Gogic: The Serb List confirmed the support of the people, Kosovo is entering political instability

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic emphasized that the Serb List has reaffirmed its support among the people but should be "moderately satisfied" with the results due to lower Serbian voter turnout. He also pointed out that, in the coming period, Kosovo is likely to face political instability and calculations due to reduced support for the Self-Determination Movement, led by Albin Kurti.

According to Gogic, if the Serb List has secured all ten mandates, this does not represent a change but rather a confirmation of its existing support.

However, he notes that Serbian voter turnout in this election was lower than in previous ones.

"The Serb List has declared victory and claimed all ten mandates, but we still do not have the final election results. There is a possibility that one mandate could go to the opposition party of Nenad Rasic. Until all votes are counted, we won’t know for sure. If we assume that the Serb List has indeed won ten mandates, as they claim, this does not represent a change since they had the same result in the previous elections. It only confirms that they have maintained their support. However, we must acknowledge that Serbian voter turnout has decreased. Perhaps this is the key issue we should be discussing. The real question is: despite the participation of Serbs from central Serbia, where are the Serbs living in Kosovo, how engaged and interested are they in politics, that is what is concerning," Gogic stated.

According to him, if Serbian turnout remains low in the upcoming local elections in the fall, there is a real possibility that Serbs could lose power in certain Serbian-majority municipalities.

"When we analyze the results at the municipal level, the outlook is not encouraging. If this scenario repeats in the local elections in the fall, there is a very real chance of losing control in Serbian-majority municipalities. If Serbs remain divided while Albanian, Bosniak, and Roma parties mobilize their supporters, unpleasant surprises could occur in municipalities like Gracanica, Novo Brdo, Klokot, and North Mitrovica. That is why the results should be viewed with moderate satisfaction because some trends are concerning," he added.

Gogic also points out that the Serb List has many questions to answer in the coming period, particularly regarding its stance on Kosovo’s institutions and potential cooperation with Albanian parties.

"One of the key unanswered questions during the campaign was the Serb List’s position toward Kosovo’s institutions. Previously, they held all ten mandates and had a minister in the government, but at one point, they withdrew from these institutions. Now, we don’t know if they will return to parliamentary life or continue their boycott. Will they be willing to form a coalition with Albanian parties? Will they appoint a minister to the government, as is both a constitutional right and obligation, or will they refuse? Another possibility is the formation of a new parliamentary majority that would push Kurti into the opposition. These are all issues that need to be resolved in the coming days to determine the true impact of the Serb List’s victory," Gogic stated.

When it comes to the results of the Albanian parties, Gogic points out that there are three takeaways.

"First, the Self-Determination Movement is the winner of these elections. Second, the Self-Determination did not repeat the success of the previous elections, as there is a clear decline in support. Third, the period of parliamentary stability is behind us. Given the circumstances, forming a parliamentary majority will not be easy, nor will it be easy to maintain. Therefore, it is very likely, as is already being discussed, that we will have a repeat election. It should be kept in mind that in the next elections, the president of Kosovo will also be elected, which requires a two-thirds majority. The parliamentary majority that is formed now must take this into account. Otherwise, the parliament will be dissolved," Gogic said.

He emphasizes that a period of political instability and calculations lies ahead and that two scenarios are possible.

"The first is that Self-Determination becomes the backbone of the new government, for which they only need the support of non-majority community parties other than the Serbian community, which they currently have. The second is that the Self-Determination enters a coalition with one of the Albanian parties, which is unlikely because there is great animosity towards them. The third option, which is also unlikely, is that all other parties form a government, leaving Self-Determination in the opposition. This scenario could materialize if it receives support from Western embassies, but it does not guarantee stability. Kosovo has had such periods before, with coalitions that fell apart. Therefore, there is a risk that in new elections, Kurti could return even stronger," he said.

According to him, a coalition that would be unstable would quickly collapse, and in new elections, Kurti would return even stronger.

"It is more likely that Kurti will be allowed to form a new government because this may actually be the best outcome for everyone. If Kurti secures another mandate and the downward trend in his support continues, a more stable government could follow later. Rushing to create a short-lived anti-Kurti coalition now could only serve to bring him back stronger," Gogic concluded.