Why neither Serbs nor Albanians believe in the Belgrade-Pristina Agreement

Source: UNDP

Author: Arsenije Vuckovic

Data from the latest UNDP research "Pulse of the Public" shows that only slightly more than ten percent of Kosovo's citizens are absolutely convinced that the Belgrade-Pristina agreement on normalizing relations will positively affect their lives. At the same time, only one in four Serbs from Kosovo has a positive view of the possible agreement. According to Kosovo Online interlocutors, the results of this research are not surprising and indicate a clear deadlock in the dialogue.

The UNDP research, supported by USAID, was conducted from April 17 to May 7 on a representative sample of 1,306 respondents over the age of 18. The survey included 896 Albanians, 210 Serbs, and 200 members of other Kosovo communities (Ashkali, Bosniaks, Egyptians, Gorani, Roma, and Turks).

According to the research data, a total of 10.9 percent, or 40.9 percent of respondents "completely believe" and "believe" that the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia will positively impact the lives of people in Kosovo. The number of "believers" is significantly lower compared to data from November last year when 16 and 42.9 percent of respondents were optimistic in both categories.

Compared to 2023, there is a higher percentage of those who believe that this agreement "will somewhat have a positive effect," now at 33.1 percent (previously 22.8 percent). At the same time, 10.2 and 1.7 percent of respondents believe that the agreement between Belgrade and Pristina "will not" or "will not at all" positively affect their lives. Slightly more than three percent of respondents said they did not know the answer to this question.

Data broken down by ethnicity showed that 52.9 percent of Albanians and 51.6 percent of other communities have a positive view of the Agreement, compared to 25.7 percent of Serbs. Asked to what extent they believe the agreement will help Kosovo on its path to the EU, 50.6 percent of respondents fully believe in this possibility, 35.8 percent believe it will "partially help in that process," and 10.3 percent do not believe in it at all.

Ethnically segmented data also shows that Albanians (50.9 percent) and other communities (45.8 percent) are more optimistic than Serbs (24.8 percent) that the Agreement will help Kosovo on its path to the EU.

Dialogue or Conflict Management

Marko Savkovic, Senior Advisor at the ISAK Fund, told Kosovo Online that both Serbs and Albanians have lost confidence in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue process because there has been no progress for a long time and because it has turned into "conflict management," with the Serbian community further frustrated by the aggressive policies of Albin Kurti's government and imposed solutions.

“There have been no tangible results for a long time. Solutions are imposed, primarily from Pristina, and then compromise solutions are sought as much as possible in Brussels, with some intervention from European negotiators. Citizens do not feel that they are participating; they are quite far from the political process. In recent years, with the change of policy, a more aggressive policy coming from Mr. Kurti's government, it seems that there is less and less maneuvering space for representatives of the Serbian community, and even for Belgrade. When I say solutions are imposed, I mean that this is what distances citizens from the dialogue process and raises doubts about its outcome, that the agreement will help them feel safer, be included, and that a solution will be reached that would satisfy both the legitimate interests of Serbia in Kosovo and some aspirations of the Kosovo side,” Savkovic emphasized.

Savkovic says that the UNDP survey results, especially regarding the Serbian community, are not surprising to him.

"Certainly, such low support among the Serbian community is not surprising. Perhaps a bit surprising is the significant support exceeding 50 percent among representatives of the Albanian community. This is surprising considering the extent of resistance to the idea of the Community, which has always been viewed by Serbia as a central part of the Agreement," says Savkovic.

He adds that for Kosovo, an additional problem is that this survey shows that citizens are constantly facing the same issues.

"The other findings of this survey, traditionally conducted every two years, show that the problems are always the same. These are poverty, lack of economic prospects, and interestingly, to a lesser extent, at least regarding the majority Albanian community, fear for personal safety. This fear is much more pronounced, which is again somewhat expected, among representatives of the Serbian community," observes Savkovic.

Commenting on the fact that only 25 percent of Serbs from Kosovo stated that they have confidence in the dialogue process, this expert says that, although these results are not surprising, they indicate that this process can be more accurately described as "conflict management" rather than dialogue.

"I would even say that 25 percent is a good result because the message is constantly being sent that the dialogue is in crisis. From the beginning, for years back, the image has been that it is a difficult, arduous process where one side loses something, and the other side gains something. Somehow, no matter how much public attention is needed, it seems that a good relationship has not been built with the public. There is a lack of transparency. Now, there is always that call to give negotiators space to negotiate. But somehow, now it seems more like managing conflict. This is an expression that can often be heard," emphasizes Savkovic.

He sees the mistrust of Serbs primarily in the fact that Pristina does nothing to build trust concerning the Serbian community.

"Many opportunities have been missed for such things. I think the mistrust is significant," emphasizes Savkovic.

The question, he emphasizes, is whether this will change because Albin Kurti will have a key role in the next government.

"This is a policy that leaves little room for Serbs to participate in political life. They have problems in relations with representatives of the Serbian List, which has lost a lot in the processes we have had over the past year or slightly longer. But there is always the possibility that things will start anew. It depends on the good will of the negotiators and the broader context, which at this moment may not be so favorable. The only small hope might be, but now it depends on which angle you look at it, to get a new president in the USA who would be interested in initiating the process. However, I think that hope is quite small," says Savkovic.

According to him, this is also a key reason for the mistrust in the dialogue.

Political goals and life

However, for political analyst Blerim Canaj, the main sources of citizens' mistrust in the dialogue and normalization of relations are Belgrade and Pristina.

"I think our government needs to talk to the Serbs who live here. It’s not so important what Vucic or those in Serbia think, or what the media reports there, but it’s important to see how the Serbs who live here in Kosovo live and what they think. Sometimes I feel that neither Vucic nor Kurti really care much about the Serbian people here in Kosovo, but they need them only for their political goals. For example, when Kurti needs something, something happens in the north, or if Vucic needs something when he has problems in Serbia, something happens in the north again," says Canaj.

According to him, this is also a key reason for the mistrust in the dialogue.

"People have started to notice this, and naturally, they will lose trust in the dialogue. I think the Albanian side has begun to not pay much attention to these things, while on the other side, you have Serbian media bombarding with information about all sorts of things happening in Kosovo. Tell a Serb who has never been to Kosovo that you came to Pristina and are giving an interview. How much will they believe you? There is this illusion that Serbs in Kosovo can't do anything, that there is some sort of repression here," concludes Canaj.

EU's Responsibility

On the other hand, for Marko Miskeljin, a researcher at the Center for Social Stability, the key problem of Kosovo citizens' mistrust in the continuation and outcome of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue lies in the lack of will of the European Union as a guarantor in implementing what has been agreed.

"Primarily, there is no will from those who are guarantors to uncompromisingly implement what has been agreed upon by both sides. From the very beginning, it is evident that the Brussels Agreement is being selectively implemented by the Albanian side and that this is tolerated by the European Union, which, let's not forget, is the guarantor of that agreement with its signature," Miskeljin told Kosovo Online.

This, he emphasizes, is also the key reason why both Serbs and Albanians do not believe in the dialogue.

"The reason for the low confidence of Serbs in the implementation of the agreement is again the lack of results. There is a lack of pressure on the Albanian side, on the Pristina administration. There are no concrete steps and positions on what will happen if the Brussels Agreement is not implemented. One side is using this to stall, which is obviously what the Pristina administration is doing. On the other hand, the Serbian people in Kosovo see this. They see that there are no concrete results from what has been agreed upon, from what should be respected," says Miskeljin.

He adds that these are the key reasons for the mistrust of Serbs in the dialogue process and that the solution is possible only if the EU changes its stance and increases pressure on Pristina to stop escalating tensions.

"These results should not surprise us. As for changing the stance, there needs to be a concrete change on the ground and increased pressure on the Pristina administration to, first and foremost, stop escalating tensions. Since the beginning of Kurti's second government, we have had a new crisis every few months that did not elicit a response from the European Union, which is the guarantor of that agreement. As long as that is lacking, it is hardly surprising that the Serbian people are mistrustful," emphasizes Miskeljin.

Inflammatory Rhetoric and Consequences

What do Serbs from Kosovo think?

Historian Aleksandar Gudzic from Gracanica believes that the root of the problem lies in Pristina and the inflammatory rhetoric of the Albanian political elites, which consistently leads to negative consequences for the Serbian community.

He describes the authorities in Pristina as "champions of violating international agreements" and the basic rights of Serbs in Kosovo.

"Experience has shown that all agreements and accords signed between Belgrade and Pristina have ultimately remained dead letters on paper. Neither side has shown a willingness to honor these agreements. For years, Pristina has proven to be a champion in violating international agreements and accords, failing to fulfill its obligations. Who today remembers those commitments that Pristina made earlier through the Brussels agreements and accords?" Gudzic told Kosovo Online.

He adds that the formation of the Association of Serbian Municipalities is no longer mentioned in the Albanian media, and for the political elites in Pristina, it is considered equivalent to a non-governmental organization without any rights or jurisdiction.

"The obligations and agreements that the majority side, the Albanian side, took upon themselves have not been fulfilled. Serbs witness violations of their rights at every turn, from language use, positive discrimination, and the obligation of the majority population to employ a certain percentage of Serbs. This is not respected at all. Therefore, Serbs do not trust any agreements or commitments that Pristina would take upon themselves," emphasizes Gudzic.

Commenting on the UNDP survey results and the small percentage of Serbs who believe that an agreement on normalizing relations could enable them to live a more normal life, Gudzic says the reasons should be sought in the inflammatory rhetoric of Prime Minister Albin Kurti.

"Albin Kurti's inflammatory rhetoric creates incidents on the ground and from time to time leads to interethnic incidents. The media takes advantage of this opportunity and covers it, which causes insecurity and discomfort among Serbs. Last year, when there was a conflict between Serbs and Kosovo police in Mitrovica, the Albanian media reported it, and it immediately reflected on the relations between Serbs and Albanians, leading to frequent provocations," explains Gudzic.

He says that he himself has been targeted just for driving a car with Serbian license plates, but he warns that provocations occur even without a clear reason.

"This causes discomfort and Serbs feel unsafe. If you will, Serbs have been living for the past 20 years with the knowledge that the March Pogrom could happen again and that they could experience the same fate they did in 2004," Gudzic explains.