Post-election riddle: Can Kurti secure a parliamentary majority or are new elections ahead?

A chess problem, a mathematical riddle, or a political deadlock. This is how the institutional crisis Kosovo has found itself in after the February elections could briefly be described. An answer may come as early as tomorrow, during the fifth attempt to constitute the ninth parliamentary convocation. Experts speaking to Kosovo Online agree: Albin Kurti will do everything he can to reach the magic number of 61 MPs, which would later allow him to form a new government. The only question is whether Kurti's strategy, in the event of failing to elect a parliamentary speaker, involves continuing to govern in a “technical mandate” until early elections.

Written by: Djordje Barovic

Since the moment Self-Determination MP Glauk Konjufca requested more time on Monday for political negotiations around electing a new speaker of parliament, the exchange of accusations between the majority and the opposition over who is to blame for the emerging crisis has not ceased.

At the same time, speculation continues about who could be the “decisive vote” that would give the Self-Determination Movement the necessary majority.

From the beginning, public speculation has focused on the possibility that AAK’s coalition partners, the Nisma MPs, could play that role.

While Zafir Berisha, a member of Nisma’s presidency, claims that statements from Self-Determination officials are actually “preparing the ground for snap elections,” Nisma leader Fatmir Limaj calls for a political agreement.

“Sometimes you have to find a way to move forward. After all, this is how cooperation functions—by finding ways to establish Kosovo’s institutions. I hope that from today, there will be contacts to bring us closer and give a real chance to form institutions,” Limaj stated.

University professor Bljerim Canaj describes the current political reality in Kosovo as a “deadlock.”

“We are in a political stalemate that clearly demonstrates the urgent need for parties to sit at the table and talk about this issue—or else we will go to elections. But as long as this situation continues, with parliamentary sessions every 48 hours, we are heading toward elections,” Canaj warns.

In practice, according to current laws, a 30-day deadline begins after the verification of parliamentary mandates, during which the speaker must be elected and all parliamentary bodies constituted.

The election winner—in this case, the Self-Determination Movement—has the exclusive right to nominate the speaker of the parliament.

However, there are no clear legal provisions for what happens if that candidate fails to receive the required majority.

This opens the door to what is currently unfolding: a repeated voting process without end, though each session must be resumed within 48 hours.

If a speaker is not elected within 30 days, new elections are triggered.

Stalemate

Historian Stefan Radojkovic has no doubt that Albin Kurti will try everything to secure the majority needed not only to elect a parliamentary speaker from his party but also to form the next government.

However, he notes that regardless of whether Kurti succeeds, the Self-Determination Movement has shown “visible weakness” and declining influence since the February elections.

“It is increasingly clear that Self-Determination’s political position has been steadily weakening since these elections. Initially, Albin Kurti refused to resign as prime minister, even though the law—passed during his own mandate—required it, but he eventually had to comply. Then came the assumption that the entire Bosniak community would vote for Albulena Haxhiu’s election. That also failed, revealing a lack of votes. There was speculation that Nisma would be the deciding factor tipping the balance. Clearly, that didn’t happen either. And it’s becoming evident that, if united, the opposition could actually elect the speaker of the Pristina institutions’ Assembly,” Radojkovic told Kosovo Online.

He is convinced that Albin Kurti will, by tomorrow, attempt “by any means” to win over the president of the Social Democratic Union (SDU) and MP from the Bosniak community, Duda Balje.

“They will likely try in the next 48 hours to sway Balje, from the Bosniak community, to their side and persuade her—if nothing else—to support the Self-Determination Movement’s candidate for Speaker of the Assembly. But it seems this will not happen. This will lead to a stalemate. Then the question arises whether the opposition can do what Self-Determination cannot—sending a signal to voters and other coalition partners, especially minority communities, that it may be time to assist or support the opposition parties, primarily PDK, LDK, and AAK,” Radojkovic believes.

Asked whether the crisis in forming Kosovo’s parliament is a result of Kurti’s tactics to remain in office as acting Prime Minister for as long as possible, Radojkovic says that the sequence of events so far suggests the opposite—his powerlessness.

“He (Albin Kurti) tried to stay on as Prime Minister in a technical mandate. But even that failed because the opposition forced him to comply with the law, which, incidentally, was passed during his own mandate. In doing so, he essentially dug a hole for himself, not the opposition, and that also reveals a certain degree of weakness,” Radojkovic argues.

He is convinced that this turn of events is only strengthening the opposition.

“With each passing day, the opposition seems to be growing stronger and stronger, sending a clear signal especially to the minority communities that it’s time to stop supporting Self-Determination as they did during the previous term,” Radojkovic adds.

Worst-Case Scenario

For Kosovo Democratic Institute associate Eugen Cakolli, Kosovo has entered the worst possible institutional scenario.

“There are no legal deadlines, which means this situation can continue indefinitely—even though, let’s say, this is the worst-case scenario for Kosovo’s institutions,” Cakolli said in a conversation with Kosovo Online.

He points out that it is telling that the Self-Determination Movement, in requesting another 48 hours for political negotiations, has effectively admitted it lacks a parliamentary majority.

He also warns that a new “institutional problem” has emerged.

“Unfortunately, due to the lack of a named candidate not being submitted into the voting procedure, we will now have such sessions every 48 hours at the latest. That means MPs will be participating in sessions practically every two days. This not only shows that Self-Determination lacks sufficient votes, but unlike the session held two days ago, this time they didn’t even use their exclusive right to nominate a candidate—they merely declared that they still have the same one,” said Cakolli.

He explains that this specific moment could be used by the opposition to appeal to the Constitutional Court.

“If this situation repeats itself, in my opinion, it could be used as grounds for other political parties to file a complaint with the Constitutional Court and try to determine whether someone can continue to exercise their exclusive right without actually nominating a name for the Speaker of the Assembly,” Cakolli believes.

Room for Maneuver

Marko Miskeljin, associate of the Center for Social Stability, has no doubt that the delay in constituting Kosovo’s parliament is part of a tactic—a “time-buying” strategy by the Self-Determination Movement to secure the needed majority for forming a new government.

“All of Self-Determination’s upcoming moves should be interpreted as part of a strategy indicating they lack enough MPs compared to before to independently form a government. They need more room to maneuver and, above all, more time,” Miskeljin told Kosovo Online.

He believes that this is why Albin Kurti is trying by all means to exploit every ambiguity in Kosovo’s laws—especially those concerning the formation of the parliament.

“Everything points to the fact that Self-Determination is buying time. Whether a deal is likely remains uncertain at this point,” Miskeljin clarified.

He suggests that the underlying strategy may be either to secure a majority or to enter new elections while still holding power in a technical mandate.

“Even if they count on all ten MPs from the non-Serb minority communities, they are still short by three votes. That’s not easy to make up, and for that, they need time and more room to maneuver. When we say they want to remain in a technical mandate for as long as possible, that is absolutely certain. Ideally, it would be if they managed to stay in that role until new elections. Because one way the current deadlock over forming a majority in the Assembly might be resolved is through new elections—and that clearly doesn’t suit Self-Determination. However, they would be much more comfortable with that scenario if they were the ones in a technical mandate overseeing the elections,” Miskeljin is convinced.