Dialogue at a crossroads or a new status quo: What to expect from Lajcak's Successor?

With the mandate of Miroslav Lajcak set to expire on January 31 after nearly five years of mediating the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, Kaja Kalas, must appoint his successor by the end of January. It is almost certain that, unlike Lajcak, the new negotiator will be from a country that has recognized Kosovo, with Danish diplomat Peter Sorensen being the most likely candidate. While opinions vary on how his selection will affect the course of the dialogue, Kosovo Online's interlocutors agree on one thing: whoever the envoy may be, they will inherit a "hot potato" and face challenges that are not easily resolved.

By: Petar Rosic

Among the names most mentioned as Lajcak's successors are former Finnish Foreign Minister Peka Havisto and Dane Peter Sorensen.

Former Slovenian President Borut Pahor was also previously considered a potential candidate but has stated he will not run, citing several factors including disagreements with the EU's official enlargement policy.

Meanwhile, Finnish media reported that Havisto is in the process of securing an important position at the United Nations related to the Middle East, leaving Sorensen as the likely candidate.

Sorensen has extensive experience in the Western Balkans, having been the EU's special representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and previously served in Pristina as part of the UNMIK mission, as well as in Belgrade where he was the personal representative of then EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security in Belgrade, Javier Solana from 2009 to 2011.

However, what is already certain is that the new envoy will deal exclusively with the issue of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, unlike Lajcak, who also covered other regional issues. Aleksandar Sljuka from the NGO "New Social Initiative" assesses that such a decision was made primarily due to a significant deadlock in the dialogue.

"What is significant about the selection of the new special envoy is primarily that he will now probably be a special envoy only for Kosovo, not for the entire Western Balkans region. I think this is primarily because the EU now wants to focus his job exclusively on the dialogue and to deal only with that as we have seen that the dialogue has had major problems in recent years," Sljuka told Kosovo Online.

He reminds us that there was speculation that EU High Representative Kaja Kalas might take direct control of the dialogue, but that seems not to happen.

"That was a signal to me that, given all these crises, some more decisive leadership of the dialogue was necessary and that it might be the solution. Now we see that the European Union has abandoned that approach, probably because they believe there are many other more significant problems," our interlocutor explained.

Sljuka assesses that the mere choice of Sorensen, or any other envoy, will not drastically change the course of the dialogue, given that the role of the special envoy within the EU is very limited.

"His role, his mandate, does not carry great autonomy in his work, so he cannot decide on these matters without consulting all the relevant facts within the European Union. The EU is an extremely complex organization, where we have various actors, from the European Commission to the European Council. There are many different interests, and it is simply impossible to expect that an individual, even if he were the best in the world, could solve such a crisis on his own," the analyst said.

Regarding Sorensen and his origins, Sljuka believes that this will not necessarily mean that he will be more favorable to Pristina.

"If we look from the perspective that he comes from a recognizing country, it can be said that he will be more favorable to Kosovo. However, what is now interesting is precisely the position of Denmark and the current dispute over Greenland which could potentially have with America and the issue of territorial integrity that is being raised again," the analyst emphasized.

He adds that Denmark might change its approach towards Kosovo due to this situation.

"I don't think they will recognize Kosovo, but I believe that the fact that Sorensen comes from a recognizing country, by itself, will not mean that he will be favorable to Kosovo. After all, none of them should be favorable to one side or the other," Sljuka emphasized.

Stefan Vladisavljev, Program Coordinator at the BFPE Foundation for a Responsible Society, agrees with him. He told Kosovo Online that for the future of the dialogue, it is not important whether the envoy comes from a country that recognizes or does not recognize Kosovo's independence, but rather that the crucial factor is the political will of Belgrade and Pristina to participate in the process.

"We have Lajcak from Slovakia, from a country that does not recognize Kosovo. Before that, we had Federica Mogherini and Catherine Ashton from countries that recognize Kosovo's independence. The dialogue has moved—or not moved—depending on political will, so where the diplomats come from and their past involvement with the region will not be decisive," Vladisavljev concludes.

He emphasizes that Scandinavian diplomats have previously dealt with the region and have experience, thus their selection for this role is not surprising.

"Let's remember Martti Ahtisaari. We know that this topic is not unfamiliar to them. However, first with the extension of Lajcak's mandate, and then with the withdrawal of some potential candidates who were seen as favorites, it increasingly seems to me that whoever takes over the leadership of the dialogue, inherits a hot potato that may be difficult to untangle in the coming period," says Vladisavljev.

He adds that the choice of envoy also depends on how the USA approaches the issue of relations between Belgrade and Pristina. According to his assessment, not only is a diplomat who can communicate with both sides needed, but also one who can establish communication with Washington.

Commenting on EU announcements that the future envoy will deal exclusively with dialogue issues and not other regional issues, Vladisavljev notes that Lajcak's focus was primarily on the dialogue.

"It seems that Miroslav Lajcak was primarily engaged in the dialogue and was most recognized and involved in that process. What remains, and is very important to mention, is the enlargement process. The appointment of a Commissioner for Enlargement is a new role and he will have significantly more work on that side. Therefore, the envoy will probably focus more on specific issues, namely on the dialogue question, as we do not have other open bilateral challenges of that kind in the Western Balkans region," concluded Vladisavljev.

Afrim Hoti, a professor of international relations at the University of Pristina, assessed for Kosovo Online that Miroslav Lajcak did not hold a neutral position regarding the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, and that his successor should come from a country with greater influence in the EU.

Although he had doubts about his neutrality, Hoti admits that Lajcak, nevertheless, achieved certain success.

"In any case, we must say that he was successful, at least because he managed to lead the process and reach an agreement between Kosovo's Prime Minister Kurti and Serbia's President Vučic. In this sense, I think that was Mr. Lajcak’s greatest success," our interlocutor highlighted.

Speaking about the future of the dialogue, Hoti presented two possible scenarios for the next steps of the European Union.

"The first is that the EU will appoint someone who comes from a country that recognizes Kosovo's independence, but primarily from a country that has influence and power in the EU. That would be the first scenario," he said.

However, according to Hoti, the second scenario is more likely.

"I think that due to the really complicated issue, the EU will opt for the second scenario, which means that the dialogue will be led directly by Ms. Kalas. So, there will be no mediator at all," concluded Hoti.

Although he does not believe that Kalas will lead the negotiations, Aleksa Grubesic from the Center for Social Stability agrees that she will play a significant role in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

"Given that the Commissioner for Foreign and Security Policy is the former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalas, it can be expected that the future negotiator will be from a country that recognizes Kosovo, unlike Slovakia, from where Lajcak is," says Grubesic for Kosovo Online.

He emphasizes that such a choice sends a clear signal about the European Union's policy towards the Kosovo issue.

"Besides the fact that Estonia recognizes the independence of Kosovo, Kalas personally follows an agenda in which the policy of an independent Kosovo must be fully implemented at all costs, and that the dialogue should exclusively lead to Kosovo gaining full independence," the analyst explains.

Asked whether the choice of a new negotiator could bring progress in the dialogue, our interlocutor answers that he does not believe anything will change for Serbia.

"At least it will not bring anything good. I am speaking, of course, about Brussels. What I expect more in this case, is a change in Washington's policy, namely that their negotiator and Trump's political initiative might lead to some improvements," he said.

He reminded us of the period when President Trump's special envoy, Richard Grenell, played a significant role in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, which, he claims, had a positive impact on the situation.

"This is something that suits the Serbs, as we are the side that initiates resolving everything through the economy via the Open Balkan initiative, and to set aside those conflicts, to see how we can normalize the situation, and make life better for all citizens, both Serbs and Albanians," Grubesic notes.

He suggests that a greater U.S. initiative could bring better results than the EU approach and emphasizes that he does not expect much from Brussels and their negotiators.

"From the European Union and their imposed negotiators, we can only expect empty words that will not be substantiated by anything," he concludes.