serbia would recognize Kosovo. When you take all that into account, I think things become more than clear, and there is little probability of any progress. The fact that you have two chief negotiators with completely different views on how these negotiation processes looked somewhere tells you the most, and that is due to the fact that Lajcak, as someone who moderates these negotiations, separately conducted talks with one and the other delegation, and the two delegations did not even meet. That tells you the most about how far we are from a successful continuation of the negotiations", Graovac said.

Regarding Lajcak's characterization of the discussions as "useful" after the meetings with both sides in Brussels, Graovac believes that, for the Serbs and the Albanians, the discussion cannot be reduced to just those words.

"If we think about his words a little, we will understand that he is looking for an expression that would provide additional encouragement to him and European officials to continue the negotiation process but without clear substance. That is the key problem because the essence is that you have to force the Albanian side to implement what has already been agreed upon, and signed, not just promised. This is the Brussels Agreement from 2013, a precondition for any further talks and for reaching subsequent agreements. And, in the end, the draft of the CSM Statute. All of this is a precondition for discussing other issues, and if you take that into account, then it becomes clear that this sentence also speaks of the impotence of Lajcak, the impotence of the Brussels administration. If, by any chance, they have the strength, if they have the ability to force Albin Kurti to implement what was promised if they have the desire to do so, they would certainly do it", Graovac said.

The key problem, our interlocutor emphasizes, is that the European Union has accepted the principle promoted by Kurti "to talk about the most difficult issue right at the beginning".

"You know that if you talk about the most difficult issue right at the beginning, then all other issues will remain on the sidelines. Serbia has advocated a stance from which the EU has gradually retreated, which is to reach agreements on what can be agreed upon, to relax the relationship between the Serbs and the Albanians, to make their lives better, and normal, and then leave the difficult questions for the end, making them less burdensome. If you have other issues resolved, and that crucial issue is less burdensome, then, of course, it becomes clear what the key problem is. The key problem is precisely in that, in connecting the status solution with the issue of the CSM, and in this way, you have blocked the entire process, not only because of Albin Kurti but also because the European Union has somehow accepted it as a model", Graovac emphasizes.

He reminds that mid-next year, European elections will take place, followed by the end of the year by the US elections, when pressure will increase.

"Do not forget that mid-next year there are European elections, and they want a certain success that they could present to the voters, that there will be pressure, but realistically, they do not have the instruments for that pressure. Decisive pressure needs to come from Washington, which has always been the mallet that helped European diplomacy to implement something. If that pressure comes, then achieving some result can be expected because that is the only thing Kurti can potentially react positively to. So, I would even expect more pressure after the new year, even more as the year progresses because at the end of the year, the US elections are coming. Also, the Biden administration will need some kind of foreign policy success before the elections, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Americans then intensify the pressure", he argues.

Graovac also added that he did not expect any progress regarding the calling of the extraordinary elections in northern Kosovo.

"Because Kurti gained his popularity by taking a clear stance, irreconcilable with the Serbian side, which aims to completely bring the northern part of Kosovo under Albanian control and keep it under Albanian control. If elections were held in northern Kosovo and Metohija, it would lead to the disempowerment of Kurti's fake mayors. We must call them that because they are indeed illegal and illegitimate mayors in the north, and that would weaken his position from the start. So, it seems to me, although Kurti will not deny that he wants those elections to happen, that he wants the authorities in northern Kosovo to have full legitimacy, he will sabotage it by saying, 'Sure, let's hold those elections, but as a precondition, we need to fulfill this and that, then as a precondition, we need to create some petition, how many signatures for that petition, will that petition be in line with the constitution of so-called Kosovo...' All of this will be an excuse to delay the process of going to elections in the north because, I repeat, this situation suits him as a response. He has his fake mayors in the north, has his Special Police Forces in the north, and he de facto controls the north, gaining popularity, especially among the radically inclined Albanian public in Kosovo and Metohija. This somehow convinces us that there is no chance of meeting the demands. Or, if he is willing to meet the desires of the international community, Albin Kurti will do so only after significant delays, depending on how much space he has and how strong the pressure from the West would be", Graovac concluded.