Avdijaj: Declining unemployment in the region does not necessarily reflect real economic development

Besnik Avdijaj, an economist from Pristina, stated that the decline in unemployment rates across the Western Balkans does not necessarily reflect genuine economic development. He emphasized that the overall picture is far less optimistic when considering migration trends and the structural weaknesses of the region’s economies.

“Employment is improving across the Western Balkans, but the region still lags behind the EU average in many key indicators. During periods of slowed economic growth, a declining unemployment rate does not automatically imply actual economic progress. When these figures are compared with migration trends and the structural shortcomings of regional economies, the picture becomes even less optimistic,” Avdijaj told Kosovo Online.

Commenting on the European Commission’s report on the Western Balkans and Turkey, which notes that the region is seeing “historically low unemployment levels,” Avdijaj stressed that the data must be interpreted with caution.

He pointed out that many reports identify youth and women as the most vulnerable groups in terms of employment.

“Numerous studies show that vulnerable groups—such as young people and women—have higher unemployment rates and lower participation in the active labor force. Full-time workers fare better in sectors like domestic services, construction, and certain manufacturing industries. Rural areas still lag behind urban centers in access to jobs, and people with lower qualifications are more exposed to mismatches between labor market supply and demand,” Avdijaj explained.

He emphasized that labor market trends are closely tied to global economic shifts, which is why demand for IT-related professions has grown significantly in recent decades.

“Due to aging populations and low birth rates, demand for healthcare professionals is expected to increase. The construction sector and real estate market are currently booming, but it remains uncertain how sustainable that growth will be, given rising prices and the shrinking availability of interested workers. As a result, many companies are turning to more distant countries in search of cheaper labor,” the economist said.

He added that tourism and hospitality are becoming increasingly profitable sectors, particularly in coastal countries like Albania and Montenegro, making them attractive to both entrepreneurs and workers.

Avdijaj warned that “due to the mismatch between skills and market needs,” many sectors are undergoing transformation, leading to more frequent retraining and upskilling for new occupations.

He noted that this trend is increasingly visible even within companies, as they seek to “adapt their workforce to new demands.”

While there are no precise data yet on labor migration during the current summer season, Avdijaj said that “economic trends point to increased activity across all sectors, especially in tourism and hospitality.”

“Overall migration trends show a strong desire among the workforce to relocate to more developed European economies in search of a better standard of living. The most attractive destinations include Germany, Switzerland, Austria, France, Italy, the Scandinavian countries, and closer countries like Croatia and Slovenia,” Avdijaj concluded.