Messages from Paris: What does the France-Serbia partnership mean for the Kosovo issue, and how do Berlin and London view it?

"How much can be expected from France in the short term regarding the convergence of different political views with Serbia will be seen in the case of the announced May declaration on the admission of Pristina to the Council of Europe."

Prepared by: Milos Garic

The defense industry, energy production, IT sector, and agriculture are a huge and extremely important area where France and Serbia will strongly develop strategic partnership in the coming period. The close economic ties between the two countries will also affect a new quality of political understanding, which is of invaluable importance to Belgrade, primarily because of the significant challenges regarding Kosovo and the Republic of Srpska.

This would be one of the most important conclusions from the recently concluded visit of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to France, where he was welcomed and hosted at a high official and friendly level by the currently most influential European leader, Emmanuel Macron.

In terms of developing key economic potentials, therefore, the Paris meeting between the two presidents has provided significant support. However, it is equally important for Serbian state and national interests that the political pulse of official Paris towards Belgrade's positions shows enough reason for optimism. This is especially true in the context of extremely dramatic processes on a global level.

The firm and known positions of the West towards the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, about the responsibility of "both sides", the Banjska, and the necessity of implementing the Ohrid plan, which Macron again presented as a starting basis, were skillfully turned into a counterargument by Vucic in front of the cameras. He explained to his French colleague where things are getting stuck and why Albin Kurti and Pristina are the address from which one must start when talking about the causes of dialogue blockage, the collapse of agreements, and tensions on the ground.

Whether this was just an (un)expected ceremonial repetition of the official Western mantra regarding Kosovo, we cannot know for sure. Still, Macron, it turns out, thus provided Vucic with an opportunity, whose experience and direct approach once again proved to be very important in such moments. How the conversation continued behind closed doors and how much can be expected from France in the short term regarding political disagreements with Serbia, we will find out during the announced May declaration on the admission of Pristina to the Council of Europe. In any case, the French president agreed with Vucic's insistence on forming the Community of Serb Municipalities, as the most important condition for the Kosovo authorities, which is an obligation from the Brussels Agreement of 2013, and how the final voting of the Council of Europe ministers will proceed remains to be seen.

About what it means to "tie the Serbian boat to the big French ship," undoubtedly, there will be much talk in the time to come. What is clear is that Serbia needs support among the most important Western European countries, and this support, it is also clear, politically cannot come from Berlin and London. The presence of the German economy in Serbia is very strong, dominating the influence of this country, but alongside the United Kingdom, it has some other focal points in the Balkans and both are certainly dealing with great interest in the potential reach of the French-Serbian connection.

France as the political and military leader of Europe

Historian and political analyst Srđan Graovac agrees that Vucic's visit to Paris, in the way it was organized and with the topics that predominated, has great significance for both sides at this moment.

"The construction of a strategic partnership between Serbia and France, on which President Vucic is working hard, and we see that there is also understanding from President Macron who showed deep respect for the Serbian president and Serbia during this visit, is something of exceptional importance for Serbia. We should not ignore the fact that France is definitely the political and military leader, the most influential country on the continent. Germany is the engine of Europe, economically, but on the other hand, politically and militarily, France has greater significance," Graovac points out for Context.

He notes that this should be added to the fact that the German economy is increasingly faltering under the influence of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions that Western countries have imposed on Russia, now without cheap Russian energy resources.

"The loss of the Russian market is causing headaches for the German industry. In perspective, the French economic power may grow faster than the German. In that regard, France can, if not completely catch up with Germany, then certainly significantly approach it. Taking all this into account, of course, we understand how important the construction of a strategic partnership between Serbia and France is, and of course, it should not be viewed only through economic significance, economic ties, because political ties are something that is strengthened with the help of the economy and something that is built upon established economic cooperation, and President Vucic understands this very well," Graovac explains.

Therefore, he says, there is an emphasis on military cooperation with France, as well as on the economic interconnection between Serbia and France.

“To ensure that this political upgrading later becomes significantly easier on these economic and security ties, and to gain more understanding from France regarding our national interests, primarily those related to preserving our territorial integrity concerning Kosovo and Metohija, where our positions currently fully diverge from France's. Similarly, regarding the Republic of Srpska and the issue of Bosnia and Herzegovina, we do not have France's understanding, but in any case, this is an attempt to correct that, to change the current reality. First through economic, military, and security cooperation, to create the preconditions for a political upgrade,” emphasizes Graovac.

He adds that there is a well-founded basis for this in history.

“We have had periods of misunderstanding, but much longer periods of partnership and alliance. Taking all that into account, of course, we have certain foundations on which we can build an alliance. The economic and security aspect of military cooperation is very important, and as a result of all this, a political alliance should eventually emerge, which should also ensure greater understanding from Paris for Serbian national interests, which is of vital importance to us. We need to have such a country by our side. France is, I repeat, one of the two most powerful economies in the European Union, but politically and militarily, it is certainly the most influential country in Europe. In that sense, it surpasses Germany. Do not overlook the fact, for example, how important a role Germany played for Croatia in the process of its Euro-integration. So, it would certainly be good if France could play such a strategically important role for us,” concluded Graovac.

Promotion of Serbian positions

Sociologist Vladimir Vuletic points out that the partnership and close relations between Serbia and France have existed for some time, but it is important that now, in practice, this is realized by strengthening political, economic, and security ties.

“What, of course, needs to be considered is that this does not mean that France will now immediately change some of its views, which are common with the rest of the West in the region. However, it should mean that in redefining, if it is possible to talk about some solution to current problems, France will much more promote what the Serbian position is, what the position of the Republic of Serbia is. This is what we have lacked so far,” notes Vuletic for Kontekst.

It is extremely important, he adds, to have someone who will advocate for you at significant forums where crucial decisions are made, sometimes even in very important details.

“That is what I would say is now the most important thing when it comes to this matter. It is important to note that our president was welcomed at such a high level in Paris. This visit was much more than the usual arrivals of foreign dignitaries, who often just pass-through. However, keep in mind that we should not now harbor illusions that this will overnight change Serbia's position, that all our wishes and ambitions will be adopted, that France will now stand against America, Germany. But, I expect that our positions will be successfully promoted, as much as possible. That is the most important thing,” concludes Vuletic.