Misini: Reduction in German quota will not stop workers from leaving Kosovo

Pristina-based economics professor Shkumbin Misini told Kosovo Online that Germany’s reduction of the annual quota for workers from the Western Balkans from 50,000 to 25,000 would not stop workers from leaving the region. He warned that the reasons for emigration went beyond employment and salary levels and that Kosovo and other Western Balkan countries could face increasingly severe labor shortages in the coming years, forcing them to recruit workers from abroad.

The departure of workers from Kosovo and other Western Balkan countries in recent years has contributed to a decline in unemployment, but at the same time has reduced the number of people available to domestic economies, Professor Misini assessed.

“Labor market trends over the past five years throughout the Western Balkans have led to a reduction in Kosovo’s workforce. This has also resulted in lower unemployment rates in the countries of the region. However, I believe other factors will also have an impact, because there is a strong desire among people to leave the Western Balkan countries due to dissatisfaction with conditions in their countries and uncertainty about the way they are governed,” Misini told Kosovo Online.

According to him, the decision to leave is determined not only by employment opportunities and salary levels, but also by quality of life, children’s future, healthcare and a sense of security.

“The key factors are not only unemployment and jobs, but also decent wages. People leave in search of a better life, for the sake of their children and healthcare security. Geopolitical security is also important, and that has been called into question in the Western Balkan countries,” Misini stressed.

For that reason, he believes the reduction in Germany’s quota will not halt the existing emigration trend. He particularly pointed to skilled trades in high demand, whose workers can also find employment in other European markets.

“The desire among Kosovo citizens to leave is very strong, particularly among those in skilled occupations, such as electricians, plumbers, construction workers and similar professions. The very fact that a restriction is being introduced shows that demand among citizens wishing to leave remains high,” he said.

Misini cited other countries seeking workers from the Western Balkans as one possible alternative for those unable to move to Germany.

“Opportunities to leave are not limited to Germany, but also exist in other countries, such as Croatia. Croatia does not impose an age limit and is eager to receive workers from Western Balkan countries,” the Pristina-based professor said.

Misini warned that unless policies and governance in the countries of the region changed, emigration could increasingly include people for whom income was not the main concern, but who were instead worried about security and healthcare.

“What I fear is that, unless the policies of Western Balkan countries and the way they are governed change, even people for whom salary is not a problem will begin to leave because they are concerned about insecurity and healthcare. They fear that in the near future they will not have stability in their own country, either in terms of national security or healthcare,” Misini said.

He identified the departure of highly educated and qualified people as one of the greatest risks, as it would make filling vacancies even more difficult in countries already facing a shrinking available workforce.

“The greatest risk is that, in the very near future, highly qualified and skilled people will also leave,” Misini warned.

He believes that, as a result of such developments, Western Balkan countries could increasingly turn to recruiting workers from other parts of the world. Referring to a World Bank report, he said that the region’s need for foreign workers was expected to increase significantly.

“According to a World Bank report, the Western Balkans are projected to bring in more than 50,000 workers from other parts of the world by 2028 because of labor shortages,” he said.

Misini singled out Albania and Montenegro as examples of countries where the need for foreign workers was already evident. He added that during the summer season there was strong demand for workers in those countries, including workers from Kosovo.

“I think that over the next three to five years we will be importing workers from other countries because Kosovo will face a labor shortage,” Misini concluded.

Germany has announced that, as of January 1, 2027, it will halve the annual quota for workers from the Western Balkans, from the current 50,000 to 25,000. The measure applies to Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Albania.