Pre-election fever in Kosovo: What kind of campaign can we expect?

Everything is ready. In some parties, even the champagne. However, there are not enough glasses for everyone to toast on February 9th. According to Kosovo Online's interviewees, the stakes in the upcoming parliamentary elections are high enough to expect a fierce campaign marked by pronounced nationalist fervor. They warn that heightened tensions, especially in the north, could negatively impact the Serbian community, as well as their participation in the elections and the ten seats guaranteed in the assembly.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

A total of 28 political entities are participating in the parliamentary elections in Kosovo on February 9th: 20 political parties, five coalitions, two civic initiatives, and one independent candidate.

A total of 1,280 candidates are vying for 120 parliamentary seats. Most are from Albanian parties, which are allocated 100 seats in the assembly.

The parties with the greatest chances are those already in the parliament: the ruling Self-Determination Movement, the Democratic League of Kosovo, the Democratic Party of Kosovo, and the coalition around the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo.

Minority communities are allocated 20 seats, ten of which go to the Serbian community.

Alongside the Serb List, five other parties are competing for these seats.

Valmir Elezi, spokesperson for the Central Election Commission, announced that all candidates have passed the final test—a check by the Judicial Council to ensure they are not on any "blacklist."

"The response we received from the Kosovo Judicial Council is that none of the 1,280 candidates from 28 political entities is in violation of this part of the law," said Elezi.

If the "heating up" is anything to go by, our interlocutors claim, this winter will be warm, at least as far as the election campaign is concerned.

This unanimous opinion is shared by both Albanian and Serbian analysts in Kosovo.

Patriotic themes and stakes

Political analyst from Pristina, Artan Muhaxhiri, told Kosovo Online that due to the declining popularity of the ruling Self-Determination, "the stakes" in Kosovo are significant, hence a dirty campaign filled with many populist and pseudo-patriotic themes and accusations is expected.

"It's clear that Prime Minister Kurti and Self-Determination no longer have the power and support of the people they had four years ago. This is naturally because power 'consumes' you, and many promises made four years ago have not been fulfilled. Therefore, a lower percentage of votes is expected on February 9th. However, I think it will be crucial how the opposition parties design their pre-election campaign, how convincing they will be, how much they can gain the trust of the people. They also have a problem because many individuals have been present on the political scene of Kosovo for 20 years, making it difficult for them to build trust," says Muhaxhiri. He assesses that the campaign has already started very harshly and will only get more intense.

"I think the political discourse will be somewhat dirty because the stakes are high. Opposition parties in Kosovo know that Albin Kurti and Self-Determination are losing support and will try to impose this even more," emphasizes Muhaxhiri.

Kurti and Self-Determination will counter this with a sharper political discourse, the analyst believes.

"They will try to preserve the 50 percent support they currently have. Therefore, there will be many personal attacks. I fear there won't be many rational political projects and plans for the citizens of Kosovo, but a lot of populist, pseudo-patriotic themes and accusations about who is a traitor and who loves Kosovo. Therefore, I think it will be a very tough political campaign," stresses Muhaxhiri.

Regarding the Serbian political scene, this analyst believes that no major changes should be expected, and that the Serb List will take the most votes.

"There won't be major changes, although I think it would be very good if there were an alternative to the Serb List. This way, democracy among the Serbian community in Kosovo can develop. However, I think that due to the current structure of the Serb List and the situation, especially because of the events in the last two years, I believe the Serb List will try to politically profit from patriotic emotions and will present itself as the only one capable of defending the Serbian population in Kosovo," Muhaxhiri believes.

Key messages

Even in North Mitrovica, a calm campaign is not expected.

Miodrag Milicevic, executive director of the NGO "Aktiv," believes a turbulent election campaign with many sharp tones follows.

"It is clear that we are facing a quite turbulent period regarding the campaign. However, it is also clear that the campaign will actually be focused towards their own voters and the electorate, generally both Albanian and Serbian parties," Milicevic told Kosovo Online.

"That would not be good for the campaign. It would also not be good to come to mutual accusations or what preceded the campaign, which is the issue of the participation of Serbian political parties, primarily the Serb List, which has all along been seen as an undesirable participant in these elections. Of course, it would be a wrong move not only regarding the Serb List but generally thinking in terms of excluding any political party from the process, provided, of course, that all of them meet the technical prerequisites prescribed by law and election rules," emphasizes Milicevic.

He expects that the political campaign of all participants should focus more on the needs of the citizens and what will be the new policy in the future.

Regarding the majority parties, he believes that Self-Determination will try to secure 50 percent support as they did four years ago.

"That was even announced at the last congress of Self-Determination. However, according to the latest data, it seems that this will not be the case because the drop in support is very evident. Of course, other parties are waiting and looking for their chance, here I mean the Democratic Party of Kosovo and of course the other, the Democratic League of Kosovo. These are the two largest Albanian parties that are also looking for their chance to possibly seek an opportunity after the elections, namely to use the opportunity to form a government through a mutual coalition," assesses Milicevic. When it comes to the Serbian block, he says that the dose of pluralism that has been absent so far is encouraging.

"At this moment, we can state that we have some degree of pluralism that has always been missing in the Serbian community. But on the other hand, I am sure we face a negative campaign. I cannot expect anything truly more positive, considering of course everything that has previously happened in the last two years, especially after the withdrawal, leaving the institutions by the Serbs and Serbian parties," the analyst believes.

He does not exclude the possibility that the harsh campaign will be accompanied by friction at the level of Belgrade and Pristina, as well as problems around the voting of Serbs who are not in Kosovo.

"It is expected that both sides will secure as broad a front of support among the electorate as possible. But, likewise, friction at the level of Belgrade and Pristina is expected when it comes to the electorate that gravitates outside the territory of Kosovo and which certainly, if Serbia does not enable it, will not be able to participate directly in the voting," concludes Milicevic.

Analysts from Belgrade share this opinion, but also warn that the Serbian community could find itself at the center of focus of Albanian pre-election conflicts.

"For" and "against"

Well-versed in Kosovo's political confusion, political scientist Ognjen Gogic evaluates for Kosovo Online that the pre-election campaign in Kosovo will take place in the realm of "for" and "against" the current Prime Minister Albin Kurti.

"The election campaign in Kosovo will be focused on the personality of Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti as a central theme, and there is actually a polarization among the majority parties into 'for' and 'against' Kurti. The same applies to the Serbian community because here too, the main topic is the Government of Kosovo's policy towards Serbs led by Albin Kurti. Thus, everyone declares their stance on his policy, and he has successfully placed himself at the center of the campaign," says Gogic.

He believes that the focus of the pre-election campaign of the ruling Self-Determination Movement will be on the relationship with Serbs and Serbia, as well as dialogue.

"They portray themselves as someone who has dealt more successfully with Serbia and the Serbs and has managed to establish some things that their predecessors did not, such as allegedly bringing the north under Pristina's control and eliminating Serbia's presence in Kosovo in another way," emphasizes Gogic.

On the other hand, opposition parties will try to point out the damage that the current regime of Albin Kurti has produced in relation to the international community.

"They primarily point out the anti-Americanism that Kurti encourages, which they consider very harmful to Kosovo's future and Kosovo's relations with the international community. This refers to the main opposition parties DSK, DPK, and ABK," says Gogic.

Analyzing the current course of the campaign, this analyst says that the Democratic League of Kosovo, compared to other parties, is trying to focus more on life issues, particularly the problem of unemployment.

"However, all these issues remain overshadowed by much larger topics - relations with Serbia and the Serbs and relations with the international community. Whenever the opposition points out the extent to which Kurti has damaged Kosovo's relations with the USA, he always responds that he did so because he did not want to give in to Serbia and the Serbs. This actually leads us to a situation where the opposition does not have a real answer," highlights Gogic.

He assesses that, when it comes to the Serbian sides, the situation will be much more dynamic than usual because there are five opposition groups opposite the Serb List.

"Generally, in Serbian communities, the campaign is more conducted on the ground, or from 'ear to ear,' it's more about personal contact among people, but of course, it also reaches the media where severe accusations are made against each other. It is clear to everyone that the position of Serbs has dramatically worsened over the last three years and then there is room for seeking blame, but also for seeking alternatives. So, there is actually a debate here about what different actions can be taken and whether a different response can be made to these unilateral actions of Pristina to stop this trend of deteriorating the position of Serbs in Kosovo. However, the campaign has so far started very harshly as if the Serbian actors do not realize that they are all in the same boat, and that this boat is starting to sink," concludes Gogic.

Intensification of tensions

Collaborator at the Center for Social Stability Marko Miskeljin has no doubt that an intense pre-election campaign should be expected in Kosovo, in which the current administration will seek votes amid constant tensions. At the same time, he expects the Serbian parties participating to show unity.

"Unfortunately, given the situation we are in and the level of tensions we are currently experiencing, we can expect an intense campaign, and this is what has been shown to us so far. When talking about the participation of Serbs and the performance of the Serb List, it is certainly good that the fight continues in a democratic manner and that once again the Serbian desire for peace and peaceful coexistence is demonstrated," Miskeljin evaluates for Kosovo Online. He says it remains to be seen whether attacks on the Serbian community will intensify during the campaign or will be halted.

"I fear that, having learned from previous campaigns, we cannot expect any major de-escalation because, unfortunately, it is in these constant tensions and escalations that the Pristina administration seeks its votes," Miskeljin emphasizes.

Regardless of the fact that the focus of political coalitions and parties in the upcoming parliamentary elections should be on improving the living standards of citizens, he doubts the campaign will head in that direction.

"It seems to me that the focus will again primarily be on the Community of Serbian Municipalities, that the focus will again be on all the events we have had over the past two years, culminating in what can practically be called a 'False Flag' operation, considering the reactions we had from the EU and other places. It seems to me that this will once again be primarily the focus of the Albanian side, especially those who receive the majority of votes," the analyst says.

On the other hand, he is convinced that the focus of Serbian parties will be on attempting to demonstrate unity, but also on the unequal treatment.

"I believe that the focus will primarily be on demonstrating unity and highlighting the truly abnormal amount of human rights violations that have been carried out in recent years by the Pristina administration," thinks Miskeljin.

He adds that one should expect obstructions from Pristina, especially regarding the pre-election campaign of the Serb List.

"I certainly expect that every possible way will be used to hinder the campaign primarily of the Serb List, but also of all Serbs who want to participate within the democratic process, as we have seen during previous election cycles. Unfortunately, we have had, and I fear, will have now," emphasizes Miskeljin.

He is convinced that despite everything, the Serbian parties, especially the Serb List, will achieve a good electoral result in order to continue the fight for the rights of the Serbian community through institutions.

"I primarily expect a good electoral result and then later a fight through institutions. The impact of Serbian votes and representatives of Serbs within the future parliament will of course depend on the other results, but more on that later. For now, it is very important to achieve a good result and to demonstrate unity," concludes Miskeljin.