Global trends, the region, and provocations threatening peace: What awaits the new president of North Macedonia?

Written for Kosovo Online by: Zeljko Sajn

The campaign for the second round of presidential elections in North Macedonia is underway, set for May 8, coinciding with the parliamentary elections of the country, which could bring about changes in both domestic and foreign policy. However, whoever the people choose to lead them into a brighter future, which includes joining the European Union, will face the issue of amending the Constitution, as required by the French-German proposal for the continuation of North Macedonia's European integration, as well as the firm demand of the Albanian political entity, which advocates for the future election of the president to be decided by the deputies of the Sobranje.

In the first round of the presidential elections, Gordana Siljanovska Davkova achieved a decisive victory, garnering almost twice as many votes as the current president, Stevo Pendarovski. It is worth recalling that this political duo also competed for the presidential chair five years ago, when the people helped Pendarovski reach his goal. Now, the citizens are faced with the same choice, and we will see whether the circumstances in which the country has since found itself will determine the majority's vote to continue Pendarovski's political direction, the candidate from the SDSM party, or to lean towards the presidential vision of Gordana Siljanovska Davkova, who has the support of the largest opposition party, VMRO-DPMNE. We will find out on May 8.

Certainly, what the pre-election polls predicted – was confirmed by the voice of the people, which indicated dissatisfaction with the achievements of the current president's term. It is also important to note that in the first electoral round, Pendarovski ran as an SDSM candidate, without the support of the Albanian coalition party in power, since it had its candidate – Bujar Osmani, the foreign minister, who placed third.

The decision to nominate Osmani was actually prompted by Albin Kurti through consultations with leaders of the Albanian opposition in Pristina, when it was decided that the Albanian opposition bloc would be represented by Dr. Arben Taravari. Therefore, the Albanian voting body was divided between two candidates from the Albanian ranks, which hindered Osmani from advancing to the second round.

According to polls and analytical estimates, the most likely to win the second round are again Gordana Siljanovska Davkova and the VMRO-DPMNE party, which is expected to win the largest number of deputies in parliament. If such forecasts come true, VMRO-DPMNE could appoint the prime minister and form the government. The leader of this party, Hristijan Mickoski, has called for national Macedonian unity, primarily involving the "Znam" association and the Left party. Based on the votes their presidential candidates achieved, there is hope that they can win more than eight seats. If they join forces with the largest opposition parliamentary party, VMRO-DPMNE, which is close to winning the largest number of seats in parliament, these three parties could form a simple majority of 61 deputies. A two-thirds majority would require the support of another Albanian party. It is presumed that it could be the Albanian opposition, with Taravari at the helm.

One should not overlook the fact that the Albanian opposition enjoys the trust of Albin Kurti, who uses it as a bridge to expand activities into the territory of North Macedonia. Kurti is in conflict with the Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, among other reasons, because Kurti is aiming for a political position in Albania, and also due to the "Open Balkan" initiative, which is a thorn in Kurti's side, and he significantly resents Rama for establishing good relations with Vučić. Additionally, Kurti is not on the same page as Ali Ahmeti, the leader of the Albanian party in power, DUI, at least when it comes to governance and who will be the leader of the Albanians in this region. Last year in Tetovo, Kurti was proclaimed the president of all Albanians by the Albanian opposition, which has given him a boost to pursue the realization of Demaçi's dream of a "greater Albania."

The Albanian political factor in North Macedonia is undoubtedly growing stronger. The Macedonian political scene often resembles a theatrical stage, and now, just before the elections, the premiere of the play "Macedonian Sobranje," directed by the DUI party, was held. This simulation of the highest legislative and constitutional body in North Macedonia, the Sobranje, sent clear messages about its vision of state hierarchy.

Albanian parties, both in power and in opposition, are united in the pressure to amend the Constitution to include Bulgarians as a constitutive element, opening the door to further European integration, and to include changes regarding the future presidential election in the Sobranje.

With all these pressures, the new head of state, whom the people will vote for on May 8th, will be confronted. Both factions, VMRO-DPMNE, which supports presidential candidate Gordana Siljanovska Davkova, and SDSM, which backs Pedarovski, are united in the vision that the country belongs to the European Union. However, what separates them, and what separates, above all, their voters, is their attitude towards the conditions imposed on that path. Although SDSM has agreed to all the demands imposed on the country by the EU, the US, and NATO, the citizens of North Macedonia are still in the waiting room of the European Union, and in response to the pressure for a new change in the Constitution, with which the VMRO-DPMNE party disagrees, they have clearly expressed their opinion on this issue. The hypocrisy of the European Union could cost the current government its place, and the scenario of watching from the opposition ranks VMRO-DPMNE.

Certainly, the new president of North Macedonia, in addition to domestic issues, will also face global trends and regional relations and provocations that threaten peace in the Balkans.