U.S.–Saudi relations in a new context

Written for Kosovo Online by Habib al Hadi

During U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed visit to Saudi Arabia, the relationship between the two countries once again takes center stage—this time, however, within a more complex regional and international framework. The world has changed significantly since his first visit eight years ago and so has Saudi Arabia. Although the relationship has been described as the “alliance of the century,” current indicators lead some analysts to claim it is now at a crossroads, given the surrounding challenges and opportunities. The Kingdom is no longer just an arms buyer or passive player in global affairs. It is now a hub of diplomacy, a laboratory of reforms, and a partner in shaping a more balanced global order.

This visit also affirms the personal bond between the U.S. president and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Arab media reported nearly a decade ago that their relationship began before either man rose to a decisive role in their respective countries—Trump as U.S. President, and Mohammed bin Salman as Crown Prince. Prior to Trump’s election, then-Saudi Defense Minister bin Salman sent a delegation to Washington to meet with Trump and essentially placed the Kingdom’s resources at the disposal of the future president. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner—then his Middle East envoy—played a key role in that, forming a close relationship with his young Saudi counterpart, and reportedly helping him secure the position of Crown Prince despite more powerful and experienced princes being ahead in the royal line of succession. In that sense, this visit also serves to reaffirm an alliance that has, thus far, stood the test of time.

Despite the populist rhetoric Trump brought with him in his first term, Saudi Arabia was able to understand his priorities and personal style, and the relationship evolved into what Trump described as a “personal friendship” with the Saudi leadership.

Mamdouh Al-Muhaini, a Saudi writer and director of the Al Arabiya network, emphasized that one of the keys to Trump’s influential perception of other countries and individuals was “respect and recognition of him as a strong U.S. president”—especially after the U.S. elite remained hostile to him and refused to acknowledge him as legitimate. That recognition, in Saudi Arabia, was never lacking.

The visit comes 100 days into Trump’s second term, a period marked by strong signals regarding his approach to allies. He has imposed tariffs on most countries around the world, including traditional U.S. partners such as Europe, Canada, and the Gulf states.

In this context, Saudi media have adopted the portrayal of Trump as a “predatory friend” who does not hesitate to treat allies as harshly as adversaries. There are concerns he might bring such an approach to Riyadh. This reflects a broader ambiguity in U.S. foreign policy during Trump’s second term—especially in the Middle East, a region known for its geopolitical complexities, made even more volatile now by Israel’s actions, which continue to escalate tensions despite promises of peace and the de-escalation efforts of moderate states led by Saudi Arabia.

For Saudi Arabia, the visit comes at a pivotal moment. The Kingdom is at the forefront of regional issues in Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Sudan, while dealing with a persistent escalation between Israel and Tehran—all while implementing its ambitious Vision 2030 national transformation plan. Therefore, according to Abdulaziz bin Saqr, head of the Gulf Research Center specializing in U.S. Gulf policy, ties with Washington take on a vital and cautious character. “Saudi Arabia views its alliance with Washington as a balancing factor, not a permanent guarantee,” he says, “which drives it to diversify its partners without jeopardizing its traditional relationship.”

The region thus looks to a strong Trump who might be able to rein in Netanyahu. Recent developments, however, have heightened concerns about Trump’s diminishing influence over the peace process he promised since his first term.

Reports in the Israeli media suggest deteriorating ties between Trump and Netanyahu, claiming the Israeli prime minister is trying to “manipulate” Trump and has failed to fulfill key agreements—such as normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, which would necessitate ending the bombing of Gaza and the abuse of its people. Consequently, Trump reportedly excluded Israel from negotiations with Iran and concluded a deal with the Houthis without involving Israel. The Jerusalem Post even reported that Trump may recognize Palestine during his current Middle East tour—a move he had been teasing as a major announcement ahead of his visit. On May 10, however, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Michael Huckabee denied this report.

Given the history between Trump and Netanyahu, such a rift is hard to believe. As the story emerges just before Trump’s tour of the Gulf states—whose support he especially counts on for his Middle East policy—it is more likely that these reports aim to ease the anticipated pressure from KSA, UAE, and Qatar over Trump’s stance on Israel and its actions in Palestine, granting him more room to negotiate, especially during talks in Riyadh.

Trump has long declared that Saudi Arabia will invest a full trillion dollars in the U.S. Having appeared at several Saudi-hosted events, it is now expected that Trump will fulfill some Saudi demands. The Palestinian issue remains one of the most pressing. Another key topic for KSA is peaceful cooperation in nuclear energy development. It has already been announced that the U.S. no longer links peaceful nuclear cooperation agreements to the normalization of ties with Israel.

Still, the Palestinian question remains unresolved.

Ahead of Trump’s arrival, a Palestinian delegation led by Palestine’s Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh visited Jeddah to meet with Crown Prince MbS. Their discussions centered on Trump’s visit to KSA and the demands the Saudis should present on behalf of the Palestinians. Chief among them was the immediate humanitarian relief for Gaza and an end to what they called the “genocide” being committed by “Israeli occupiers.” Later, a second conclusion emerged—clearly coordinated with the Crown Prince—when al-Sheikh stated that Hamas must lay down its arms and that nonviolent resistance would henceforth be the only strategy for Palestinians and their movement.

The main event of the first day was the U.S.–Saudi Investment Forum, which brought together top executives and corporations from both countries—from Elon Musk, Larry Fink, Stephen Schwarzman, Jane Fraser, Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, to the mayor of Miami, Francis Suarez. The forum was held at the famed Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh, where 300 of the country’s richest and most powerful individuals were detained in 2017–2018 on corruption charges. The Saudi side announced plans to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years—less than the full trillion Trump had hoped for. On the first day alone, contracts worth $300 million were signed.

Trump delivered his main speech on Tuesday afternoon, and on Wednesday continued his stay in Riyadh with meetings involving leaders of other Gulf states before proceeding to Doha and Abu Dhabi. His speech was repeatedly interrupted by applause, especially when he spoke about Iran and the Saudi Crown Prince. “The future of the Middle East starts here,” the U.S. President proclaimed. He described himself as a peacemaker who wouldn’t hesitate to use the world’s most powerful military if the U.S. or its allies were attacked or threatened. Trump sharply criticized Iran, warning it would never obtain nuclear weapons, and labeled it “the greatest and most destructive force” in the Middle East responsible for immense suffering in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Yemen, and beyond. “Iran must choose between continued chaos and terror or the path to peace,” Trump warned. He called this a “final warning and a potential opportunity for diplomacy,” which was met with enthusiastic applause.

Trump sharply contrasted Saudi Arabia with Iran, calling Saudi actions a “constructive vision” as opposed to the “collapse and suffering” fostered by Iranian leadership.

“There’s no starker contrast than the path you’ve chosen here on the Arabian Peninsula versus the disaster unfolding across the Gulf in Iran,” Trump said, drawing more ovations.

The crowd was especially stirred when Trump announced an immediate lifting of sanctions on Syria, offering the country a chance for a new beginning—crediting his host for the decision. The Crown Prince responded with a gesture of gratitude—arms crossed over his chest—that quickly spread across the Middle East and went viral on social media.

Trump then applauded his audience, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman rose to join the applause, sparking a standing ovation for Trump. The moment visibly touched the U.S. president. “This is what I do for your Crown Prince,” Trump responded.

Above all, Trump sought to present himself as a reconciler. He even announced he may join the Russian and Ukrainian presidents in Istanbul on Thursday, May 15—if both are present.

The visit, in both timing and substance, is a test of whether the “alliance of the century” can be revived in real terms—not just symbolic ones. The region is changing rapidly, Trump is no traditional president, and Saudi Arabia has made significant progress in its reforms. Its annual Vision 2030 report, released just weeks ago, documented that 374 indicators have already been met or are close to their targets. While the two sides’ interests intersect in matters of security and the economy, the key question remains: Can they transform their “historic alliance” into a sustainable future partnership?