Who among the new EU officials will be key for relations between Belgrade and Pristina?

The European Union's new administrative mosaic is close to its final form. The European Parliament could vote on the composition of the European Commission in the last week of November, with Ursula von der Leyen, well-known to both Belgrade and Pristina, set to lead for another five years. Besides this German figure, Brussels' policy on the dialogue will also be shaped—more or less—by Estonia’s Kaja Kallas and Slovenia’s Marta Kos, if their candidacies for EC portfolios are confirmed.

By: Dušica Radeka Đorđevic

The European Parliament's commissioner candidate hearings conclude today. Kos, a candidate for the EU Enlargement Commissioner, completed her hearing on November 7, when she partially revealed her cards. She stressed the need for progress in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue.

"If things aren’t working, new approaches must be found," Kos said, expressing willingness to collaborate with Kallas regarding the dialogue.

Kallas is also open to cooperation. As the candidate for EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, she stated in her hearing today that she would work hand-in-hand with the Enlargement Commissioner to achieve results on EU enlargement, which she described as a "geostrategic investment in the EU's interest." Speaking about the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, she noted that all her predecessors invested much time in the process to bring stability to the region.

Since normalization of relations is an essential condition for both Pristina and Belgrade on their European paths, the influence of the Kallas-Kos duo on these processes will be mutual.

Slobodan Zecevic, director of the Institute for European Studies in Belgrade, assesses that both Kaja Kallas and Marta Kos will be important for the further progress in normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina. However, he notes that the overall tone of the EC will be set by its president, Ursula von der Leyen.

"As for relations with Serbia and Kosovo, Kaja Kallas and Marta Kos must act in coordination with the EC President Ursula von der Leyen. The President of the European Commission has greater powers and influence on commission policies and can replace or oppose the selection of individual commissioners, meaning there’s a certain hierarchical discipline within the commission that wasn’t there before," Zecevic told Kosovo Online.

He added that while he doesn’t underestimate the significance of Kallas and Kos, the President of the European Commission wields considerable influence, and the United States, as a kind of elder sibling to the EU, also plays a crucial role in the development of the situation in Kosovo.

"Kaja Kallas comes from a country with a negative stance towards Russia, and we are often associated with Russia, so we’ll see what her attitude towards us will be. Both Estonia and Slovenia have recognized Kosovo’s independence, and that stance is clear. However, the U.S. stance towards us and our Kosovo issue could heavily influence them, regardless of this fact. Ultimately, both of them are important. In the EU, however, the entire tone is set by the President of the Commission, and there’s also the U.S., which leads Western policy towards us and so-called Kosovo. The attitude of the entire Western alliance essentially dictates the European Commission’s stance towards us and these two politicians' approach to the Kosovo issue," concludes Zecevic.

Another question is whether the position of the EU Special Representative for the dialogue, currently held by Miroslav Lajcak, will be abolished or if Lajcak will have a successor.

If the dialogue format were to revert to one where the EU High Representatives for Foreign Affairs, like Catherine Ashton and Federica Mogherini, were directly involved as mediators, it would signal that this process is highly significant for the European Union, says Milan Krstic, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade.

"There is also the possibility of continuing the practice of appointing mediators who will handle the dialogue on the ground, and this doesn’t significantly alter the essence politically," Krstic says.

He adds that the Enlargement Commissioner certainly influences EU policy towards candidate countries for membership, which in this context plays a role in shaping Brussels’ policy towards the region and, consequently, the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

"But the European Union has separate mediation, a distinct mediation team that directly handles the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, so these are separate processes, although they should not be viewed as strictly separated by barriers, as everything flows from one to the other. The EU's general policy towards the region and its enlargement policy affect progress in the dialogue, and progress in the dialogue is one of the conditions for advancing on the path to EU membership," Krstic emphasizes.

Analyst from Pristina, Artan Muhaxhiri, believes that specific names in the future Brussels administration will not significantly impact the dialogue, as the EU has a very strict structure, and all frameworks and goals regarding the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue are already set.

"It really doesn't matter who will be the commissioner or the person responsible for the dialogue because the directions previously established will be followed," Muhaxhiri says for Kosovo Online.

He adds that no individual can divert or create an alternative path in the dialogue from the one already established.

"Everything will move towards respecting the agreements from Brussels and Ohrid," he adds.

In his opinion, the candidate for Enlargement Commissioner, Marta Kos, is a "very interesting politician," and since she is from Slovenia, he believes that Kos might have more insight into the context of the dialogue.

"However, she cannot act as she wishes. She will have to operate within the rules, regulations, and all requirements set so far. Therefore, I really don't think that the names in the future Brussels administration will have any significance," Muhaxhiri concludes.