BILDing the Future

Written for Kosovo Online by Muharem Bazdulj

The claim that Donald Trump and his closest associates are making tectonic shifts in global (geo)politics within the first weeks of his mandate has already become a cliché. It was anticipated between the election and the inauguration, but the changes have begun unfolding faster and more decisively than expected. Naturally, Ukraine and Palestine are at the center of attention, but it is already evident that his new vision encompasses the entire world.

The German tabloid Bild is not a benchmark of reliability, but as the most widely circulated daily newspaper in the most populous EU country, it would not be wise to completely ignore the announcements and information it publishes. Just last week, this newspaper reported that there is significant concern in many parts of Europe regarding U.S.-Russia negotiations and the potential withdrawal of American troops from certain parts of Europe, including Kosovo.

"Italy is preparing for a possible withdrawal of U.S. troops from Kosovo. In that case, European allies would be left alone in the Balkans against Putin’s friend Aleksandar Vucic and his powerful Serbian army," Bild reported.

According to German media, Western security services and politicians fear that negotiations, which began last Tuesday in Riyadh, could lead to the end of the U.S. military presence in large parts of Europe. As Bild writes, the only American bases not currently under discussion are those in Ramstein, Germany, and the Air Force bases in the United Kingdom. The rest of Europe should brace for profound changes if Trump and Putin reach an agreement, the article concludes.

According to NATO's official website, Italy has the highest number of troops in KFOR, a total of 1,258, followed by the United States with 602.

Human lives and history, of course, follow different rhythms. When, at the end of the 19th century, Theodor Herzl—then close to his forties—predicted that a Jewish state would be established within the next fifty years, he knew it was unlikely he would live to see it. As it turned out, he died young, just two months after his 44th birthday, but his prediction about the creation of Israel was remarkably accurate.

A true politician and statesman is recognized primarily by their ability to distinguish between the transient and the lasting. In an insightful political essay, Stanko Cerovic wrote:

"Everyone saw De Gaulle as a great man, but a romantic—somewhat of a dreamer who disliked America for personal reasons while also underestimating the threat of communism and the Soviet Union. But, of course, everyone else was the dreamer, and only De Gaulle was truly attuned to historical reality. He argued: the Soviet Union is neither a real threat nor a lasting power; communism is a transient phenomenon (an illusion); the only reality is Russia and the Russian people, with whom we should maintain relations as always, waiting for circumstances to change. And the greatest danger to humanity is the unparalleled American power that recognizes no boundaries and the modern liberal system that can destroy civilization."

At the end of the last century, Americans began "betting" on Albanians in the context of the Western Balkans. There were several reasons for this: from their predominantly pro-American stance to demographic trends, as it once seemed that Albanians could become the most numerous ethnic group in the region within a few decades. Based on this perspective, the U.S. endorsed Kosovo's independence—despite international law. Those unaware of the constant shifts in global dynamics assumed this was a permanent trajectory of historical forces. However, something entirely different occurred. Due to both massive emigration and cultural shifts—especially concerning women's societal roles—birth rates among Albanians in both Kosovo and Albania have nearly equalized with those of the surrounding South Slavic populations.

In this context, the accuracy of Bild’s report at this moment is not even particularly important. What is evident, however, is that the global situation is shifting and that the broad Western consensus on Kosovo’s independence has passed its peak. If Serbia managed to withstand pressure ten or fifteen years ago, resisting it now should be significantly easier. The balance of world power has changed, and—as in Bob Dylan's famous song—it is becoming possible that the last shall soon be first. And this is no longer just speculation; it is something rapidly turning into reality.

Political plans for the future should be based on this new reality.